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Environment

How New Energy Order Will Dramatically Change our Daily Lives

By Michael T. Klare, Tomdispatch.com. Posted April 16, 2008.


Get ready for a new world order in which energy will govern what we eat, where we live, and if and when we travel.
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"Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy" by Michael Klare (Metropolitan Books, 2008).
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It's strange that the business and geopolitics of energy takes up so little space on American front pages -- or that we could conduct an oil war in Iraq with hardly a mention of the words "oil" and "war" in the same paragraph in those same papers over the years. Strange indeed. And yet, oil rules our world and energy lies behind so many of the headlines that might seem to be about other matters entirely.

Take the food riots now spreading across the planet because the prices of staples are soaring, while stocks of basics are falling. In the last year, wheat (think flour) has risen by 130 percent, rice by 74 percent, soya by 87 percent, and corn by 31 percent, while there are now only eight to 12 weeks of cereal stocks left globally. Governments across the planetary map are shuddering. This is a fast growing horror story and, though the cry in the streets of Cairo and Port au Prince might be for bread, this, too, turns out to be a tale largely ruled by energy: Too many acres turned over to corn (and sugar cane) for the creation of biofuels; a historic drought in Australia and other climate-change-induced extremes of weather -- a result of the burning of fossil fuels -- that have affected crop yields; and many new middle-class consumers, in China and elsewhere, coming on line, with a growing desire for meat, the production of which is heavily petroleum based.

From resource wars to oil wars (the subjects of his last two books), Michael Klare, Tomdispatch's energy expert, has long been ahead of the curve when it came to ways in which our planet was being reshaped at the most basic level. Today, he offers Tomdispatch readers a peek into some of the key themes in his staggering new book, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy. If you want to grasp the true shape of our shaky world, of where exactly we've been and where we might be going, this is a book not to be missed. It offers the profile-in-formation of a shape-shifting planet, a planet in transition and on a road to nowhere pretty. Check out as well, the latest Tomdispatch brief video (produced by TD's Brett Story) -- in which Klare discusses key issues in his new book -- by clicking here. Introduction written by TomDispatch editor Tom Engelhardt.

The End of the World as You Know It

...and the Rise of the New Energy World Order
By Michael T. Klare

Oil at $110 a barrel. Gasoline at $3.35 (or more) per gallon. Diesel fuel at $4 per gallon. Independent truckers forced off the road. Home heating oil rising to unconscionable price levels. Jet fuel so expensive that three low-cost airlines stopped flying in the past few weeks. This is just a taste of the latest energy news, signaling a profound change in how all of us, in this country and around the world, are going to live -- trends that, so far as anyone can predict, will only become more pronounced as energy supplies dwindle and the global struggle over their allocation intensifies.

Energy of all sorts was once hugely abundant, making possible the worldwide economic expansion of the past six decades. This expansion benefited the United States above all -- along with its "First World" allies in Europe and the Pacific. Recently, however, a select group of former "Third World" countries -- China and India in particular -- have sought to participate in this energy bonanza by industrializing their economies and selling a wide range of goods to international markets. This, in turn, has led to an unprecedented spurt in global energy consumption -- a 47 percent rise in the past 20 years alone, according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE).

An increase of this sort would not be a matter of deep anxiety if the world's primary energy suppliers were capable of producing the needed additional fuels. Instead, we face a frightening reality: a marked slowdown in the expansion of global energy supplies just as demand rises precipitously. These supplies are not exactly disappearing -- though that will occur sooner or later -- but they are not growing fast enough to satisfy soaring global demand.


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See more stories tagged with: oil, oil prices, energy, energy consumption, energy exports, war

Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Mass., and the author of Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency.

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Read The Long Emergency & Twilight in the Desert
Posted by: NoPCZone on Apr 16, 2008 12:23 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Kunstler nailed it and everybody in the MSM called it an interesting, but unlikely book. Matt Simmons warned of Peak Oil and it's obvious that we are in the midst of it. Same kind of reviews from many in the MSM- dismissive while saying it's thought provoking.

