New GOP Congress to be Batsh*t Insane
The scariest story of the day is this one in which a political scientist runs the numbers and determines that the new congress is going to be batshit insane. (And it's based on the conservatism of the GOP before the Tea Party takeover!)
The 112th House is likely to be a good deal more conservative than the Newt Gingrich-led House of 1995-97. In the Gingrich House, moderate Republicans actually outnumbered very conservative Republicans by a wide margin. In the 112th House, however, very conservative Republicans will greatly outnumber moderate Republicans. Whereas moderate Republicans held the balance of power in the Gingrich House, they will have almost no influence in the 112th House. As a result, pressure on the House leadership to pursue a hard-line conservative agenda is likely to be much stronger in the new House than it was in the Gingrich House and opportunities to reach bipartisan agreements with the president are likely to be much more limited if not nonexistent.
Moderate Republicans have been disappearing for some time and are now a truly endangered species. According to my estimate, there will be only three in the new House. Meanwhile, moderate Democrats, who held the balance of power in the old House, will see their numbers drastically reduced in the new House. The most likely result will be two years of continuous confrontations in almost every major policy area between President Obama and a Senate in which the balance of power is still held by moderate Democrats as well as a House dominated by conservative Republicans to a greater extent than at any time in the past 60 years.
I'm sure that gridlock will be blamed on liberals for putting up even the tiniest fuss before agreeing to pass the Tea Party agenda and the president will be hailed as a hero for ignoring them.
I sure hope their policies are good. What do you suppose the probability of that is?