Consortium Muddles Recount, Again

The long-awaited media recount of disputed ballots from the 2000 presidential vote in Florida has provided only a little new information regarding the election result. Despite investing almost $1 million and 10 months of effort in a review of uncounted Florida ballots, the conclusions of a consortium of major newspaper and broadcast partners were generally inconclusive.

But that did not prevent some of the consortium partners from issuing headlines that declared a victor in the unsettled contest between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.

As during the actual recount process last fall, the media's rush to judgement ended up identifying a "winner" who under the most democratic scenarios was actually the loser.

Consider the "news" presented Monday morning in the form of headlines on front pages, Web sites and broadcasts of several consortium members:

"Florida recount study: Bush still wins," declared CNN.

"Study: Recounts Would Have Favored Bush," mused The Washington Post.

"Recount: Bush," announced The St. Petersburg Times.

The trouble with these certain statements is that they are not backed up by the articles above which they appear. As with a media recount conducted earlier this year by The Miami Herald and Knight Ridder, the determination of most consortium members to make definitive statements created false impressions of what the data revealed.

The consortium-sponsored analysis of roughly 62,000 undervotes (ballots that appeared to reveal no choice) and roughly 113,000 overvotes (ballots where voters appeared to indicate preferences for more than one candidate) was never in a position to identify a clear winner. Only a review of all 6.1 million ballots cast in the November 7, 2000, election could have claimed to do that.

However, the consortium's count has confirmed what savvy observers have known since last fall:

* The contest in Florida was exceptionally close. In an election that saw more than 6.1 million Florida voters cast ballots, no recount scenario favored Bush or Gore by more than 1,700 votes. Under the likeliest of scenarios, neither Bush nor Gore won even by as much as the 537-vote margin certified by Florida Secretary of State -- and Bush campaign co-chair -- Katherine Harris. As University of Texas government professor Walter Dean Burnham, one of the nation's foremost experts on electoral politics explained it: "You had the perfect tie. When you've got an election this close, the most sensible way to determine the outcome is to flip a coin."

* Election information can be read in many ways. Media outlets varied broadly in their analysis of the data provided by the NORC researchers. While most opted for some variation on CNN's certain affirmation of presidential legitimacy -- "Bush still wins" -- sober voices refrained from pegging a winner with such certainty. The Associated Press account hit the wires under the headline, "Florida Vote Review Shows Barest Margins." The Chicago Tribune probably won the accuracy competition with the declaration that: "Ballots, rules, voter error led to 2000 election muddle, review shows."

* Using various scenarios established for determining whether chads were adequately detached from punchcard ballots, the precision with which votes had to be marked on optically scanned ballots, the identification of the intent of "overvote" ballots, and the number of judges required to make a determination regarding a ballots' condition, both Gore and Bush came up winners. Under some of the strictest standards -- including those proposed by the Bush camp during last year's recount fight -- Gore won. For instance, under a scenario where punchcard ballots were only counted if chads were fully detached and optical scan ballots were only counted if choices were precisely marked, the consortium count showed Gore prevailing by 154 votes statewide.