Republicans Face Huge Losses in the House and Senate Across the Country

When control of the House and Senate flipped narrowly to Democrats following the 2006 elections, many Republicans tried to keep a brave face. They banked on 2008 as a year of change -- which is exactly what it is shaping up to be, though not in the way the minority party had hoped. Rather than wresting away the speaker's gavel from Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House GOP leader John Boehner (Ohio) faces more losses in his ranks.

A stark imbalance in retiring incumbents -- a margin of 28 Republicans to six Democrats among a total of 435 House seats -- leaves Pelosi and her party with pickup opportunities in the newly vacated slots.

The retirement trend -- equally salient in the Senate, where all five exits afflict the GOP -- isn't the only dynamic benefiting Democrats. The unraveling of the Bush administration, as it limps to its final curtain through a recession, a financial meltdown and a sixth year of war in Iraq (and the eighth year in Afghanistan), is a drag on Republican candidates in many states and districts. As a result, the question is not whether Democrats will gain seats in either chamber, but how many they will gain in each. Donors and dollars

Based on financial reports through August 2008, Democrats head to Election Day boasting advantages in their war chests. In the House, the margin is $54 million to $14 million over the GOP. In the Senate, the margin is $34 million to $27 million over the GOP.

Compared with earlier election cycles -- in which overwhelming Republican resources forced Democrats to marshal money for a tight cluster of targeted races -- the dollar superiority this year affords Democrats the chance to compete in more districts. They can do what political strategists call "expand the playing field" -- challenging GOP candidates even in districts that ordinarily lean their way.

Democrats plan to purchase $53 million of advertising in 51 congressional districts, according to congressional analyst Stuart Rothenberg. This amounts to a two-fold expansion over 2006, when the public's strong anti-incumbent, anti-Republican sentiments netted Democrats 30 new seats, including some unanticipated victories.

Heavier voter turnout in presidential elections tends to yield a return of some marginal seats to the party traditionally dominant in that area. Still, Democrats' combination of resources and an expanded playing field are likely to lead to an overall gain of several seats.

Three other factors have a significant bearing on congressional races this year: momentum, context and changes in the electorate. None of these dynamics holds much consolation for Republicans. Expanding the field -- and the electorate

Since March, Democrats have won three special elections for Congress in districts that Republicans had represented for decades.

One was the northern Illinois seat of former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert. He resigned midterm only to see the seat he had held for 21 years go to Democrat Bill Foster, who took full advantage of an endorsement from home-state senator and presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.

The results of the other two special elections -- in Louisiana and Mississippi in May -- were early indicators that Obama exerts a strong pull on all types of Democrats, as well as on many independents and moderate Republicans. In both contests, GOP allies sought to boost their candidates by playing on racism in linking the Democratic candidates to Obama. Both attempts fell flat. The Democrats prevailed, pushing their party's total margin in the House to 38 votes, or a difference of 19 seats.

Throughout the primary season, Obama staff and volunteers have attempted to add thousands of new Democrats to the voter rolls through carefully structured registration drives. In the fast-growing swing state of Nevada, for instance, this effort has helped give Democrats their first major edge in overall registration in a generation.