Three 'Red State' Senate Races That Could Change America

If Barack Obama pulls off a widely-anticipated win on Tuesday, he'll take office with an enormous amount of political capital. As George W. Bush proclaimed in 2004, "elections matter." But while Obama will have a clear mandate for dismantling the policies of the Bush era, he'll also have to wrestle with a conservative movement that, while wounded, is far from dead.

Key to his ability to effect substantive change will be the composition of the Senate, where 60 votes are required to overcome filibusters on crucial pieces of legislation. If the Democrats hit that mark, it'll be a game-changer; the party's leadership would have no excuses for failing to enact a progressive agenda. That in itself would help the party's progressive base exercise real power for the first time in decades.

Democrats started this cycle with an advantage; 23 GOP seats are up for re-election versus 12 seats held by Dems. With George Bush's dismal approval ratings, the Democrats have long anticipated increasing their Senate majority -- now 51-49, including "independent Democrat" Joe Lieberman (CT) and Bernie Sanders (VT) -- by 5-6 seats. But with the financial meltdown weighing heavily on the Republican brand and a disciplined and impressive Obama organization on the ground, a 60-seat majority, while still a very long shot, is not beyond the realm of possibility.

In addition to several seats left open by Republican retirements -- and that of the recently-convicted Ted Stevens (AK) -- Democrats have real opportunities to pick up seats that seemed like stiff challenges a few short months ago, including those held by Norm Coleman (MN), Gordon Smith (OR) and John Sununu (NH).

But if the Obama campaign can fulfill its promise of turning out huge numbers of new voters -- young people, people of color, single women -- then it's possible that several seats that in a normal election would never be in play might also flip.

Three races in Southern "red" states are of particular interest: Jim Martin's run against Saxby Chambliss in Georgia; the battle between Mitch McConnell and Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky and Kay Hagan's challenge to Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.

Kentucky

Among the most closely-watched races this Tuesday will be that pitting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell against Bruce Lunsford, a former businessman and long-time player in Kentucky Democratic politics.Winning the seat that would be a sweet bit of revenge for the Democrats, after the GOP successfully targeted South Dakota Democrat Tom Daschle, then the party's leader, in 2004. Prior to that contest, Senate tradition dictated that the two major parties wouldn't challenge their opposition's leaders. When The Hill asked Charles Schumer (NY), leading the Democratic fight for the Senate, about targeting McConnell, he said, "The rules of etiquette were broken with Tom Daschle."

McConnell's pitch is that Lunsford, as a Senate newbie, wouldn't have the clout that McConnell, a 24-year veteran of the chamber as well as the GOP's leader, enjoys. "There are [even] plenty of Democrats who … understand this would be a horrible trade for the commonwealth, a massive step backward in clout and influence," McConnell told a crowd at a campaign stop this weekend. The Republican's argument got a last-minute boost when Bush's Department of Veterans' Affairs approved a $75 million project in Louisville on Friday -- a well-timed move for the campaign.

Lunsford, meanwhile, has hit McConnell hard on the economy -- a through-story for all three races. At a rally on Saturday, Lunsford said, "People want prosperity back…They want to know it's gonna be all right. They want some hope. They want to feel like their country has the potential to be what it's been in the past." Lunsford has criticized McConnell for his role in crafting the $700 billion Wall Street bailout passed by congress last month.