The old Chinese curse saying 'may you live in interesting times' has been invoked. Interesting times indeed.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

» Wrong Posted by: xi_people
» RE: Geothermal Energy can fill our energy needs Posted by: rfrancis@godisdead.com
So what did Cheney's energy commission discuss
Posted by: SENILEBIKER on Apr 16, 2008 12:33 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
This story is not new. In the 1970's when I was a student, we discussed the Club of Rome's "Limits to Growth", which said the exact same thing, but with different numbers.

So then you get to the famous "classified" energy discussions of Cheney in 2001, and it is hard to work out what was on the agenda? And is it surprising that a few months later, the PNAC'ers decided to fabricate reasons to invade the one oil producer that was already dominated by the US military?

In their view, this is not a war on terror, but a war of survival of their way of life - not religious but economic. It was all written on the PNAC site.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

» I was just thinking the same. Posted by: Artkansas
» Limits to growth... Posted by: ahmlco
» RE: Limits to growth... Posted by: photon's feather
Michael T. Klare knows a lot about fossil fuels. . .
Posted by: thoughtcriminal on Apr 16, 2008 1:54 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
but the fact is enough sunlight falls on the earth in one hour to power all of human society for one year.

The reason that sunlight and wind haven't been tapped as energy sources has nothing to do with technological barriers or economic ones. It's because entrenched interests in fossil fuels have been working hard to a) stimulate demand for fossil fuels and b) sabotage efforts to build large scale renewable energy and efficient transportation infrastructure - electric trains, electric cars, solar PV factories, wind turbine factories, etc.

As a result, if you want to buy solar panels in the U.S., you'll probably have to get them from Europe or Japan. This is changing - but very slowly, because the funding sources, i.e. banks, are more interested in controlling oil reserves and gambling on credit derivatives than in investing in expensive infrastructure.

Here are a few links for the doubters:

U.S. scientists have solar power plan, UPI

Stunning Solar Building Will Generate More Power Than It Needs, ENN

Abu Dhabi unveil plans for sustainable city

You won't read much about such initiatives in the U.S. corporate press because the likes of NewsCorp, TimeWarner, Viacom-CBS, General Electric, Disney and the other corporate media outlets are all owned by the very same funds and banks that are deeply invested in fossil fuels and do not want to have to invest all their profits into new infrastructure.

Where exactly do you think that all the cash that had previously been invested in subprimes has gone to as people have dumped those stocks? Commodities! Food, oil, water - the basics. So what led to the spikes?

1. The subprime collapse and the rush of speculative finance out of dirty loan packages and into commodities - Costly food? Investors only partly to blame - Reuters

2. The rise in the price of fossil fuels, and the immediate knock-on effect on food transport costs and fertilizer costs.

3. Global warming is destroying food crops at an ever-increasing rate - for example, Arkansas winter wheat crop hit by flooding, Mar 2008. This results in steady price increases.

4. Globalizaton has resulted in monopolies in which countries like Africa and Indonesia are dependent on U.S. food imports for their very survival. This allows the likes of Cargill and ADM to jack up prices as much as they wish - because they've cornered the market by undercutting local farmers for years under the rules allowed by U.S. "bilateral trade agreements." That's the real reason corn prices spiked in Mexico recently.

5. Increased demand for grains by countries that want to set up U.S.-style meat feedlot operations dominated by grain-feeding. In the real world, cows and goats are meant to eat grass, not grains.

6. Increased demand for biofuels produced from commodity crops. This points out the central issue that everyone always ignores: industrial agriculture (i.e. the "Green Revolution" model trumpted by Monsanto, Syngenta etc.) is a disaster. We need to end the practice entirely and switch to an entirely renewable, organic agricultural system dominated by independent farmers, not corporate conglomerates.

Compare that list of food price influences with the shoddy analysis put out by Paul Krugman at the NYT - he doesn't think commodity speculation is involved.

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» RE: Michael T. Klare knows a lot about fossil fuels. . . Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
» well, no Posted by: abbadon2007
» Your argument falls apart Posted by: suprmark
» RE: Stupid is as stupid does, but that proves nothing ... Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
» RE: Your argument falls apart Posted by: Squarehead
» Thank you 'thoughtcriminal'! Posted by: agathena
» Nader Over 30-Years Ago Posted by: mcartri
» Not true Posted by: PaulC
Helloooo! It's castles and peons again?
Posted by: nzo on Apr 16, 2008 2:00 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It's back to the ones inside the castle walls and the poor sods outside who do their bidding?

