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Nate Silver weighs in on the government shutdown

Ending a temporary break from writing, Nate Silver has taken to the digital pages of ESPN's Grantland to offer his assessment of the "six big takeaways from the government shutdown." As anyone familiar with Silver's work might expect, his estimation of the crisis differs considerably from that of most pundits.

For one thing, Silver argues that the shutdown is likely not as big of a deal as many believe. While he grants that a debt-ceiling breach or a long-term shutdown would likely have significant effects on the 2014 election, Silver says a short-term shutdown "might turn out to have a relatively minor impact by November 2014."

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