Election 2008  
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Results: The Senate, House and Ballot Measures

What's happening with prop. 8 in CA ... 254 (D), 172 (R) in the House with only 8 to go ... Senate still 56 (D) 40 (R) with 4 to go.
 
 
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As the official numbers are calculated, we'll give you the run-down of the results for Senate races, House races, and important ballot measures. We are updating this story with the most recent coverage as it becomes available, so book mark this page and check back throughout the day and night. And please let us know what you're keeping an eye on by posting in the comments below.

Here we go:

Update 11:37pm(PST): The AP is reporting that Prop. 8 has passed:

In an election otherwise full of liberal triumphs, the gay rights movement suffered a stunning defeat as California voters approved a ban on same-sex marriages that overrides a recent court decision legalizing them.

The constitutional amendment -- widely seen as the most momentous of the nation's 153 ballot measures -- will limit marriage to heterosexual couples, the first time such a vote has taken place in a state where gay unions are legal.

Gay-rights activists had a rough election elsewhere as well. Ban-gay-marriage amendments were approved in Arizona and Florida, and Arkansas voters approved a measure banning unmarried couples from serving as adoptive or foster parents. Supporters made clear that gays and lesbians were their main target.

In California, with 95 percent of precincts reporting Wednesday, the ban had 5,125,752 votes, or 52 percent, while there were 4,725,313 votes, or 48 percent, opposed.

But the No on 8 campaign is saying this:

Roughly 400,000 votes separate yes from no on Prop 8 – out of 10 million votes tallied.

Based on turnout estimates reported yesterday, we expect that there are more than 3 million and possibly as many as 4 million absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted.

Given that fundamental rights are at stake, we must wait to hear from the Secretary of State tomorrow how many votes are yet to be counted as well as where they are from.

It is clearly a very close election and we monitored the results all evening and this morning.

As of this point, the election is too close to call.

***

Update 11:27am(PST): Minnick (D) flips a seat and will represent Idaho 1. Minnick only beat incumbent Republican Sali by a few thousand votes.

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Updated 10:54am(PST): 253 (D), 172 (R) in the House with only 9 to go.

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Update 9:13am(PST): In South Dakota, a measure that would ban most abortions failed. Also, in Colorado, the effort to define a fertilized egg as a person also failed.

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Update 8:36am(PST): The House is now 252 (D), 172 (R), with 11 too close to call. Senate: 56 (D), 40 (R), 4 too close to call.

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Update 8:27am(PST): Still no final results on Proposition 8, the same-sex marriage ban in California. From Governing.com:

Backers of Proposition 8, which would ban gay marriage in California, are declaring victory, while opponents say it's still too early to concede.
With 90 percent of precincts reporting early Wednesday, the ban had 4,922,675 votes, or 52 percent, to 4,577,453 votes, or 48 percent, against.

Late absentee and provisional ballots meant as many as 3 million ballots were left to be counted after all precinct votes were tallied.

Similar bans passed in Florida and Arizona yesterday.

***

Update 8:02am(PST): Wow. Looks like the Franken race is tight. From CNN:

Minnesota Senate challenger Al Franken is not conceding his race against incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman.

The two men are separated by less than 600 votes with 100 percent of the precincts reporting. The Associated Press called the race for Coleman Wednesday morning.

***

Update 7:34am(PST): A comment moved up from AlterNet reader Beck in Michigan:

I'm so proud to live in Michigan!

We voted for Obama big-time, passed a medical marijuana initiative, a stem-cell research initiative that had huge money against it, we unseated Joe Knollenberg, long-time Republican congressman, and got Hathaway on the state Supreme Court instead of Taylor, the conservative running against her.

I love my state. Thanks, everyone from Michigan.

***

Update 1:50am(PST): SFGate's tallies on proposition 8 aren't final, but they're disturbing.

