NBC/WSJ poll: Romney leads GOP but public sticks with Obama
In more confirmation of the unusual nature of Obama's support the new NBC/WSJ poll finds that the public is restive about the economy, but
Mr. Obama's generally buoyant political standing reflects his continued personal appeal and the historic nature of the first African-American presidency. His high standing among black and Hispanic voters shatters four decades of data that until now has closely correlated approval of the president with views about whether the country is on the right track, Mr. McInturff said.
Among all poll respondents, 45% said they would probably vote to re-elect Mr. Obama, while 40% said they would choose a Republican. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead widened. Mr. Obama leads Mr. Romney 49% to 43%; he topped Mr. Pawlenty 50% to 37%.
It's for the above observation that we keep reminding folks that what "everyone knows" may not necessarily be so.
Now, one has to be very careful about saying "this year it'll be different". The truth is, year after year, whatever the topic, it's usually not. But this is a unique kind of situation, where the previous administration is still blamed more than this one.
Concerted Republican attacks on Mr. Obama have so far failed to fundamentally change public opinion about him. The president still leads GOP White House contenders including Mr. Romney, and 62% said the nation's economic malaise is one the president inherited, not one he caused.
"There's nothing to suggest the public's really turned on him," Mr. Hart said.
The poll does note that amongst some subsets Romney's message resonates. Suberban voters, and white voters, in particular prefer Romney.
As for being the front runner,
Of those who said they were likely to vote in the Republican primaries next year, 30% said they back Mr. Romney, up from 21% last month, when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and businessman Donald Trump were still possible contenders.
Interestingly, the GOP voters are not so enamored of their choices.
But with about eight months until the first GOP nominating contests, less than half of Republican primary voters — 45 percent — say they are satisfied with their current crop of presidential candidates, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
That's substantially lower than the 73 percent of Republicans who were satisfied in the summer of 2007 (when the GOP candidates included John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee), as well as the 68 percent who were satisfied in early 1996 (when Bob Dole won the GOP nomination).
Here's how they see it in Texas:
NBC News and the Wall Street Journal released a new poll on Wednesday, and it put Gov. Rick Perry at fourth place among Republican primary voters when asked their choice for the GOP nominee. It went like this: Romney, 30 percent; Palin, 14 percent; Cain, 12 percent; Perry, 8 percent.
Polls have little use at this point other than to test name ID. But it is interesting that Perry, who has not said whether he’s running, finished higher than announced candidates Pawlenty, Gingrich and Bachmann, among others.
Yeah, Pawlenty and Huntsman are just catching fire. Burning up the polls. Scorching the opposition. [Hey, bring in that magnifying glass so I can find their poll numbers.]
So, we're a long ways away, the country is unhappy aboiut the economy and Obama has plenty of work to do. But correlating the results with any specific number, such as unemployment, or wrong track, is proving to be more difficult than normal with this President. We can speculate why: historic President, unlikeable GOP candidates, blame on Bush... oh, and gas prices dropping doesn't hurt.
Are there storm clouds ahead? You betcha. Still, for now, the numbers are what they are.
Full poll results (.pdf) here.