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The Dems Are Headed for a Spanking and the Consultant Class Remains Clueless

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This post is by Jerome Armstrong and originally appeared at MyDD.

I don't see how anyone can feign skepticism any longer-- its called denial at this point. Nit-picking Gallup internals becomes quite the stretch when you have to start doing the same for Pew, AP/GfK, Rasmussen too, for pointing out the same truth. I will merely point out in summation what I've already posted as to the why:

1. The Democrats became the face (you could argue they embraced it), of the DC banker bailout culture of the privileged (those with access), while the average American has been downsized.

2. For those of you who have been at the forefront of the attacking the Tea Party enthusiasts, bloggers or otherwise, give yourself a big pat on the back for going after (usually in a obnoxious elitist manner) this years swing voters.

3. Tim Kaine, with the status-quo Moving America Forward, delivered a faulty to the core messaging. Saying that the status-quo is just fine will go down as an out-of-touch, and helping to exacerbate the losses. He really should be fired, and so should the pollsters and consultants who advocated for this messaging disaster.

Here's your chart, and I'll deliver a bit more, to substantiate the above, below the chart.

For the above 1-3, here are the most relevant items:

1. The bailout problem for Democrats:

Having voted for TARP, having bailed out Wall St 100 cents to the dollar for their bad investments, and having looked the other way while the banker class subsequently awarded themselves obscene bonuses, that populist foundation (which was certainly prepped for by Democrats during the 2006 and 2008 campaigns) crumbled.

Its tough to see how Democrats regain footing on this populist issue, because even thought they have improved, its on the margins, and pales with the bigger mistake. Basically, Democrats are left waiting for Republicans to let down the populist anger that is bringing them into power.

2. The Idiocy of Attacking the Tea Party enthusiasts for 2010 implications:

And the kicker from the Gallup poll on the Tea Party: Many of the Independents or soft Democrats that Democratic candidates most need to win, identify themselves with the Tea Party. Yes, 79% of them identifying with the Tea Party likewise identified with the Republican Party.

The more relevant item from that Gallup poll of Tea Party supporters is the other 21 percent, especially more telling for the 2010 landscape. They are moderate and conservative Democrats, and pure Independents. Read the poll. Yes, they overlap widely with Republicans, but also overlap with the swing voters that decide elections.

3. Some heads need to roll:

The weakest messages assert we should “go forward, not back.”  Voters are not moved by Democratic messages that say ‘go forward, not back,’ mention President Bush, compare then and now, or even that hint the economy is “showing signs of progress.”  No matter how dramatically these messages set out the record of Republican obstructionism, their work for the wealthiest and Goldman Sachs, the millions of jobs lost and Democrats’ support for jobs, small business and new industries – these messages falter before the Republican attack.

The messages get lower scores and lose voters.  After hearing this battle of Republican and Democratic messages, 8 percent shift their vote to support the Republican, while only 5 percent move to the Democrats.  We lose ground.  These messages are helping the Republicans.

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