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Update 1:16am(PST): Alright, here's where we're at just after 1am on the west coast ... and just before dawn on the east ... CNN is projecting that there are 56 Democrats and 40 Republicans lined up to take seats in the Senate, with 4 seat uncalled. As for the House, 251 seats have been captured by Democrats, and 171 by Republicans, which leaves only 13 still up for grabs.

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Update 12:58am(PST): Schauer (D) upsets incumbent Walberg (Republican incumbent) in Michigan's 7th district.

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Update 12:41am(PST): SFGate is reporting that over 52% of voters are voting against CA proposition 4, which is an attack on reproductive rights.

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Update 12:14am(PST): The hits just keep on coming kids. In OH-1 Driehaus (D) grabs a seat from Chabot, the Republican incumbent. In Nevada's 2nd Heller (R) keeps his seat as does Michigan 11's McCotter (R) and Ohio's 2nd Schmidt (R).

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Update 11:18pm(PST): There's still a lot out there: tune in to Alterent's main page to find out about Franken vs. Coleman, Prop. 8, and more.

***

Update 10:59pm(PST): Obama is the President Elect. The Senate is still at 56 (D), 40 (R), with 4 too close to call. The House, on the other hand, is at 240 (D), 162 (R), with 28 seats up in the air. CNN is saying that Bachmann (R) (of "anti-America" McCarthyism wanna be fame) is going to beat out Tinklenberg (D). Looks like dirty politics still work some of the time after all.

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Update 9:24pm(PST): 56 (D), 40 (R), 4 uncalled for the Senate. 230 (D), 143 (R), 62 uncalled for the House.

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Update 9:01pm(PST): CA-05=Matsui (D), AZ-5=Mitchell (D), Oregon 2=Walden (R), and Washington 7=McDermott (D). Udall (D) beats Schaffer (R) to steal a Senate seat for the Democrats from the Republicans.

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Update 8:52pm(PST): Networks are reporting a dead heat between Franken and Coleman. CNN is reporting 56 (D), 40 (R), 4 uncalled for the Senate. 202 (D), 130 (R), 103 uncalled for the House.

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Update 8:46pm(PST): Sorry about that ... bowed out for a moment given the breaking Presidential news. We're back, waiting to hear how CA will decide on Prop. 8, what's going to happen with Coleman vs. Franken, etc. Stay tuned.

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Update 8:01pm(PST) (Sidenote): CNN is reporting a win for Obama. Yes. He. Did.

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Update 7:58pm(PST): In New Jersey's 7th Republican Lance beat out Republican Larson. I wonder if that was a confusing ballot ... which Republican L guy would you go for? Alabama's 3rd stuck with Rogers (R), TX-23=Rodriguez (D), and NJ-2=Lobiondo (R).

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Update 7:51pm(PST): AZ-6=Flake (R), Kansas 1=Moran (R), Louisiana 7=Boustany (R), Illinois 8=Bean (D), Missouri-3=Carnahan (D).

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Update 7:44pm(PST): Johanns (R) beats out Democratic rancher Scott Kleeb to represent Nebraska in the Senate, and Senator Cornyn (R) will continue to represent Texas. So far the Senate is 54 (D), 38 (R), leaving only 8 races uncalled.

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Update 7:37pm(PST): Kirkpatrick (D) steals AZ-01 from the Republicans. Not to be mistaken with Cheeks Kilpatrick, the Democratic incumbent who will continue to represent Michigan 13. TX-31=Carter (R), Minnesota 2 will stick with Kline (R), and PA-7 will stick with Sestak (D).

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Update 7:25pm(PST): Halvorson (D) beats out Ozinga (R) in Illinois 11 and Maffei (D) does the same against Sweetland (R) in NY-25. Wilson (R) will still represent the 2nd district of South Carolina.

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Update 7:19pm(PST): NY-19 likes Hall (D) for 2 more years. Same with PA-13 and Schwartz (D), also NY-20 and Gillibrand (D). PA-5 goes for Thompson (R).

