Will the Economic Meltdown Push Fixing a Broken Immigration System to the Back Burner?

On the campaign trail last year, Barack Obama promised to make comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) "a top priority in my first year as president."

Stressing the importance of "finally bring[ing] undocumented immigrants out of the shadows," Obama laid out the basic framework of  the deal that died twice in Congress in recent years: "they should have to pay a fine, and learn English, and go to the back of the line," he said. "That's how we'll put them on a pathway to citizenship. That's how we'll finally fix our broken immigration system and avoid creating a servant class in our midst." 

But in his recent address to Congress, immigration was nowhere to be found in the 6,134-word speech. That left some wondering if the new administration had decided to put immigration reform on the back burner, especially in light of the tanking economy. In a recent interview with a Spanish-language radio station, Obama said that because of the economic meltdown, the environment for passing a comprehensive reform bill in this Congress would be even more difficult than in past years. But he also said he was "very committed" to making it happen. 

The basic outline of CIR is a grand bargain between proponents of stronger enforcement efforts and immigrants' rights advocates. It would beef up border security, increase workplace enforcement, give employers the ability to check the immigration status of potential hires and create a path to legalization that would allow undocumented immigrants to "get in the back of the line" for a green card if they pay fines, learn English if they aren't already proficient and prove that they've paid their taxes in full.

As an approach that tries to split the difference between ideological camps, it is imperfect; I've called it the "least bad solution" that has a chance of getting passed.

Immigration reformers are hopeful that it will get done. Frank Sharry, director of America's Voice, a leading reform group, told me, "it's our guess that the legislative debate will commence in the fall and that the president will lay relatively low on the issue until then." Sharry said that the reason he's hopeful is that "there's a growing recognition among policy makers that the election this past November was a game-changer.  Latino and immigrant voters turned out in record numbers, they helped turn at least four red states blue, and immigration emerged as a defining issue for the fastest-growing group of new voters in the nation." 

Doug Rivlin of the National Immigration Forum agreed. "The prospects for reform are very good if advocates continue to build power and make it happen," he told me.  "The Obama administration can read election results."

Rivlin predicted "strident but weaker Republican opposition to legal immigration, legalization, and commonsense reform led by Reps. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, and Brian Bilbray, R-Calif., in the House and Sens. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., David Vitter, R-La., and other Southern Republicans in the Senate." But, he added, "if the legalization, due-process protections, worker rights and family components of a bill are strong enough, workable enough and generous enough, there will be wide Democratic support and enough Republican support to get a bill to the president." 

Senate Majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., told the Detroit Free Press, "there's been an agreement between Obama and [Arizona Republican Sen. John] McCain to move forward on that. ... We'll do that." When asked if he had the votes to pass some form of CIR, he said: "We've got McCain, and we've got a few others. I don't expect much of a fight at all." Reid promised to work with the administration on the timing, but most of the analysts I interviewed expect a push for comprehensive reform this fall.