Think again. You will either learn to live in cooperation and dare I say it, friendship, or you will be expunged from the face of the earth as if you and your greedy corporations have never existed. Not even a memory of you will remain.

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The Coming Energy Crisis ... Starvation, Economic Collapse and War.
Posted by: mmckinl on Apr 16, 2008 2:09 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Miichael Klare is a brilliant analyst and has been writing on Peak Oil for over 3 years now. One of the first articles I read on Peak Oil was in The Nation written by Michael Klare.

Crude Awakening

We now know that demand for oil is out running supply by the price of oil. The weaker dollar and speculation cannot explain the current price of oil of above $110 a barrel. Just 9 years ago it was selling below $20 a barrel, 1/5th today's price, a five fold increase. We also know that oil production was lower in 2007 than 2006 even though the world economy was growing at over 4%.

What's important to note is that even with the increase in the price of oil, oil supply has not kept up.

Michael Klare presents a picture of war for these resources. Even before war breaks out, starvation will ravage the planet. Poor countries will only have the means to feed a fraction of their population.

The industrialized countries will be suffering severe recessions and political will to subsidize seemingly hopeless food situations in unimportant locations will not happen. Hundreds of millions perhaps over a billion will starve to death. Contiguous countries with previous animosity towards one another will see politicians banging the war drums. We see this happening already around the world, it will only get worse.

We already see Europe securing it's oil and gas supplies from Russia and Iran via pipeline. That leaves the Anglo nations with Japan, India and China as competing interests in the oil and gas competition. Pakistan and Iran will be wildcards in this game.

As the financial and agricultural systems in these competing countries fail, and joblessness and hunger multiply, the pressure to act will become politically impossible to contain. The driving force behind these financial and agricultural failures, and militarization, has in the past and will be again "leveraged debt banking" , known as "fractional reserve banking" by the private bankers.

Why is this so? Because leveraged debt banking cannot survive with out geometric economic growth to supply the ever increasing supply of money to service the massive debts of society. With the failure of the banking system will come the breakdown of the economy to the point where food and fuel become ever more scarce. Massive layoffs, hunger and then violence will proliferate. The politicians will have to use military spending to bolster the money supply and then find a villain. War will be imminent.

There is a way out. Reforming the banking system so that the reduction in economic activity can be managed foregoing the crash that 'fractional reserve' banking will cause. A new banking system using credit money, a money supply printed by our Treasury, not the Fed, that would not contract with the contraction in the economy. Thus the economy, although diminished, would not crash.

It is time for a Public Central Bank, operating under the Treasury, to take control of our money supply. Cooperation for resource allocation could then divert war while countries reformulated their economic systems to cope with the available energy supplies. War would make the situation far worse as energy supply lines would be cut and energy sources destroyed while only God knows how many people would perish.

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» RE: change the bank system..lol Posted by: wittler youth
Very well analyzed and written report of the world situation!
Posted by: nmfoss on Apr 16, 2008 2:48 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Im very happy to read articles like this, even though they do impose a very dark and cruel reality and future. Reason is that it is of essence to understand the mechanics of this situation.

From my own experience I was in northern Thailand when the current Iraqi war startet and oil prices soared. Thailand is not a developing country, but still oil prices and the price of transportation of any goods like food from the coastlines to inland was IMEDIATLY noticed. Prices in stores plunged, and people parked their cars, transportation companies i.e. bus, train saw huge losses because of the need to keep prices low to keep flow and volume in travelers. This is what happened in a pretty developed country... what we see in Haiti today can soon happen for countries higher in the "food chain".

A point I would like to add to this article is the conection between coastal and inland costs. Most transportation of any goods origins from coastal towns with freighters to inlands with trailers. I think we will see a migration of people to coastlines because of cheaper prices there compared to inland prices with the extra and now fast growing transportation costs. What this would result in I dont know, but perhaps huge coastal towns with large slums and great poverty. Inland economies collaps.

We live in interresting times indeed.

