Having reviewed the entirety of races for the House of Representatives in what is supposed to be a GOP “wave” election, I find that as of now, this wave is a mile wide, but barely an inch deep.

Going district by district, you could make the case that Republicans on a good night could net 70 seats by narrowly winning many swing districts where the polling is close and the GOP candidate seems to be gaining. By the same token, though, there is a reasonable district-by-district argument for how Democrats could keep the majority with many narrow wins, especially if their GOTV operation can close some of the projected partisan turnout gap.

While there is no doubt the GOP will make big gains on election night, the plausible range of pickups is incredibly wide. Depending on if the national mood breaks one way or another, dozens of seats could be won or lost by very narrow margins.

With that in mind, here are 98 hotly contested races that Firedoglake will be watching closely over the next 10 days. . . and in the case of a few of them, maybe even longer than that.

  1. AL-02: Bobby Bright (D) has been bringing home the bacon to his district, but will it be enough to keep him ahead of Martha Roby (R)? He’s taking local heat for accepting ads from the Chamber of Commerce when the White House is attacking them for accepting foreign money. Roby outraised Bright for the 3Q, but Bright has more cash on hand ($578,694 to $300,271). DCCC polling have him with a huge 12 point lead, one of the largest for any “endangered” Democrats they have released.
  2. AR-01: (Open) Marion Berry’s seat. Republican Rick Crawsford is ahead by 12 according to the Hill. This race is a likely lose.
  3. AR-02: (Open) Vic Snyder’s old seat. Another red district open seat almost assure to go to Republicans. GOP Tim Griffith lead by 12 according to Talk Business.
  4. AR-03: New Talk Business Research and Hendrix College poll shows Mike Ross (D)  in good shape going into the election, leading Beth Anne Rankin (R) 52-34.  Like Mike Beebe, the poll indicates Ross is a “rare Democrat” who is not losing Independents in Arkansas.
  5. AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) was triaged by the DCCC two weeks ago, but Stu Rothenberg says they’re back in again. Two weeks ago The Hill poll found Kirkpatrick losing 39-46.
  6. AZ-03: Daily Kos/PPP has Jon Hubbard (D) ahead of Ben Quayle (R) 46-44.  It would be a thing of beauty for Quayle to get whipped in an R+9 district in an election year with a huge GOP wave.
  7. AZ-05: Harry Mitchell (D) is trailing Dave Schweikert (R) by three points according to a recent The Hill poll. Mitchell does hold a huge fund raising advantage at this point though.
  8. AZ-07: Two recent polls show Raul Grijalva (D) in trouble.  Summit Consulting Group showed McClurg (R) leading Grijalva 39-37 on Oct. 5-6, and Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies found Grijalva leading by 2 points on Sept. 29.  Sarah Palin endorsed McClurg on Monday.  The DCCC has entered the race, spending $63,000 for the cash poor Grijalva. Sen. John McCain and Jon Kyl are up with an ad trying to whip up anger over Grijalva supporting the boycott of his own state. Anger over that issue could make the closeness of this race an outlier.
  9. AZ-08: Gabby Giffords (D), Jesse Kelly (R).  Giffords has an enormous cash advantage, with $1,344,412 cash on hand, to Kelly’s $113,878.
  10. CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D), David Harmer (R).  McNerney has $1.5 million to Harmer’s $489,278. SurveyUSA poll from last week found Harmer with a six point lead.
  11. CA-18: Dennis Cardoza (D), Mike Berryhill (R).  Cardoza $508,064 to Berryhill’s $5,920, but Berryhill has been a self-funder. SurveyUSA had Cardoza 50-44 on October 5-6.
  12. CA-20: GOP Challenger Andy Vidak has more cash on hand than Jim Costa (D), $206,775 to $164,493. A SurveyUSA poll from over a month ago had Costa 48 to Vidak’s 46 in this district hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. The DCCC started spending in Costa’s district this week.
  13. CA-44: Dem Bill Hedrick come very close to defeating incumbent Republican Ken Calvert and is trying again, although this year the climate is much less favorable for Hedrick.
  14. CA-47: Loretta Sanchez’s (D) untoward comments on Spanish radio has left an opening for Van Tran.  Republican pollsters McHenry & Associates recently showed Sanchez 45 – Tran 43.
  15. CO-03: John Salazar (D), Scott Tipton (R).  An indication of what a mess the independent expenditure extravaganza is for the GOP: Americans United for Life went up on the air with an ad attacking his brother, Ken Salazar.
  16. CO-o4: Betsey Markey (D) has only $307,781 on hand to Cory Gardner’s (R) $1,127,739.  The DCCC triaged her. Two weeks ago Markey was slightly behind 41-44 according to a poll from The Hill. Too bad Gardner was up on the air attacking her for a vote made by Ed Markey.  #amateurhour
  17. CO-07: Ed Perlmutter (D), Ryan Frazier (R).  Magellan (R): 40 Frasier-39 Perlmutter
  18. CT-04: Jim Himes (D), Dan Debicella (R).  Himes only has $669,731 on hand to Debicella’s $447,488.  Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report: Himes 49 – Debicella 47
  19. CT-05: Chris Murphy (D), Sam Caliguri (R).  Merriman River Group/CT Capitol Report: Caligiuri 50 – Murphy 44, 10/3-5
  20. FL-02: Allen Boyd (D), Steve Southerland (R). On Tuesday, Sunshine State News/VSS showed Southerland +12.
