Why a New Water Project in China May Be a Catastrophe in Waiting

By Christina Larson, Yale Environment 360. Posted January 12, 2009.

Yong later explained to me how science was conducted within his bureau. "The government, they will make a goal. Then their researchers think their job is just to say it works. Everybody will just say the good word, and try to find data to support it," he said. "It's not a very scientific way of doing research."

What prompted Yong to think about conducting research independently was his participation in a series of boat trips down the Yangtze River in 1986, in conjunction with teams of international scientists and environmentalists. The "adventure," as he calls it, steeled his nerves (before his team's trip, five people had died trying to navigate the same course), reinforced his regard for nature's splendor and danger, and introduced him to the international scientific community and global environmental literature. Soon after, he quit his government job to work full-time as an independent geologist, focusing on environmental risk assessment and collaborating with international organizations including Arizona State University and the UK Great Nature Society.

His scientific research has spanned many regions of China, but always Yong has returned to the Yangtze. On his recent winter expedition, Yong's team traced every bend in the western reaches of the river. The previous summer they had traveled roughly the same route, so they could compare water levels in different seasons. On both trips they collected data on rainfall, geology, receding glaciers, and other trends that affect the volume of water in the river.

Based on his analysis of the available data -- from his own research, and from 30 years' worth of reports from hydrology monitoring stations -- Yong believes that the planned western route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project won't work. Through friends who still work for the government, he obtained copies of two official government plans for the project. These blueprints, he says, are based upon data he calls "completely unreasonable."

As Yong explained, along this section of the upper Yangtze, the government's plans call for diverting between 8 and 9 billion cubic meters of water north each year. However, his research indicates that the average annual water flow for that section of the river includes a low estimate of 7 billion cubic meters per year. This would mean that when the river flow is low, the government would be hoping to divert an amount of water greater than the total annual volume in the river.

Yong is surely not alone in doubting the feasibility of the final section of the water-diversion project. More than 50 scientists in Sichuan contributed to a 2006 book, South-to-North Water Transfer Project Western Route Memorandums. The collection of scientific articles and reports raises serious concerns about construction at high altitudes, seismic stability, pollution in the Yangtze, climate change (the river's volume is expected to diminish as Tibet's glaciers melt), and the potential for reduced river flow to shutter hundreds of downstream hydropower stations.

No matter whose figures are correct, what worries Yong most is that there is no open, independent system in place to determine whether such a colossal and disruptive undertaking will work. For now, discussion of the project, handled by the government's Yellow River Conservancy Commission, continues to take place behind closed doors. Last year, Yong tried to open a channel of communication to ask how officials had arrived at their figures, but the commission's staffers refused to respond. "They just emphasize that there won't be much problem," he said.

With its authoritarian government, China has both advantages and disadvantages in confronting its massive environmental challenges. "On the one hand, ambitious projects can be more quickly implemented, and when they work, can do so on an astonishing scale," says Dr. Zhao Jianping, sector coordinator for energy in the World Bank's China Office. "On the other hand, there's no system of checks and balances. So if you make a mistake, it might not become apparent for several years, after which it's very difficult to change course and avert disastrous consequences."

For now, Yong is reaching out to environmentalists like Yu and others whom he hopes can help transmit his concerns to the authorities. Whether or not independent scientists, or even government scientists who question official plans, will be permitted to have any influence over future public policy remains to be seen. As Yong says, "Science is the most damning kind of criticism."

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Christina Larson is a journalist focusing on international environmental issues. Her reporting has brought her to seven provinces across China, as well as cities and villages in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Greece. Her writing has appeared in The New York Times, The New Republic, Christian Science Monitor, China Environment Series, and The Washington Monthly, where she is a contributing editor.

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