As U.S. Troops Focus on South, Insurgency Gaining Ground in Afghan North

While British and American forces concentrate their efforts in southern Afghanistan, the once-peaceful north is fast spiralling out of control with the Taleban making a number of important gains.

They include the town of Chahrdara in Kunduz province, where a recent visitor reports that the Taleban have set up their own administration to rival that loyal to the central government, complete with tax collection and a court system.

The northern provinces -- Balkh, Kunduz, Jowzjan, Faryab, Sar-e-Pul and Baghlan -- have seen a surge in violence over the past few months, with suicide attacks, armed assaults and roadside bombs, and the insurgency appears to be gaining ground.

At the same time, the attention of the Afghan and international military remains firmly focused on the south. Last week, the Americans unleashed a major offensive, Operation Khanjar (Dagger Thrust), in the Helmand River valley, the poppy-rich area that supplies more than half the world’s opium.

Also in Helmand, the British are fighting a bitter battle around the capital, Lashkar Gah. Operation Panchai Palang (Panther’s Claw) has claimed the lives of several soldiers, including a high-ranking commander, in the past few days.

But while the war in the south consumes valuable time and resources, the north could spiral out of control, warn international experts.

Gilles Dorronsoro, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has recently released a study of the Afghan insurgency warning of the dangers of ignoring the normally peaceful northern provinces.

“The strength of the insurgency makes the current coalition strategy of focusing its reinforcements in the south (Helmand and Kandahar) risky to say the least. The Taleban will move the insurgency to the north,” he argues in his new study, called The Taleban’s Winning Strategy in Afghanistan.

Over the past several years, the north has experienced many of the same problems that have fuelled the insurgency in the southern part of the country.

Promised assistance has been slow to materialise; unemployment is high and the central government is weak and cannot rein in commanders or warlords who terrorise the populations under their control.

All of these factors, say local officials, are contributing to the rise of the Taleban and other anti-government rebellions in the north.

While most agree that the problems are increasing, there is little consensus on the reasons.

“We have many indicators that the insurgents have increased their operations in the north,” said Engineer Mohammad Omar, governor of Kunduz. “The Taleban are able to recruit those who have lost their jobs and need money.”

General Mohammad Khalil Aminzada, provincial chief of police for Jowzjan, told IWPR that fear was driving people into the arms of the insurgency. Local strongmen have joined the Taleban, he said, out of opposition to the central government. Ordinary people therefore have nowhere to turn since the government cannot protect them.

“People support the Taleban because they have to,” said Aminzada. “There are not enough police, and we cannot ensure their security. They are afraid.”

Some experts say the police training programme has been one of the major failures of the post-Taleban years.

Richard Holbrooke, United States special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, has publicly called the Afghan police “the weak link in the security chain” and “an inadequate organisation, riddled with corruption”. Now, as the insurgents spread out through the country, the deficiencies of Afghanistan’s own security forces are being felt very keenly.

General Ghulam Mujtaba Patang, chief of police in the north, dismisses reports that the Taleban are actually gaining ground.