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Update 7:06pm(PST): Senate Races: Baucus (D) of Montana and Harkin (D) of Iowa are going back to work next year. GA-12 is sticking with Barrow (D), NC-9 is sticking with Myrick (R), NC-11 with Shuler (D), FL-12 with Putnam (R), and Missouri 5 is sticking with Cleaver (D).

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Update 7:01pm(PST): Elizabeth Dole (R) is giving her concession speech and talking about "honesty, compassion and love of community" ... PUKE. She attacked her opponent Kay Hagan (D) viciously and called Hagan godless despite her being a Christian. Long story short though: Hagan officially trounces Dole. Take that slimeball politics.

***

Update 6:56pm(PST): Grayson (D) steals FL-8 from Keller (R). Slaughter (D) slaughters challenger Crimmen (R) in NY-28. NY-12, NY-5 also stick with their Democratic Reps by large margins.

***

Update 6:50pm(PST): Sidenote: They're calling OH for Obama. Get the Prez updates here.

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Update 6:46pm(PST): Kansas and Mississippi will both stick with Republican Senator incumbents Roberts and Cochran respectively. Delaware 1 will stick with Castle (R), Wisconsin 7 with Obey (D), NY-7=Crowley (D). 52 (D), 36 (R), 12 uncalled for the Senate. 96 (D), 58 (R), 281 uncalled for the House.

Update 6:38pm: Arkansas 2 is sticking with Snyder (D), GA-11=Gingrey (R), NJ-6=Pallone (D), NY-2=Israel (D), TX-8=Brady (R). 52 (D), 35 (R), 13 uncalled for the Senate. 90 (D), 56 (R), 289 uncalled for the House.

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Update 6:27pm: Kansas will send Roberts (R) back to the Senate. Wisconsin 6 to stick with Petri (R), Illinois 16 with Manzullo (R), and Wisconsin 2 with Baldwin (D).

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Update 6:01pm: South Dakota sticks with Johnson (D) in the Senate, but Minority Leader McConnell (R) from Kentucky will also be heading back to the Senate. Shaheen (D) beats out incumbent Sununu (R) to represent New Hampshire. Total Senate accoring to CNN: 52 (D), 33 (R), 15 uncalled.

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Update 5:53pm: Hagan (D) beats incumbent Elizabeth Dole, a Republican who ran a ridiculously vicious campaign against Hagan. CNN is reporting the House at 35 Democrats, 18 Republicans, with 382 uncalled. In the Senate we've got 47 Democrat, 30 projected Republican, with 23 still undecided.

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Update 5:48pm(PST): Indiana 4 sticks with Buyer (R), FL-4 with Crenshaw (R), and Arkansas 4 with Ross (Democrat who ran unopposed). In the Senate Arkansas also stuck with with Pryor (a Democrat who also ran unopposed) and Oklahoma Inhofe (R).

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Update 5:40pm(PST): MA-4 sticks with Frank (D), West Virginia 3 sticks with Rahall (D), MA-6 sticks with Tierney (D), and Arkansas 1 with Berry (D).

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Update 5:25pm(PST): NBC News projects that Senator Elizabeth Dole (Republican) who ran a vicious negative campaign, will be unseated.

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Update 5:16(PST): FL-5 sends Browne-Waite (R) back to the House. CNN has the Senate races projected at 45 Dems, 29 Reps, 26 uncalled.

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Update 5:09pm(PST): CT-1 sticks with Dem Larson, and CT-3 with Dem DeLauro. 22 D, 12 R, 401 up for grabs. As for Senate races: Kerry (D) wins in MA, Alexander (R) in Tennessee, Lautenberg (D) New Jersey, Collins (R) in Maine, Durbin (D) in Illinois

***

Update 5:03pm(PST): MA 2, 3, 5, 9, and 10 all stick with their Dem incumbents. Mississippi 2 sticks with their Dem incumbent (Thompson) too. Currently 20 Democrats and 12 Republicans with 403 seats in the House still up for grabs.

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Update 4:52pm(PST): KY-6 sticks with Chandler (D), VA-1 sticks with Wittman (R), and KY-1 sticks with Whitfield (R).

