COMMENTS: 9
Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?
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We desperately need a new way of thinking, a new mind-set. The thinking that got us into this bind will not get us out. When Elizabeth Kolbert, a writer for the New Yorker, asked energy guru Amory Lovins about thinking outside the box, Lovins responded: "There is no box."
There is no box. That is the mind-set we need if civilization is to survive.
It's not news that Lester Brown is warning about our unsustainable approach to feeding the planet. But it is news that Scientific American has run a major article by him on how "The biggest threat to global stability is the potential for food crises in poor countries to cause government collapse."
Brown's "Key Concepts":
- Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poor countries into chaos.
- Such "failed states" can export disease, terrorism, illicit drugs, weapons and refugees.
- Water shortages, soil losses and rising temperatures from global warming are placing severe limits on food production.
- Without massive and rapid intervention to address these three environmental factors, the author argues, a series of government collapses could threaten the world order.
Brown's warnings, ignored for too long, are now being repeated at the highest levels. For instance, I previously blogged on the UK government's chief scientist, Professor John Beddington, who laid out something very close to this collapse scenario in his speech yesterday to the government's Sustainable Development UK conference in Westminster (see "When the global Ponzi scheme collapses (circa 2030), the only jobs left will be green"):
You can see the catastrophic decline in those [food] reserves, over the last five years or so, indicates that we actually have a problem; we're not growing enough food, we're not able to put stuff into the reserves….
I am going to look at 2030 because that's when a whole series of events come together….
I will leave you with some key questions. Can nine billion people be fed? Can we cope with the demands in the future on water? Can we provide enough energy? Can we do it, all that, while mitigating and adapting to climate change? And can we do all that in 21 years time? That's when these things are going to start hitting in a really big way. We need to act now. We need investment in science and technology, and all the other ways of treating very seriously these major problems. 2030 is not very far away.
Brown's whole piece is worth reading. I'll excerpt the key points, trends and quotable facts here:
Failing states are of international concern because they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees, threatening political stability everywhere. Somalia, number one on the 2008 list of failing states, has become a base for piracy. Iraq, number five, is a hotbed for terrorist training. Afghanistan, number seven, is the world's leading supplier of heroin. Following the massive genocide of 1994 in Rwanda, refugees from that troubled state, thousands of armed soldiers among them, helped to destabilize neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (number six).
Here is the full list of 20 countries in the world that are closest to collapse, from worst to better, ranked in 2007 by the Fund for Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based on "12 social, economic, political and military indicators of national well-being."
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Posted by: johnwinthrop on May 12, 2009 11:54 AM
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And all that processed food and its wrapping can vanish.
Short of nuclear war however the governments of the overpopulated world like China, Mexico, India, Pakistan and Brazil, along with Africa(including Egypt) will do nothing to lop off the useless four billion or so consumers and breathers. Perhaps Western nations plus Russia should prepare several thousand H Bombs geared totally for population reduction. Overpopulated nations in effect have already declared war on the civilized nations.
Famines and plagues used to do what we must do ourselves in order to survive.
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Posted by: chance garden on May 12, 2009 2:24 PM
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» RE: So mr. johnwinthrop above..
Posted by: URANIUS
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Posted by: jingles on May 12, 2009 4:36 PM
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» SOYLENT GREEN IS HERE, or damn near
Posted by: oldhippy39
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Posted by: CZMD on May 15, 2009 12:37 PM
Current rating: 5 [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
South America has the north/south Andes, but the land mass tapers off to the south. Africa has no east/west impediment, but it too tapers off to the south in terms of arable land. Eurasia is cursed by a mountain barrier, which stretches from the Pyrenees in Portugal, across the Alps, Transylvanian, Caucuses, Zagros, Hindu Kush, to the Himalayan mountains. This mega-range prohibits the equatorial air from contacting the arctic air to the north. Precipitation levels north of this mega-range are dependent on the moisture brought from the warm north Atlantic ocean currents across Europe, and the warm Pacific currents across northern China. These might be disrupted as the huge quantities of fresh, cold water pouring into the northern oceans creates a saline/temperature inversion, and shuts the "engine" down.
Right now, every major, non-arctic river in the world but the Mississippi is seeing huge reductions in outflow (from the AP, Tue Apr 21, 2009:
""...for many of the world's large rivers the effects of human activities on yearly streamflow are likely small compared with that of climate variations during 1948-2004."
"Discharge of river water into the oceans deposits sediment near the river mouth and also affects worldwide ocean circulation patterns, which are driven by variations in water temperature and salinity.
In the United States, the flow of the Mississippi River increased by 22 percent over the period because of increased precipitation across the Midwest. On the other hand, the Columbia River's flow declined by about 14 percent, mainly because of reduced precipitation and higher water usage.
Major rivers showing declines in flow included the Amazon, Congo, Changjiang (Yangtze), Mekong, Ganges, Irrawaddy, Amur, Mackenzie, Xijiang, Columbia and Niger."
So, the US needs to begin taking immediate action. We could produce millions of jobs in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture with one, massive, federal project-- a Floodwater Sequestration and Re-Introduction Program.
A huge network of high-capacity pipelines stretching up and down our flood-prone rivers and reaching as far as the foothills of the Rockies and the Appalachians needs to be built. During the 100 year floods which appear to be happening every five years, as much of this precious fresh water as possible should be extracted, and using wind-generated electricity, pumped back up the high plains to the west and the valleys of the Appalachians to the east. Along the way it would be treated and filtered, before being re-introduced via two methods: 1. Actual release into the millions of playa lakes and creek, stream, and river beds which are natural re-charge venues for the many now-depleted (by wasteful irrigation techniques), underground aquifers; and 2. Re-introduced directly into the water table using the same wells which the original water was taken out with.