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» Maybe in Thailand... Posted by: Cooltruth
» RE: Maybe in Thailand... Posted by: nmfoss
» Haiti? No. Posted by: ahmlco
How corporate interests sabotage renewable energy initiatives:
Posted by: thoughtcriminal on Apr 16, 2008 3:33 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I live in California and I've closely followed the efforts to move solar PV into the market, which have been fought tooth and nail by the big energy importers in California, such as PG&E, Chevron, and Sempra Energy.

In the first round, they got the Million Solar Roofs proposal killed. In the second round, they managed to attach a rider that killed "net metering" - meaning that people who installed a solar panel system couldn't sell power back. Look at the language in the bill:

"Crediting Consumers for Excess Power Produced: Consumers who install solar panels on their homes and businesses can sell excess energy back to power companies for credit on their monthly bills. This credit is a key incentive for consumers to install solar panels. Currently, the cap on the number of customers who can use this option is .5 percent. SB 1 raises this to 2.5 percent. Raising the ceiling will provide part of the needed financial incentive to bring more solar power on to the grid."

2.5 percent - so if more than 2.5 percent of Californians put solar on their houses, they won't be able to sell it back to the utility.

It's the same across the board. Every wind turbine proposal and biofuel proposal is fought by a network of fossil fuel and utility PR firms. The only places in California that have seen solar programs take off are those communities that have publicly owned utilities - Sacramento and Palo Alto.

The thing is, PG&E and Sempra and Chevron are all owned by the same investors! Their agenda is to import coal-fired electricity and liquified natural gas and heavy sour crude into the state, and that's their planned energy future!

There are a great many investors, but you see the same names pop up over and over again in the areas of fossil fuels and electric utilities (also in telecoms, pharmaceuticals, agribusiness, weapons & government contracting). For example, look at two leading global banks that are heavily invested in fossil fuels - Barclays and State Street:

Edison International major shareholders
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd
$1,898,172,790
STATE STREET CORPORATION
$1,814,422,771

Sempra Energy major shareholders
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings
$822,772,692
STATE STREET CORPORATION
$623,680,908

Chevron major shareholders
STATE STREET CORPORATION
$8,356,486,810
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd
$7,772,350,019

Edison sells electricity, Sempra sells natural gas, and Chevron owns what used to be Unocal's Burmese natural gas concession. The goal is to take natural gas from Burma, ship it in liquified form to terminals in Mexico (operated by Sempra), and then use it to run Edison and PG&E power plants all across the state. The shareholders know this.

If, instead, California switches to renewable energy - solar and wind and biofuels - then the entire business plan of these three gigantic corporations and the trillion-dollar banks that own them will be kaput.

State Street Corporation is also the sole manager of the California Public Employee Retirement System - CALPERS - and they make damn sure that that $200 billion fund does not invest in renewable energy! They also control the UC system funds - same type of mentality.

How many millions will they spend to keep on polluting the air and frying the planet? Many, I'm afraid - and they've got the majority of our politicians firmly in their pockets.

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» THE UGLY TRUTH WITHIN... Posted by: skizum
An intensely "local" future
Posted by: xi_people on Apr 16, 2008 5:02 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I've been telling anyone who would listen for the past three years (and there haven't been many) that the days of easy global transportation for the masses is coming to a close. No more hopping on planes to fly where one chooses, for anything resembling a "reasonable" price.

Look for massive consolidation in the airline industry. Smaller lines will drop out, as they are already starting to do, and the larger ones will combine for survival. It won't work. In an era of energy scarcity, the airline industry business model -- which, more than any other is dependent upon cheap oil -- is not viable. The same could be said of the "American way of life."

If you're not in a locality where you might be able to survive extensive periods of energy shortages, then you better get moving. Once TSHTF, pretty much no one is moving anywhere, unless its by foot or bicycle.

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» RE: An intensely "local" future Posted by: andabottleof_rum
» RE: An intensely "local" future Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
» Reality check Posted by: Ignatz deFyre
» RE: bikes!....... Posted by: wittler youth
too many....
Posted by: dsmidiman on Apr 16, 2008 5:19 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You put too many rats in a space without enough food water and room and the rats start killing off each other to get the food and water and the room to survive. This is what our world is quickly becoming. It's called survival of the fittest.