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Update 4:43pm(PST): Donnelly, the Democratic incumbent from Indiana's 2nd district beats out Puckett (R). KY-3 goes to Yarmuth (Dem incumbent).

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Update 4:36pm(PST): VA-6 goes to Goodlatte (Republican incumbent), WV-1=Mollohan (Democratic incumbent), Indiana 06 goes to Pence (Republican incumbent), KY-04 goes to Davis (Republican incumbent)> The House so far is 6 (D), 6 (R) with 423 seats still up for grabs.

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Update 4:32pm(PST): Senate race: Rockefeller (D) beats out challenger Wolfe (R) in West VA. Projections right now have 41 Democrats, 27 Republicans, with 32 races still up in the air.

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Update 4:25pm(PST):For the House from CNN: KY-5=Rogers (Republican incumbent who ran unopposed), VA-4=Forbes (Republican incumbent), VA-7=Cantor (Republican incumbent), KY-4 Davis (Republican incumbent). So we've got 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans

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Update 4:07pm(PST): From the House: GA-4 goes to Johnson (D), GA-5 goes to Lewis (D), VA-3 goes to Scott (D), VA-9 goes to Boucher (D), VT-1 goes to Welsh (D). All are incumbents, all ran unopposed.

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Update 4:03pm(PST): Projections for Senate races from CNN have Mark Warner (D) beating out Gilmore (R) in Virginia, Graham (R, incumbent) beating out Conley (D) in South Carolina.

***

Update 3:40pm(PST): EXIT POLLS from Huffpo. As they say, please take all exit polls with a grain of salt. They are not an exact science to say the least:

More exit polls are coming in - again from a Democratic source - this time concerning some of the major Senate races. Percentage numbers were provided, just the margins of victory for respective candidates.

Again, read these with caution, even the source says they seem "optimistic."

-- New Hampshire: Sen. John Sununu down 18 points to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen

-- Minnesota: Sen. Norm Coleman down 12 to Democrat Al Franken

-- Kentucky: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is up two over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford

-- Georgia: Senator Saxby Chambliss up three over Democrat Jim Martin

-- New Mexico: Rep. Mark Udall is up 51 percent to 44 percent over Republican Bob Schaffer

-- North Carolina: Democrat Kay Hagen is up 52 percent to 43 percent over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole

-- Louisiana: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is "winning" her race against Republican challenger John Kennedy

***

Update 3:01pm(PST): First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Indiana has no Senate race this year. Kentucky has Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D) fighting for a Senate seat.

***

Update 2:07pm(PST): Some more ballot initiatives we'll be keeping our eye on, all of which affect immigration policies. From Josh Goodman at Governing.com (check out his website for more great analysis):

State: Arizona

Issue: Proposition 202, which modifies Arizona’s 2007 law that created some of the nation’s toughest penalties for employers who hire illegal immigrants.

Analysis: This one is complicated. The proposal is billed as “Stop Illegal Hiring” and, in some ways, it does make laws more stringent. For example, the measure increases penalties for identity theft and targets employers that pay workers in cash. But, Prop. 202 also reverses key portions of the 2007 employer sanction law, most notably the requirement that all employees be screened in the federal “eVerify” identity-checking system. It also ends the use of anonymous tips to rat out illegal hires. For those reasons, it’s mostly critics of the employer sanction law, such as business groups, that are pushing this initiative.

State: Missouri

Issue: Constitutional Amendment 1, which requires that all government meetings be conducted in English.

Analysis: Missouri is just the latest in a long list of states to consider making English the official language in one respect or another.

***

Update 12:35pm(PST): Michael Grunwald at Time Magazine has a great reminder for everyone sweating the 60+ "filibuster proof" majority in the Senate:

Don't focus on the Democratic push for 60 Senate seats, because the notion of a "filibuster-proof" majority is overblown. Even if the Democrats get 62 seats, they'll be short 60 votes on some issues, and if they settle for 58 seats, they'll get 60 votes on other issues.

