The Path to Victory on the Public Option

By Chris Bowers
Posted on July 6, 2009, Printed on December 15, 2009
http://www.alternet.org/bloggers//141122/

Currently, as the awesome Senate targeting chart showed yesterday, we are at 38 votes for the public option. (Huge hat-tip to HCAN and DFA on the chart). As such, we need at least 12 more to pass it thorough reconciliation.

That sounds like a daunting task, but a closer look at the Senate shows that it is definitely winnable. Here are the key targets, ranked in order of perceived likelihood for supporting a public option during reconciliation. Progressive Punch lifetime scores (in parenthesis) on crucial votes were used as the main, but not only, determining factor in these rankings:

The low handing fruit (7)
Al Franken, MN
Would Al Franken's first major act as a Senator be to oppose a public option, and take a right-wing position relative to the rest of the caucus on the most prominent issue of the day. Really? Really really? I'm certain we can win over Franken.

Amy Klobuchar, MN (82.30)
Klobuchar has the second highest progressive punch score of the remaining undecideds. She also signed the HCAN petition in support of a public option. Also, she hasn't really said much either way on the public option so far. I would be very surprised if we couldn't win her over.

Ron Wyden, OR (85.92)
As hubbird reported in the comments, Wyden probably is already in support of the public plan, but he is also interested in pushing his health care proposal hard. Wyden is also the most progressive of the undecided votes.

John Kerry, MA (79.67); Tim Johnson, SD (74.12); Mark Warner, VA (79.47); Herb Kohl, WI (79.19)
All four have not too terrible voting records, and also signed the HCAN pledge on a public option. We should be able to move them all.

***

Those seven would bring us to 45 Senate supporters of the public option, only five away from passage. A look at where we can get the remaining votes can be found in the extended entry. As you will see, this is a very winnable fight.

The path to victory (7)
Mark Begich, AK (66.67); Jon Tester, MT (71.60)
These three don't vote particularly well (although Warner isn't too bad), but they have all received a lot of online support. As such, we should be in a good position to persuade them.

Mark Pryor, AR (69.59)
His statements on the public option are far more encouraging than Blanche Lincoln's. Also, he is not facing re-election until 2014. I think we can persuade him.

Diane Feinstein, CA (79.03)
Feinstein's voting record falls into the "not too shitty" category. However, she has cast doubt on health care reform in general, and said that the pressure she has felt from reformers as a result of such doubts doesn't move her "one whit." We should be able to win her over. Really, given that she is not as conservative as most other Senators in this category, we have to win her over. Feinstein is one of the two most important votes, along with Max Baucus.

Michael Bennet, CO (66.67)
Bennet is a big disappointment but, ala Specter, a primary challenger should do the trick on the public option.

Bill Nelson, FL (79.67)
Nelson is somewhere between Feinstein and the Johnson-Warner-Kohl-Kerry group. He doesn't vote too terribly. He hasn't signed the HCAN petition. In fact, he has been pretty quiet during this debate. Should be winnable, but hard to read.

Max Baucus, MT (64.35)
As chair of the finance committee, Max Baucus is the most important vote on this list. While he has said that he will fight for a public option, currently the bill in his committee does not have one. If, however, Baucus comes out in support of a public option, then it is virtually guaranteed that a public option will reach the floor of the Senate. At that point, the only thing separating a public option from becoming law will be the willingness of the Obama administration and the Democratic congressional leadership to use reconciliation to pass it.

***

Win these seven votes, and the battle is won. There are also more difficult, fallback options:

The more difficult votes (9)
Evan Bayh, IN (74.06)
In addition to being the leader of the newly formed conservodems, Bayh actually voted against the budget that included the health care funding.

Robert Byrd, WV (74.65)
Not only is Byrd ill, but he didn't even want health care to go through reconciliation. Hard to imagine Byrd rising from his hospital bed to pass a public option through with 50 votes plus Biden.

Tom Carper, DE (70.17)
Carper is a conservodem lieutenant, and right now only appears to favors the trigger.

Kent Conrad, ND (75.21)
Conrad has become champion of the lame, ineffective "co-op" idea. He is also champion of the idea that a public option can't be passed through reconciliation. As such, he will be a very difficult, but also extremely important, vote to get. If Conrad sides with a public option, then the fight is all but won. Fortunately, Conrad has signaled that he is open to at least some aspects of the public option.

Mary Landrieu, LA (67.58)
Going a step further than Carper, Landrieu only appears to be considering a trigger. She did once sign a statement in favor of a public option, however.

Blanche Lincoln, AR (68.94)
I just don't trust Lincoln. At all. Given how frequently she has caved to conservative pressure, it is difficult to imagine her voting for a public option in reconciliation.

Ben Nelson, NE (43.58)
Second-worst voting Democrat, pockets lined with health insurance money, and, like Evan Bayh, voted against the budget. Further, at one time he was completely opposed to the public option. He actually votes against the progressive position more often than not on crucial votes.

Olympia Snowe, ME (27.16)
Right now, Snowe only appears to favor the trigger. Given that she seems to think that the problem with a public option is that is would offer lower cost health care insurance, I'm not optimistic.

Johnny Isakson, GA (1.56)
Isakson has surprisingly made some positive statements in favor of a public option. However, it is hard to believe, given that Isakson is the 4th most conservative Senator. Given that he is on the Senate HELP committee, we will find out soon, when the Kennedy bill with a public option is voted on in committee.

The Dregs (2)
Susan Collins, ME (24.20); Joe Lieberman, CT (68.44)
This space intentionally left blank on account of Lieberman.

***

That is the basic run of play as I see it. This really is winnable, especially if the Progressive Block forces the White House and the Democratic congressional leadership to start really twisting arms. Also, we are also going to need keep an eye on some of the more conservative and / or newly supportive Senators:

Key votes to hand onto (7)
Mark Udall, CO
Claire McCaskill, MO
Byron Dorgan, ND
Kay Hagan, NC
Arlen Specter, PA
Jim Webb, VA
Maria Cantwell, WA

Those seven will need as much pressure as anyone else.

So, let me know what you think. I want to really nail down the targeting plan over the holiday weekend.

Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.

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