George W. Bush: The Un-science Guy

In 1984, Ronald Reagan's reelection team aired a fiendishly clever campaign ad. The television spot showed a large bear lumbering through the forest, and a disembodied male voice warned, "There is a bear in the woods. For some people, the bear is easy to see. Others don't see it at all. Some people say the bear is tame, others say it is vicious and dangerous. Since no one can really be sure who is right, isn't it smart to be as strong as the bear -- if there is a bear." Then the image shifted to a hunter facing the bear and the words appeared: "President Reagan: Prepared for Peace."

That Reagan commercial, which became a classic of political propaganda, effectively and elegantly captured the arguments of Cold War hawks. Who could know about the Soviet Union's true intentions? The prudent course was to assume the Russkies were bent on world domination and hankering for (nuclear) war and, then, act and arm accordingly. Why risk being wrong? You could end up bear food.

Of course, the ad was simplistic (a fitting tribute to its main beneficiary). Arms control is a bit more complicated than grizzly hunting. And, as it turned out, there was no bear in the woods to fear. The real bear was sclerotic, bleeding internally, and near collapse. Still, the spot suggested conservatives believed in being responsible and planning for worst-case scenarios. Such caution, though, rarely extends beyond conventional national security topics. Which brings us to global warming.

As George W. Bush prepared for his recent trip to Europe, he and his advisers continued to dismiss the science underlying the calls for reducing greenhouse gases. The general consensus in the field of climate science, reflected in the work on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (an international body comprised of hundreds of scientists), is that global temperatures are on the rise -- and may climb 10 degrees Fahrenheit this century -- and that this increase is, to some degree, a result of human-induced emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases. While there is a small number of contrarian scientists who either argue otherwise or question the basic models, it is undeniable that most experts concur there is a bear in the woods.

Moreover, it is clear that the consequences of an extra 10 degrees would be horrific -- rising sea levels, the dislocation of coastal populations, the spread of tropical diseases, the eradication of species, severe weather, drought, disruption of ocean currents -- and that reducing the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would require implementing extensive measures (mainly dramatic reductions in emissions) soon and maintaining these remedies over a long period of time.

So where is that bear-in-the-woods attitude now? Some people say global warming is a danger. Some people say it is not. Since no one can be really sure -- until it's too late to do anything about it -- isn't it smart to address the threat?

Instead, Bush calls for more studies -- even after the latest study confirmed the existing consensus. On June 6, as Bush was skimming through Let's Go Europe and practicing the pronunciation of the names of Europe's leaders (did his tutors skip Spain?), the National Academy of Sciences released a report on global warming that Bush had requested. Bush did not have to read too far to get the drift. Here are the opening sentences:

"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes are also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century."

If Bush reached the last paragraph of the first page, he would have read, "The committee generally agrees with the assessment of human-caused climate change presented in the IPCC...report."