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Republicans bullish, Democrats hope as polls loom
Four weeks from congressional elections that threaten to roadblock his presidency, Barack Obama is intensifying his campaign blitz, as Democrats dare to dream they may limit a Republican wave.
But with frustration over the sluggish recovery boiling in the heartland, Republicans remain bullish as polls suggest they will snatch the House of Representatives and slice deep into Democratic control of the Senate.
Obama, seeking to reignite the diverse coalition that put him in the White House, will rally Democrats in Maryland, Illinois, New Jersey and Philadelphia in coming days as the White House talks up chances of a party rebound.
A string of other rallies and appearances are also in the works, following a campaign swing last week that saw Obama mass 26,500 young voters at a rally in midwestern swing state Wisconsin.
His spokesman Robert Gibbs insisted Monday that Obama's voters, bristling from a presidential order to "buck up," are finally realizing the stakes, as Republicans threaten gains that could stall the president's reform agenda.
"A broader swathe of the electorate is now focusing... on the upcoming elections," Gibbs said, arguing that a vaunted "enthusiasm gap" between Republican and Democratic voters was closing.
"I think we'll control both (the House and Senate) after election day."
Democrats base their case on an apparent narrowing of the gap with Republicans in generic polls, bumper fundraising, which netted 16 million dollars in September, and Obama's rousing entry into the race last week.
Furthermore, some safe Democratic seats that wobbled in recent weeks now appear more stable, in California, Washington state, Illinois and Delaware.
In August, an eye-popping Gallup generic nationwide poll gave Republicans a 10 point lead over Democrats -- but the survey is now tied, with other similar polls showing Republicans up by just a few points.
Many analysts however believe that the narrative of an election focusing on disappointment with Obama's economic policies and high jobless numbers may already be set, ahead of polling day on November 2.
Republicans, riding a wave of anti-Washington feeling stoked up by the ultra conservative Tea Party movement, predict big gains in polls in which they need a capture 39 seats to win the House and 10 seats to take the Senate.
"A tidal wave of grassroots energy -- which began with Americans' opposition to the Democrats' 787-billion-dollar stimulus debacle... will finally come to a head on November 2," said Rob Jessmer, National Republican Senatorial Committee director, in a fundraising email Monday.
A Republican triumph would represent a stunning reverse for Obama, who swept to power on a euphoric tide of hope.
But despite passing historic legislation that makes his case that he has forged the change he promised, Obama has failed to trigger robust economic and jobs growth, and may pay a political price.
The man who once promised to "change the world" is more often these days seen lamenting there is "no silver bullet" to reverse America's economic woes after the deepest crisis in decades.
Republican control of the House or both chambers would allow Obama's foes to halt his ambitious reform agenda and launch a wave of investigations that could tie up the White House in legal maneuvers.
Twice in recent weeks, Obama has come face-to-face with voters who complained he has fallen short of the soaring hopes he raised two years ago.
At a CNBC "town-hall" meeting, two weeks ago, a voter told Obama that she was "exhausted" by defending "a man who was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class."
Last week in Iowa, a woman told Obama her son had been inspired by his crusade for change, but was losing hope, as he could not find permanent work.
Dan Shea, professor of politics at Allegheny College, Pennsylvania, said Obama may be falling foul of huge expectations raised by his campaign, and unrealistic hopes of some of his supporters.
"There is nothing he can say, because a president on his own, cannot just turn around an economy," he said, noting America's tradition of fiercely partisan politics and the adversarial governing system of checks and balances between the White House and Congress.
A mere two questions in an electorate numbering tens of millions is hardly representative, but they underscore a key problem hampering the congressional hopes of Obama and those of his party.
With unemployment at 9.6 percent, few Americans seem to feel the economic gains his administration talks up, and big new laws on healthcare and finance reform are yet to have a significant impact.