Grunwald's article also points to a few indicators to judge just how bad tonight might be for the GOP. Click the link and give it a read, but here are some highlights:

The Blowout Seats: If conservative Republicans lose Senate seats in Georgia, Kentucky or Mississippi, or the House seats covering all of Idaho and Wyoming, it's going to be a brutal night for the GOP. It might be time to stop talking about a "center right" country and start thinking about renaming the Republican Party.

[...]

The Schadenfreude Seats: One of the nice things about wave elections is that they're the only way to end the careers of some politicians who deserve it. At the top of this year's class is convicted Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, along with his House partner in pork, Don Young. A just electoral god would also punish Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann, who called Obama anti-American and then lied about it; North Carolina Rep. Robin Hayes, who said "liberals hate real Americans" and then lied about it; and Senator Elizabeth Dole, who ran ads calling her Christian opponent "godless." Campaign hell should reserve a special place for Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss, who won his seat by comparing triple-amputee Max Cleland to Saddam Hussein, and who recently fired up his base by warning that blacks were voting in record numbers.

***

Update 11:54am(PST): Obama made a call to WCCO Radio's Don Shelby Show in hopes of helping out Al Franken (D) in his extremely close Senate race against Norm Coleman (R) in Minnesota. Here's what Barack Obama told listeners:

I will say that your candidate in Minnesota, Al Franken, is going to be an important part of a coalition that brings about change. He’s really, I think, in this to fight for working families. I’m looking forward to seeing him serve in the Senate.

And if people are looking for fundamental change over the next eight years, then I think an Obama-Biden ticket, Al Franken in the Senate, is going to be the best answer for working families all across the state.

***

Update 11:42am(PST): Some more ballot initiatives we'll be keeping our eye on, all of which affect GLBT rights. From Josh Goodman at Governing.com (check out his website for more great analysis):

State: Arizona

Issue: Proposition 102, a ban on gay marriage in the state Constitution

Analysis: Twenty-seven states have voted on gay marriage bans over the past decade and 26 of them have passed. The one that failed was in Arizona in 2006, where the amendment was worded in a way that would likely have prohibited civil unions and other recognition of same-sex relationships. It received 48 percent of the vote.

This year, the legislature placed a scaled-back version of the ban on the ballot. It only applies to gay marriage. The question is whether that distinction will push the proposal over the 50 percent mark.

State: Arkansas

Issue: A ban on unmarried cohabitating couples serving as foster parents or adopting children.

Analysis: Social conservatives are pushing this initiative as a way to prohibit gay couples from adopting children or serving as foster parents. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe and some social worker organizations are opposed. In a conservative state, the vote will test how far the public is willing to go in terms of restricting gay rights.

State: California

Issue: Proposition 8, a ban on gay marriage in the state Constitution

Analysis: Thanks to a ruling by the state Supreme Court earlier this year, California became the second state to allow gay marriage. Social conservatives then moved quickly, placing a measure on the ballot to reverse the decision by banning gay marriage in the Constitution. So, a vote this fall will determine the fate of perhaps the hottest-button social issue in the nation’s most populous state.

State: Florida

Issue: Amendment 2, a ban on gay marriage and same sex unions “treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof.”

Analysis: Florida’s ban on gay marriage would be very likely to pass, except that the Sunshine State requires 60% of the vote for constitutional amendments to win approval. That, combined with the broad wording of the amendment (compared to the gay marriage bans on the ballot in Arizona and California), makes this an interesting one to watch. Also of note: Some analysts think the gay marriage vote could affect turnout in the presidential race (although I’m not one of them).

***

Update 10:58am(PST): Some more ballot initiatives we'll be keeping our eye on, all of which affect reproductive rights. From Josh Goodman at Governing.com:

State: California

Issue: Proposition 4, which would require minors seeking abortions to notify a parent or guardian and then wait at least 48 hours before having the abortion.

