Will Afghan Election Results Spark Violence?

As Afghanistan prepares for a elections this week, it is faced with the twin specters of an escalating insurgency and the threat of post-ballot political unrest.

A major suicide bombing rocked the capital, Kabul, on Saturday, August 15, killing at least ten and injuring 100 more. Fighting has broken out in various regions around the country, a rocket attack has closed the airport in Herat, and candidates are starting to cancel campaign appearances for fear of assassination attempts.

With concerns over low voter turnout and widespread fraud plaguing the process, many are beginning to question whether the presidential and provincial council elections on August 20 will have any legitimacy among the population.

And remarks by some senior members of the presidential candidates’ campaigns, notably from a representative of one of the main challengers, have raised the possibility of mass protests if the results are seen as having been rigged.

The first of the warnings signals came in a late July interview in The National, a newspaper based in the United Arab Emirates, UAE, with the campaign manager for leading presidential contender Dr Abdullah Abdullah told a reporter that his faction would not recognize the re-election of the incumbent president Hamed Karzai.

“We will not accept it,” Abdul Satar Murad told the newspaper. “[Karzai] cannot win unless he resorts to large-scale corruption. So we will not accept that. The nation is not voting for him. He only gets votes through his governors and by corruption.”

Karzai is the clear favorite in the poll, and is almost certain to secure another term in office. The only serious question is whether Abdullah can pull enough votes to deprive the president of a first-round victory.

In 2004, Karzai easily triumphed over a field of 17 challengers, gaining 54 per cent of the vote on election day. According to the constitution, if no candidate received more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two will face off in a second round.

The possibility of a runoff has appeared more likely in recent weeks. Officials from the Independent Election Commission, IEC, have said privately that the campaign will continue for “a few more months”, and two recent opinion polls suggest that Karzai does not command the voting strength to gain a first-round win.

But Abdullah’s camp has put up an unexpectedly strong showing, and, according to Murad, will be prepared to protest if things do not go their way.

”There will be a big demonstration,” he told The National. “[There will be] street demonstrations, and it will turn bad. The country will land in the middle of a crisis.”

But the major candidates, including Abdullah himself, have backed away from any threat of violence.

“We look to the stability of Afghanistan as a necessity for every move and change,” Abdullah told the media shortly after the interview in The National. “We will never do anything under any circumstances which threatens stability in Afghanistan.”

Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, another top presidential contender, told IWPR in early June that Afghans “would not take any attempt to steal the election lying down”, but his campaign manager, Ajmal Abedi, has insisted his people would not resort to any attempt to foment violent protests.

“We strongly oppose post-election violence,” Abedi said. “Maybe there will be fraud during the elections, but we should be patient, and not go towards violence. We should solve the issue through legal channels.”

Karzai’s campaign dismisses any allegations of attempted fraud, and says that such rumors are circulated to serve certain candidates’ political interests.