Alaska Poised to Elect Democrat Mark Begich to Senate

By Scott Rafferty, AlterNet. Posted November 18, 2008.

So far, it is not look like either side has grounds for a state "election contest," another judicial proceeding that which requires the loser to show that "malconduct," such as intimidation or fraud, changed the outcome. The Senate has apparently been spared an election contest or the other options of exclusion or expulsion (as laid out in my article.) The state courts will also not have to deal with the constitutional dispute over the governor's power to fill a vacancy, since Begich will likely be in for six years.

In his last two Senate elections, Stevens won by 77 percent and 78 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota

In Minnesota, the GOP noise machine is heating up. The road may be longer, but the result should be pretty bulletproof. The 5 percent audit of unofficial Election Day has found at net of at least 9 votes for Franken, which implies a recount will unearth 171 more net votes for Franken. I think Franken will go into the lead, since (1) Florida-like scrutiny of voter-intent favors low-income, low-education voters, and (2) precinct-counter jams, which can miscount a ballot, occur more frequently in urban jurisdictions. So far, it is a pretty solid performance for ES&S's Model 100 scanner, which has the great virtue of allowing the voter to review and cast his/her own PAPER ballot.

Rejected absentees will become critical. Franken has not been able to inspect the ballots to determine who was rejected for signature mismatches and who for alleged non-registration. Including a significant portion of the rejects from Hennepin County alone would probably push Franken into the lead. Before he appointed the canvassing board, Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (the board's only Democrat) said the board will not consider these, which means a count challenge. It now appears the court will hear arguments. The board includes 2 Republican Supreme Court judges (and two lower court judges). In the one case where the Supreme Court reviewed the state board, it reversed in favor of counting ballots. It seems hard to believe that at some stage, the ballots will not be subject to inspection and the voters able to affirm their signatures.

In Minnesota, the recount begins tomorrow at 107 sites. This is an administrative action, subject to Review Board supervision and certification, followed by state Supreme Court review. However, Minnesota law also allows an "election contest," which is a judicial action that could lead to judicially appointed masters supervising yet another count of the paper ballots.

See more stories tagged with: mark begich, 2008 alaska senate race, ted stavens

Scott Rafferty is a Washington-based lawyer who has specialized in election law for many political campaigns.

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