Analysis: This is the third time in the last four years that California is voting on parental notification and abortion waiting periods, although this year’s version has some slight tweaks to it. Each of the previous two versions failed narrowly.

State: Colorado

Issue: Amendment 48, which defines life as beginning at conception and grants constitutional rights (life, liberty, etc.) from that point.

Analysis: This measure takes the novel tact of being about abortion without mentioning abortion. The idea here seems to be to avoid the messy details (should there be exemptions for rape, for the health of the mother, etc.?) that have bogged down abortion bans in other states such as South Dakota. However, the proposal has such a broad reach that some conservatives are balking at the strategy.

State: South Dakota

Issue: Initiated Measure 11, a ban on abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or if the health or life of the mother is at stake.

Analysis: Pro-life advocates placed a more restrictive abortion measure on the 2006 ballot in South Dakota, which only included an exception for the life of the mother. That proposal lost 56 percent to 44 percent, but supporters hope the changes will persuade voters to switch sides this time around. Other than California’s gay marriage vote, this will probably be the closely watched ballot measure in the country because of its potential to set up a challenge to Roe v. Wade.

***

Update 10am(PST): Just a quick brush up on Politics 101 for anyone that is feeling a lil' rusty. In the Senate we've got 37 Democratic seats, 2 Independent Seats (who both caucus with the Dems), and 26 Republican seats that are NOT up for election. That leaves 35 seats that are up for grabs (equaling ... that's right: 100 seats in the Senate). The reason for this is that Senators have six year terms, which are staggered so that approximately 1/3rd of the Senate is up for election every two years. Representatives in the House aren't so lucky, as every seat is up for grabs every two years, meaning that the total 435 seats in the House are up for election today.

As polls are still open and results aren't pouring in yet, I encourage you to take a look at the earlier post (below), which covers some of the Senate races, House races, and state ballot initiatives that we are excited about today. Please let us know which ones you're keeping an eye on in the comments, and be sure to bookmark this page and come back periodically to keep up with what's happening.

Also check out our coverage of the Presidential race, voting snafus around the country and conservatives' reactions.

***

Here it is kids. Election day. How bad a case of election day fever do you have?

Here at AlterNet we can't wait to see how this one plays out, and we obviously aren't the only ones. Across the nation people are coming out in record numbers to vote, ensuring that Election day 2008 will be one for the books. With so much to keep an eye on out there we have multiple articles that we will be updating throughout the day, bringing you breaking coverage of the Presidential race, conservatives' reactions, and hot news and juicy rumors[last one won't be live until later today]. If you want to keep up with Senate races, House races, and important state ballot measures though, you're in the right place. To find out whose going to be on Capitol Hill and which ballot measures get passed, bookmark this page and be sure to check-in throughout the day.

Before the information starts pouring in, we wanted to let you know what people are talking about. Below are some of the races and issues that have a lot of progressives really excited ... or worried. Can Franken beat Coleman? Will Dole and Bachmann's dirty tricks work, or blow up in their faces? Will the religious right get prop. 8 passed? Could California's prop. 5 pass, ushering in a more civilized drug policy? How will conservative economic policies fare in Massachusetts? These are just some of the many questions people are wondering about. It is important to mention though, while these items have caught our attention, it is a only a partial list. We encourage your input, whether you have a ballot measure we missed, a race that's important to you, or anything else you want to say feel free to let us know in the comments below.

Happy election day everyone, now let's get cracking.

David Sirota posted an excellent piece about bellwether races and initiatives to keep an eye on (click the link for his full article):

CALIFORNIA
- Proposition 8: Relegated to seemingly permanent minority status, Golden State conservatives are resorting to a social/cultural message with this anti-gay-marriage initiative. Its success or failure will either embolden or crush these kind of wedge tactics both in California and in similar  blue states where conservatives are looking for a foothold.

COLORADO

- The Udall-Schaffer Senate race: This election will tell us if an aggressively pro-environment Democrat can win against a movement conservative in a state once considered off-limits for pro-environment Democrats.