Then, using sustainable agricultural techniques like no-till, drip irrigation, and ending monoculture, these rich soils of our central continental mass might be able to keep the population of the world from collapsing while we deal with the causes which have threatened that collapse.
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» Well done, a plausible plan, now we need the will. nm
Posted by: Timba
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Posted by: malehawk on May 16, 2009 1:46 AM
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Posted by: Sojourner on May 16, 2009 8:41 AM
Current rating: 5 [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
We had information about the looming economic slowdown, too. We had to wait for it actually to hit before we were willing to listen.
The issue not addressed by this article is that every attempt to ameliorate the tragedy simply postpones it. That is, it will get worse not better by taking the actions suggested.
No matter what we do, our planet cannot support 9 billion people without most suffering. So, get real and prepare for the worst. As upthread mentions, we heard about Soylent Green two generations ago. We postponed it so now we must face it amplified. "What fools these mortals be."
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Comments are closed-
Posted by: johnwinthrop on May 12, 2009 11:54 AM
Current rating: Not yet rated [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
And all that processed food and its wrapping can vanish.
Short of nuclear war however the governments of the overpopulated world like China, Mexico, India, Pakistan and Brazil, along with Africa(including Egypt) will do nothing to lop off the useless four billion or so consumers and breathers. Perhaps Western nations plus Russia should prepare several thousand H Bombs geared totally for population reduction. Overpopulated nations in effect have already declared war on the civilized nations.
Famines and plagues used to do what we must do ourselves in order to survive.
[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]
Comments are closed-
Posted by: chance garden on May 12, 2009 2:24 PM
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» RE: So mr. johnwinthrop above..
Posted by: URANIUS
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Posted by: jingles on May 12, 2009 4:36 PM
Current rating: Not yet rated [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
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» SOYLENT GREEN IS HERE, or damn near
Posted by: oldhippy39
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Posted by: CZMD on May 15, 2009 12:37 PM
Current rating: 5 [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
South America has the north/south Andes, but the land mass tapers off to the south. Africa has no east/west impediment, but it too tapers off to the south in terms of arable land. Eurasia is cursed by a mountain barrier, which stretches from the Pyrenees in Portugal, across the Alps, Transylvanian, Caucuses, Zagros, Hindu Kush, to the Himalayan mountains. This mega-range prohibits the equatorial air from contacting the arctic air to the north. Precipitation levels north of this mega-range are dependent on the moisture brought from the warm north Atlantic ocean currents across Europe, and the warm Pacific currents across northern China. These might be disrupted as the huge quantities of fresh, cold water pouring into the northern oceans creates a saline/temperature inversion, and shuts the "engine" down.
Right now, every major, non-arctic river in the world but the Mississippi is seeing huge reductions in outflow (from the AP, Tue Apr 21, 2009:
""...for many of the world's large rivers the effects of human activities on yearly streamflow are likely small compared with that of climate variations during 1948-2004."
"Discharge of river water into the oceans deposits sediment near the river mouth and also affects worldwide ocean circulation patterns, which are driven by variations in water temperature and salinity.
In the United States, the flow of the Mississippi River increased by 22 percent over the period because of increased precipitation across the Midwest. On the other hand, the Columbia River's flow declined by about 14 percent, mainly because of reduced precipitation and higher water usage.
Major rivers showing declines in flow included the Amazon, Congo, Changjiang (Yangtze), Mekong, Ganges, Irrawaddy, Amur, Mackenzie, Xijiang, Columbia and Niger."
So, the US needs to begin taking immediate action. We could produce millions of jobs in manufacturing, construction, and agriculture with one, massive, federal project-- a Floodwater Sequestration and Re-Introduction Program.
A huge network of high-capacity pipelines stretching up and down our flood-prone rivers and reaching as far as the foothills of the Rockies and the Appalachians needs to be built. During the 100 year floods which appear to be happening every five years, as much of this precious fresh water as possible should be extracted, and using wind-generated electricity, pumped back up the high plains to the west and the valleys of the Appalachians to the east. Along the way it would be treated and filtered, before being re-introduced via two methods: 1. Actual release into the millions of playa lakes and creek, stream, and river beds which are natural re-charge venues for the many now-depleted (by wasteful irrigation techniques), underground aquifers; and 2. Re-introduced directly into the water table using the same wells which the original water was taken out with.
Then, using sustainable agricultural techniques like no-till, drip irrigation, and ending monoculture, these rich soils of our central continental mass might be able to keep the population of the world from collapsing while we deal with the causes which have threatened that collapse.
[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]
» Well done, a plausible plan, now we need the will. nm
Posted by: Timba
Comments are closed-
Posted by: malehawk on May 16, 2009 1:46 AM
Current rating: Not yet rated [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
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Comments are closed-
Posted by: Sojourner on May 16, 2009 8:41 AM
Current rating: 5 [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
We had information about the looming economic slowdown, too. We had to wait for it actually to hit before we were willing to listen.
The issue not addressed by this article is that every attempt to ameliorate the tragedy simply postpones it. That is, it will get worse not better by taking the actions suggested.
No matter what we do, our planet cannot support 9 billion people without most suffering. So, get real and prepare for the worst. As upthread mentions, we heard about Soylent Green two generations ago. We postponed it so now we must face it amplified. "What fools these mortals be."
[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]
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