Sadly, there are ways to make it work for everyone but it requires collectively working together for the common good of all people. We humans are no smarter than rats when it comes to this way of thinking. We are so driven by power, greed and control that we can't see the forest from the trees.

The people driving the buses in our world are convinced that the answer is to become so rich and powerful that they and only they have the ability to control who gets the resources to survive and who doesn't. The deciding factor(s) of who does and who doesn't survive is/will be based on those who are willing to except and live life the way the people driving the buses dictate. There is some truth to the fact that someone(s) has to drive the buses but when those drivers are fueled by power control and greed instead of equality and the common good of ALL we have the situation we have today in the world.

If only the money being spent on the war(s) being waged in our world in order to gain power and control was being spent on alternative ways to make it work for all peoples it would be a no brainer. But in order to do that it would mean those people driving the buses would loose a good part of thier wealth which in turn means loosing power and control. Sadly this will never happen.

History has shown us time and time again that power, greed, control and ultimate dictatorship always ends in disaster sooner or later. It will end that way this time also....

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CASH IN and BAIL OUT!
Posted by: williameon on Apr 16, 2008 5:25 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The Dinosaurs are going down.
The Micro-Democracy Revolution!

Create your own Micro-Democracy right Now!

Think outside of
The Corpirate Box.

Leave The Corrupt Bush/Chain-Gang System behind and
Beginning with a
Fresh set of Ideals and Goals.
How can we build a viable, sustainable, peaceful future?

Take what is left of your resources and join:
A Sustainable Communities Program or
Create your own project.

Pick an appropriate location or start where you are.
It is a win, win situation.
You win your families Freedom and Independence.
From The Corpirate Dictatorship.

The Model:
A Community based on the concept that:
It is a Colony on a remote Island.
Build a carefully designed, self contained system.
Using: recyclable, Renewable, self perpetuating, sustainable, green energy resources and manufacturing techniques.

A Community that provides for its inhabitants needs: manufacturing, educating, banking, organic food, passive solar, high –r buildings, the local media and the arts.
The Community is a cooperative held in Trust.
Only the individual homes are individually owned as Co-ops.

Everyone is looking for a leader to lead us out of this mess.
The day of the Martha is over and the day of the Doer is at hand.
Complete Decentralization.
We must provide the good example.
The future is shaped by those that seize the moment.
That Opportunity and Time is Now!

Take the best of what we know and start your own:
Micro Democracy Experiment.
Withdraw your support from
The Corpirates and
Their Evil Empire will collapse even sooner.

Rely on yourself and your neighbors.
We have tryed to change the system from within for
Decades!
It is a failure.
Give up on it and
The system has grown stronger and our freedoms have gotten weaker.
It is time to start over using a completely
Different Model.
One that we control, build and benefit from.
A Decentralized One that reaffirms our
We must re-affirm our positive Ideals and Goals:
To Live in Peace and Harmony with our Environment, Neighbors and Friends:
Independently and Free.
Let’s take the best of what we know and move on,
Creating a better and brighter Tomorrow!

Provide the opportunity for our children to co-create their own future.
The possibilities exists.
Pick the Path and stay on it.

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» Sounds like.. Posted by: Marlena
» smart thing to do.... Posted by: veggiegrrrl
» RE: smart thing to do.... Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
» go find a farmer... Posted by: veggiegrrrl
» RE: go find a farmer... Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
» RE: smart thing to do.... hey Fat Man Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
» RE:barrio in a brazil garbage dump? Posted by: wittler youth
Ha
Posted by: g50 on Apr 16, 2008 5:53 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
A good number of ya'll are just plain nuts.

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US Soldiers fighting so they can be Poor in the Future
Posted by: US Citizen on Apr 16, 2008 6:12 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I think there is a common misconception about the Iraq War that it is being fought to help the United States get cheaper oil. The Iraq War is being fought so the major oil companies can get control of another major source of oil, so that they can have a monopoly on the supply of oil which allows them to raise oil and gasoline prices world wide. The Iraq War has already been successful in this goal. The Iraq War is directly against the best interests of the great majority of United States citizens. So here we have US soldiers fighting against their own and their families' best economic interests. The soldiers are fighting so their families can be poor in the future.