  21. FL-08: Alan Grayson (D), Dan Webster (R).  Grayson raised more money than any Democrat in 3Q, and now enjoys a $1,209,617 advantage to Webster. It is very rare for an incumbent with such a massive fund raising advantage to lose. If he can get it within 2 points, Grayson runs a crack turnout operation. A Sunshine State News poll had it Grayson 36 – Webster 43.
  22. FL-22: Ron Klein (D) $270,498 to Allen West (R) $1,629,394. Wilson Research Strategies (R) had West 48 – Klein 42 on 9/20-22, and Sunshine State News has West over Klein by 47-43 on 10/19. West is so down right crazy though it is hard to imagine undecideds don’t break for Klein on election day.
  23. FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (D), Sandy Adams (R). Hamilton Campaigns (D): Kosmas 45 – Adams 43 9/22-23. A NRCC poll found Adams with a 12 point lead. The DCCC has not been spending for Kosmas.
  24. GA-02: Sanford Bishop (D), Mike Keown (R) Lester & Associates (D): Bishop 50 – Keown 40 10/7-10
  25. GA-08: Jim Marshall (D), Austin Scott (R): Grove Insight (D): Marshall 48-Scott 36 9/13-15
  26. HI-01: Charles Djou (R), Colleen Hanabusa (D) The Hill/Penn Schoen Berland: Djou 45 – Hanabusa 41 10/2-7. Traditionally  it has been very hard to poll the Japanese community of Hawaii which is likely to support Hanabusa. For example Hanabusa significantly outperformed the polls in the special election.
  27. IA-01: Leonard Boswell (D), Brad Zaun. An internals Boswell poll has him winning 47-38 and an internal DCCC poll has him winning 49-41
  28. IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) (Rothenberg named Loebseck one of five Dems who could be surprised). It should be noted Iowa has suffered relatively little in this economic downturn and has unemployment of only 6.6%, which should help Democrats.
  29. ID-01: Walt Minnick (D), Paul Labrador (R). This is a seat Democrats should have lost but Minnick will likely be saved by the simple fact that Labrador is simply truly horrible nominee.
  30. IL-08: Melissa Bean (D), Joe Walsh (R). $924,678 to $7,130: America/QuincyNews.org: Bean 41 – Walsh 41 9/28
  31. IL-10: (Open) This is one of Democrats best picks. In Republican Mark Kirk’s old district Democrat Dan Seals is up by 12 according to The Hill.IL-11: Debbie Halvorson, Adam Kinsinger. The Hill/ANGA: Kinzinger 49 – Halvorson 31 9/28-30. Even her internal polls show her trailing by four.
  32. IL-14: Bill Foster (D), Randy Hultgren (R): The Tarrance Group (R): Hultgren 44 – Foster 38. The Hill/ANGA: Hultgren 43 – Foster 42.
  33. IL-17: Phil Hare (D), Robert Schilling (R). Public Opinion Strategies (R): Hare 38 – Schilling 37 9/26-27. The Hill/ANGA: Schilling 45 – Haring 38. In comparison to Iowa, Illinois has been hit bad and saw unemployment jump up dramatically to 9.9%.
  34. IN-02: Joe Donnelly(D), Jackie Walorski (R) EPIC-MRA: Donnelly 48 – Walorksi 39 10/3. Donnelly’s powerful GOTV operation, aided by the UAW, will be an indication of how much early field organizing pays off for the Democrats.
  35. IN-08: (Open) Republican Larry Bucshon is favored to take Brad Ellsworth’s old seat.
  36. IN-09: Baron Hill (D), Todd Young (R). The DCCC has dropped big money in defense of Hill, who is fighting to keep his seat.
  37. KS-3: (Open) Democrat Dennis Moore’s wife Stephene Moore is running to replace him against Kevin Yoder (R). Yoder is viewed as the favorite.
  38. LA-2: Joseph Cao (R), Cedric Richmond (D). Cao won in this extremely blue seat in 2008 because he was running increased the clearly crooked William Jefferson.  Democrats expect to take this blue seat back now that they have a normal candidate.
  39. LA-3: (Open) GOP Jeff Landry narrowly favored for Melancon’s old seat.
  40. MA-04: Barney Frank (D).  Polling has put him down, but it will cost the GOP a lot of money for a seat they can’t keep.  Probably won’t be a priority. Frank has just injected $200,000 of his own money into the race.
  41. MA-10: (Open) This is a very close race between Republican Jeffrey Perry and Democrat William Keating. WGBH poll has Keating 46 – Perry 43.
  42. MD-01: Frank Kratovil (D), Andy Harris (R). In this deep read district Kratovil should be trailing but double digits in this environment but he has been doing remarkably well. Polling has him within the margin of error and the DCCC is still spending heavily on the race. The Hill/ANGA had it Harris 43 – Kratovil 40.
  43. MI-1: (Open) The race to replace Dem Bart Stupak is very close.  The Hill found Gary McDowell (D) 39 – Dan Benishek (R) 42
  44. MI-07: Mark Schauer (D), Tim Walberg (R) $1,313,384 to $451,085. The Hill/ANGA had the race tied and a new Detroit Free Press poll has Schauer up by six. With a massive fund raising advantage and tied in the polls Schauer is in better shape than most endangered freshman right now.
  45. MI-09: Gary Peters (D), Andrew Rackowski (R). In September Rossman Group/Team Telcom: Raczkowski 45 – Peters 41 but Detroit Free Press has it Peter 48 – Raczkowski 43.
  46. MI-15: It was hard to believe John Dingall (D) was in trouble when a poll in early October showed him trailing Rob Steele (R) by 4 points.  A poll released yesterday by Free Press showed him leading Steele by 17 points, but Dingell isn’t taking any chances: Bill Clinton comes to Ann Arbor on Sunday to campaign for him.

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