- Amendment 46: Sponsored by the infamous Ward Connerly, this disgusting initiative aims to stoke the old Angry White Man backlash against minorities and women with a measure to essentially ban affirmative action and equal opportunity programs. The latest Denver Post poll suggests this is going to be a close one - if progressives defeat it, they will show that even here in the heart of the Mountain West, we can defeat race/gender-based wedge politics.

- Amendment 47: This is the anti-union right-to-work measure, aimed at destroying Colorado's labor movement. This state has a long history of anti-union politics - if right-to-work is defeated, it will signal that unions are starting to figure out how to fight off the worst anti-union measures in some of the most virulently anti-union states.

[...]

MASSACHUSETTS

- Question 1: Massachusetts voters face a Grover Norquist-type ballot initiative to repeal its income tax. Though the Northeast has been dominated by Democrats in recent years, this initiative represents an attempt by conservatives to start moving their right-wing economic populism into blue-state strongholds. How this fares will suggest how similar initiatives and legislative bills fare in this Democratic region.

[...]

OREGON

- The Smith-Merkley Senate Race: As I wrote in a   newspaper column in October, the senate race between incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) and challenger Jeff Merkley (D) provides arguably the starkest economic contrast on key issues like trade and globalization - and in a state where populist Democrats are supposedly unable to run on such issues. Should Merkley win with his anti-NAFTA, anti-Wall-Street-bailout campaign, it will prove that even in a state like Oregon with a significant export economy, Democrats can compete and win with a populist economic message.

WYOMING

- The Trauner-Lummis House Race: In 2006, Democrat Gary Trauner came within a few hundred votes of winning Dick Cheney's old House seat in not only the most Republican state in the nation, but a state acutely affected by many of the most pressing energy, environmental and infrastructural challenges. If he wins his 2008 race against State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, it will indicate that progressives can compete on such previously difficult political and issue terrain.

Even though Congress has lower approval ratings than Bush, Republican congress members are definitely the worse off of the two parties, as this poll from Pollster.com shows:

CongPartiesJob.png

How much will peoples' current distaste for the GOP work in the Dems favor today? Here are Open Left's Chris Bowers' predictions for the Senate:

Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 7 seats

Republican Held : Democratic Pickups 7

State Type Democratic Republican D Cash Margin Polls
We're Gonna Win
Virginia Open Warner Gilmore 2713% D +26.5 2
New Mexico Open T. Udall Pearce 542% D +15.5 4
Alaska Incumbent Begich Stevens 63% D +15.0 2
Colorado Open M. Udall Schaffer 364% D +15.0 1
New Hamp. Freshman Shaheen Sununu 49% D +9.1 7
Oregon Incumbent Merkley Smith 51% D +6.0 4
North Carolina Freshman Hagan Dole 51% D +4.3 3
True Toss-ups
Minnesota Freshman Franken Coleman 70% R +0.8 5
Georgia Freshman Martin Chambliss 8% R +2.7* 3
Not This Time
Kentucky Incumbent Lunsford McConnell 22% R +5.8 4
Mississippi-B Special Musgrove Wicker 28% R +9.0 2

* = The Libertarian candidate in the Georgia Senate race averages 4.7% across the three polls. If no candidate reaches 50% on Tuesday, there will be a run-off on December 2nd. Right now, the polling indicates a run-off is the most likely outcome.

Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (12): Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Open, Risch) Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-A (Barrasso), Wyoming-B (Enzi)

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (12): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Lautenberg (New Jersey), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

For Chris Bowers predictions for the House races, click here.

Which ballot initiatives will pass, and which will fail? Whose headed to DC in January, and who needs to start looking for a job in the private center? We'll only know after the votes are tallied, so be sure to check in throughout the day to get the latest news about the Senate and House Races, as well as important ballot measures.

Oh yea, and if you haven't yet, be sure to VOTE!

AlterNet is a nonprofit organization and does not make political endorsements. The opinions expressed by its writers are their own.

 
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