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PURE BULLSHIT ! No discussion about the ways Big Oil and Coal are STIFLING growth in alt renewables
Posted by: maxpayne on Apr 16, 2008 6:14 AM   
Current rating: 3    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
This article is way outdated even though it may be truthful. Could we instead have a discussion about the way Big Oil and Coal are using phoney patents to stifle growth in solar and wind or even continuously lobbying BIG GOVERNMENT to keep the 26000 uses of hemp OFF the "free" market? In addition, it would be helpful to get the progressive and liberal shit together and actually go on the offensive against Big Oil and Coal by taking down the pols in Washington serving them like puppets. This "end of the world" bullshit is not a way to get us out of our current difficulties. Everybody already knows all that shit but now it's time for real solutions. Let's get to work on repairing public transportation by fighting for light rails in place of coal-wasting trains or even keeping bus fares reasonably priced rather than OBSCENELY high-priced. And why not build bike and walkway paths so that more people can actually bike or walk to work rather than be forced to sit through very heavy traffic? I don't see the so-called "environmentalists" giving those kinds of ideas any food for thought. And I'm not even talking about solar, wind, hemp, etc ... although I think they'd be great once crummy professors such as this author would point out the truth about solar and wind actually helping solve a great deal of the world's actually energy needs. And with hemp, all the petroleum that goes into manufacturing just about every plastics can be replaced with hemp. Listening to this crummy professor is as "good" as listening to Pat FUCKING Robertson talking about the "apocalypse" BULLSHIT !

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» REALLY PISSED OFF? Posted by: skizum
» RE: ALLY PISSED OFF? Posted by: maxpayne
» BTW... Posted by: skizum
» NO SWEAT... Posted by: skizum
How else could we crash?
Posted by: leemiller38 on Apr 16, 2008 6:55 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The most likely scenario to end this human outbreak in population is by disease, starvation and war, that is the way it goes according to Malthus and that apparently is a natural law you can count on. Oil is the ingredient that has produced our current civilization and boom in population by increasing our food supply.
Each human in the U.S. will use over 1000 barrels of oil in a lifetime. Hence every successful contraception and abortion should be welcomed as an energy conservation boon to stretch out our supply and put off the inevitable crash when oil and food become scarce. At the same time we are running out of cheap oil and consequently food, 75 million new humans are getting onboard this crowded and degraded planet per year. We should be limiting our numbers severely by a one child policy, but alas we aren't that smart so nature will do the job more effectively at some point.

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» Birth rates... Posted by: ahmlco
The Four Grim Horsemen
Posted by: DrGeneNelson on Apr 16, 2008 7:05 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The second paragraph of the article begins, "Take the food riots now spreading across the planet because the prices of staples are soaring,.."

The fundamental problem is soaring populations, far in excess of the carrying capacity of the local economy.

We are the only species that can develop an accurate model of the future. http://www.Census.gov shows the current world population at 6.66 billion on 16 April 2008. The world population has doubled in about 40 years. Much of that population growth is the consequence of inexpensive petroleum, which fueled the "green revolution."

Eventually, the world population will be forced to match available resources. Absent voluntary (or coerced) population control, the means include war, famine, and disease. The latter three are painful.

While there were futurists and environmentalists who raised concerns about U.S. overpopulation in the 1970s, they were shouted down by special interests who understood the concept "overpopulation is profitable." Labor gluts drive down middle-class wages. Population gluts drive up the price of the necessaries of life. Usually, the economic beneficiaries of overpopulation are members of the economic elite.

I remember a bumper sticker from about 40 years ago, "condoms, not condominiums." Will our species understand these concepts before it is too late?

