Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?

while various causes for future food shortages are discussed here, including the tenuous global warming projections based on non-historical computer models, there is a common thread driving demand-overpopulation. Without all those hungry mouths water and soil shortages shrink, food supplies become adequate, and living standards rise. Perhaps the car producers in China and India weep.
And all that processed food and its wrapping can vanish.

Short of nuclear war however the governments of the overpopulated world like China, Mexico, India, Pakistan and Brazil, along with Africa(including Egypt) will do nothing to lop off the useless four billion or so consumers and breathers. Perhaps Western nations plus Russia should prepare several thousand H Bombs geared totally for population reduction. Overpopulated nations in effect have already declared war on the civilized nations.

Famines and plagues used to do what we must do ourselves in order to survive.

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Why you so blithely refer to 4 billion persons as useless breathers and consumers, I was wondering if you consider yourself one of these? If not, may I be so impertinate as to ask what makes one NOT useless? What are the others doing that makes them different? Really, I would like to know your secret.

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If cows can eat cows, why not people? Incineration and burial are total wastes of protein. Factory farms are such a large petrol consumer, why not make our oil wars work for them, by grinding up the collateral and intentional damages and feeding them to cows? The term "collateral" no longer need apply (not that it means anything anyways)! Morality has been off the table for so long, it won't count as a counter-argument. Plus, just think of the savings and benefits to corporations, who will be able to argue for deregulation in the name of the cows! A clear win-win for cows and corporations, and of course our Mother Earth.

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Unfortunately, only North America can prevent this disaster. Our central plains, which drain into the Mississippi via the Missouri, Ohio, and countless other rivers and tributaries, have seen an increase in outflow of water into the Gulf of Mexico of 22% since 1948. The north/south configuration of the Rockies, the Mississippi valley, and the Appalachians ensures that warm, humid, equatorial air comes into contact with cold, dry, arctic air. Our legendary thunderstorms with their huge hail and destructive tornadoes tell the tale. The increasing fury of hurricanes drives greater quantities of moisture further inland. Horribly, we are benefiting from global climate change.

South America has the north/south Andes, but the land mass tapers off to the south. Africa has no east/west impediment, but it too tapers off to the south in terms of arable land. Eurasia is cursed by a mountain barrier, which stretches from the Pyrenees in Portugal, across the Alps, Transylvanian, Caucuses, Zagros, Hindu Kush, to the Himalayan mountains. This mega-range prohibits the equatorial air from contacting the arctic air to the north. Precipitation levels north of this mega-range are dependent on the moisture brought from the warm north Atlantic ocean currents across Europe, and the warm Pacific currents across northern China. These might be disrupted as the huge quantities of fresh, cold water pouring into the northern oceans creates a saline/temperature inversion, and shuts the "engine" down.

Right now, every major, non-arctic river in the world but the Mississippi is seeing huge reductions in outflow (from the AP, Tue Apr 21, 2009:

""...for many of the world's large rivers the effects of human activities on yearly streamflow are likely small compared with that of climate variations during 1948-2004."

"Discharge of river water into the oceans deposits sediment near the river mouth and also affects worldwide ocean circulation patterns, which are driven by variations in water temperature and salinity.

In the United States, the flow of the Mississippi River increased by 22 percent over the period because of increased precipitation across the Midwest. On the other hand, the Columbia River's flow declined by about 14 percent, mainly because of reduced precipitation and higher water usage.

Major rivers showing declines in flow included the Amazon, Congo, Changjiang (Yangtze), Mekong, Ganges, Irrawaddy, Amur, Mackenzie, Xijiang, Columbia and Niger."



So, the US needs to begin taking immediate action. We could produce millions of jobs in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture with one, massive, federal project-- a Floodwater Sequestration and Re-Introduction Program.

A huge network of high-capacity pipelines stretching up and down our flood-prone rivers and reaching as far as the foothills of the Rockies and the Appalachians needs to be built. During the 100 year floods which appear to be happening every five years, as much of this precious fresh water as possible should be extracted, and using wind-generated electricity, pumped back up the high plains to the west and the valleys of the Appalachians to the east. Along the way it would be treated and filtered, before being re-introduced via two methods: 1. Actual release into the millions of playa lakes and creek, stream, and river beds which are natural re-charge venues for the many now-depleted (by wasteful irrigation techniques), underground aquifers; and 2. Re-introduced directly into the water table using the same wells which the original water was taken out with.

Then, using sustainable agricultural techniques like no-till, drip irrigation, and ending monoculture, these rich soils of our central continental mass might be able to keep the population of the world from collapsing while we deal with the causes which have threatened that collapse.

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One side of the problem is lower yields of grains but another is that most of the varieties of plants used to feed us and most of the races of animals bred for higher milk or meat production are requiring extremely HIGH inputs that when not met they underperform compare to conventional plants and traditional animal husbandry results. The most fundemental right of farmers and animal breeders from ancient times was to collect and replant his seed and to reproduce his animals using his livestock. Many of the conventional varieties are better adopted in the climatic and soil conditions that were developed and cost nothing. The hybrids MAY give high yields but cost a lot and require expensive inputs. The "improved" animals are so only in ideal conditions of abudance(western countries) expose them to heat low nutrition and little water and they are worse than any domestic race that is after all adopted. When talking about "mind set" i seriously believe we should reconsider the male sterility and the"super animals"

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As the recent votes in Congress on the bankruptcy question and the credit card usury limits shows, the issue is we know what we need but it is not terrible enough yet to do anything. When it comes to food, we have had information on the threat since the 1960s.

We had information about the looming economic slowdown, too. We had to wait for it actually to hit before we were willing to listen.

The issue not addressed by this article is that every attempt to ameliorate the tragedy simply postpones it. That is, it will get worse not better by taking the actions suggested.

No matter what we do, our planet cannot support 9 billion people without most suffering. So, get real and prepare for the worst. As upthread mentions, we heard about Soylent Green two generations ago. We postponed it so now we must face it amplified. "What fools these mortals be."

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