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» Right. Those idiots... Posted by: ahmlco
Imminent world disater nothing new under the sun
Posted by: peterpiano on Apr 16, 2008 7:13 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
My head is reeling from reading this article, and
it as if we are all sleeping at the switch and don't want to know or realize the dire consequences of consumption which is the
American way of life. Now other countries want to be part of the action and there isn't enough to go around to give them an endless supply of energy to fuel their economies. I just see it this as Henry Ford's Dream gone array. Our romance with the automobile and the infernal combustion engine has brought us to an impasse.
Strange that we were able to fight two world wars and many other skirmishes that used fossil fuels to make the planes, tanks and military machines go. There always seems to be enough fuel to fight wars and we don't have to worry about a nuclear exchange in the mean time to do us in. The seed of destruction have been planted
all the the long with industrialization of the planet and the military is used to go about its business so that we can maintain a hold on what we so desperately need. Electric cars, trains, solar energy, wind power and renewable resources are available, but I don't see anyone in rush to
encourage the alternatives, since big oil has a strangle hold on the world. The war in Iraq is propounded on the idea that we have to get those
terrorists while this is just a cover to control the region and the liquid gold that lies therein. Its the same old thing over and over again, anyone remember the 70's and the post Vietnam Era where we waited in line with odd and even plates designated to be entitled to the fuel on given days? Isn't there a photo Rumsfeld
shaking hands with Saddam in 1979. Interesting how we ingratiate ourselves with the countries that we need to keep us up and running. So this article with its global forecast of doom and gloom is nothing new under the sun as if we didn't know that this is imminent. What to do then? What actions need to be take to avert the inevitable demise of the planet? To bad that the article points out all this negative news and
doesn't talk too much about how to turn it around.

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» RE: 1979 hand shake Posted by: wittler youth
DIE, LIFESTYLE, DIE!!!
Posted by: edgeofnowhere on Apr 16, 2008 7:31 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
"Replacing" fossil fuels with an alternative source of energy in order to enable us to maintain our present lifestyle is not possible. Be it solar, nuclear or methane from chickenshit -- it ain't gonna happen! What we need to "replace" is the hideously consumptive "lifestyle" we have come to regard as a natural right. Whether we like it or not, our world is going to contract radically in the next half century, giving rise to a new emphasis on local and regional society. No more blueberries from Chile. Forget about that jetaway vacation to Hawaii. Anyway, you'll probably be too busy trying to get enough food to eat. This will probably not come about gently, so buckle up folks!

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» YES Posted by: Democratic Socialist
missing link
Posted by: shikejian on Apr 16, 2008 7:35 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
What's missing in all this is the impending financial crisis for the world: a depression greater than The Great Depression on the 1930's. Taking this into account changes things immensely. Resource rich nations will find no one can afford their resources and the needy will have to fall back on really developing alternatives and means by which existing resources are used in a more maximally productive manner. The article is based, then, on no change to present states, no change in variables. A very dangerous assumption.

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Doomed on the Titanic?
Posted by: writerman on Apr 16, 2008 8:07 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The last thirty odd years, the so-called Reagan and Thatcher (counter)revolutions have been an unmitigated disaster seen from an environmental and social perspective.

Instead of building on, and extending the 'reforms' of the 1960's, the reverse happened. Instead of more liberty, equality and fraternity; a kind of humane socialism; we got short-sighted greed and Capitalism's last stand.

Iraq is the model for the future of western capitalism, not a temporary aboration or a mistake. At it's core Capitalism is a form of crime, but a culturally sanctione crime, like slavery which has always been an integral and vital ingredient. 'Free' labour is vital in such a system in order to provide profits and growth.

If we had started thirty years ago, weening ourselves off of fossil fuels, the transformation to a post-fossil fuel society would have been difficult but managable - only we didn't, so the changes we now face are going to be very, very, difficult indeed.

Personally I doubt that 'Western-style' democracy is really up to the challenge, some form of 'Facist' dictatorship is likely to emerge as the ruling elites 'answer' to problems of scarcity. This will not be pretty to watch or live under.

The solution to our problems would appear to be a radical transformation of society towards something resembling 'socialism'. The 'free-market' and Capitalism unbound are leading us towards the edge of a cliff at lighting speed. It may already be too late to avert disaster, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't at least try. In the face of barbarism trying to maintain civilization's best characteristics has a certain nobility, at least one goes down still human being rather than a beast. And isn't this what Capitalism really is underneath, a form of beastiality?

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» RE: Doomed on the Titanic? Posted by: mnatra
Whitewash!
Posted by: Iconoclast421 on Apr 16, 2008 8:43 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
He actually talked about exports, even dared to use the phrase "exportable energy", but I think he whitewashed it a bit.

Google "ELM iron triangle".

As exporting nations gain wealth, their own consumption rises at a very high rate, causing exports to be reduced. Once oil production peaks in an exporting nation, it only takes less than a decade for their net exports to be reduced to ZERO. This has happened in many exporting countries. It is currently happening to mexico. Imagine what happens to the US when mexico becomes a net importer of oil? It seems like the game will be over before that happens, but then again, that is exactly where mexico is headed, in less than 5 years.

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Even if
Posted by: willymack on Apr 16, 2008 11:03 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Vast new "energy" sources are discovered or developed, just in time to save the day for our insanely wasteful and irresponsible "way of life", should we go ahead and burn the stuff, thereby adding huge amounts of co2 into an atmosphere already overloaded with it? Even prezdint numbskull has broken down and admitted there's a problem and it needs fixin'. One quick, although unpopular solution to our energy problem would be to seize the oil, coal, and gas company assets and put them to use in financing an intense research program to develop an energy source that doesn't involve burning anything. Let's face it; the energy companies have had it their way too long, and shouldn't be treated as royalty, when in fact they're nothing but money obsessed low lifes.

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NATIONALIZE THE AMERICA OIL INDUSTRY ...YOU IDIOTS..!
Posted by: TJ-stars4peace on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
This is why we must Nationalize the American Oil Industry and eventually all energy such as electric power...

If we Nationalized our Oil industry alone we could cut costs by 30-35% and still have nearly $60 billion per year for alternative energy sources and also to invest in new technologies..

Running our nations energy for profit undermines commerce..it is crippling our economy not strengthening it..

Were we to Nationalize our Oil Companies and all holdings we would create an economic boom..that would benefit every American and American company across the board..!

Also you realize of course that every second the Sun produces more energy every second that mankind has used in his entire history on Earth...!

Now there is new technology the blackest of all know black in the universe which only allows .014% of any sunlight to escape this is accomplished threw nano tubes..so we are on the threshold of a new level of solar panels and efficiency..

This is just one source and endless for the most part source of energy and power along with wind which is also seeing breakthroughs as well as turbines..which can be placed in rivers such as the mighty Hudson imagine we here up state and NYC has a river as powerful as the Hudson running by and we pay through the nose for electricity..!

The most successful Oil Companies are all now State run world wide and it only makes sense..!

When Exxon Mobil makes $38 billion and spends $37 billion of that as the did last year buying back their own stock do you realize what a waste that is an obscene waste..$37 billion that could have gone to advancing our nation and we Americans as a people and then to make it a complete abomination this Administration wants to give them $15 billion in subsidies..! Subsidies..! It's obscene a perversion of biblical magnitude..!

These idiots running for president and our Congress say they want a Manhattan type project for energy well this is it..!

NATIONALIZE THE AMERICAN OIL INDUSTRY..YOU IDIOTS..!


Ps. The Airlines too..!

And Single Payer non profit Health Care..!

Peg the sub prime mortgages at 3% above the fed or Prime rate that problem would be solved as well..!


Ok go back to praising Obama for his bowling in a bathing suit while drinking "bitters.."..

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WHy rich people cannot and should not be permitted to run things
Posted by: DaBear on Apr 16, 2008 2:26 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Based on current rates of development and investment, the DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030, fossil fuels will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in 2004. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight -- a mere 8.1 percent -- as to be virtually meaningless.

This is often used as an excuse to do nothing to get more rooftops on PVs and more ridgelines topped with turbines.

Fact is, by the time rich people do something it'll be too god dammed late. Every rooftop that doesn't have PVs or Solar heating on top in the Amerikaaner SW is a criminal behavior. Every town or city that doesn't zone-in solar and wind, at minimum, is ruled by liars and cheats; rich people. Criminal liability needs to be laid at their feet since they're our "deciders"... fuckers.

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Eat the rich, blow up a hummer, BBQ a banker/oilman/corporatist ceo/
Posted by: thekidde on Apr 16, 2008 3:25 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
... "not with a bang, but a whimper" bye, bye humanity you didn't last even as long as the dinosaurs because you were too greedy for your own good.

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PEAK OIL IS A LIE
Posted by: HANGTRAITORS on Apr 16, 2008 7:07 PM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent