Anti-War Voters Trust McCain to Make Decisions About 'War on Terror'

We don't know who will carry the Democrats' banner onto the political battlefield this fall. But we do know the kind of attack the Dems will face. The McCain campaign has little in its arsenal beyond two words: "No Surrender" -- no surrender anywhere, but especially in Iraq. Its strategy is merely to hurl that phrase over and over again, in every form imaginable.

Can it work, with public opinion still so firmly against the war? Frank Rich, a liberal stalwart of the New York Times op-ed page, doubts it. He claims that "the mere mention of Iraq is dangerous to Mr. McCain. … It will be a slam-dunk for Democrats to argue that it's long past time for the Iraqis to stand up on a sensible timetable that will allow the Americans to stand down."

But when the issue is war and peace, Democrats should be as wary as George Tenet about predicting a "slam dunk." Frank Rich, like so many others, assumes that voters who are against the war will choose the candidate who is against the war. Ah, if only our fellow citizens were indeed so logical, how much easier it would be to forecast elections -- and what a different nation this would be.

In fact, the polling numbers from late February and early March already show a less logical, more disturbing trend. A clear majority still think the war was a mistake. But when the question is which candidate will do best handling the war, McCain wins every time. In an LA Times/Bloomberg (LAT/B) poll, it's no contest. He outpolls Clinton on the question 51-35 and outpolls Obama 47-34. A Washington Post/ABC (WP/ABC) poll pitted McCain only against Obama. Though the result was closer, McCain still won 48-43. Yet 63% in that poll said the war was not worth fighting.

In a New York Times/CBS News (NYT/CBS) poll, 58% said the U.S. should never have attacked Iraq. Yet again McCain gets the highest score on "making the right decisions on Iraq"; 58% are confident about McCain (27% "very" confident), 57% about Obama (only 20% "very" confident), and 50% about Clinton. Among the crucial independent voters, McCain gets 62% confidence, while Obama gets only 54% and Clinton 51%. Though 83% of Democrats say the war was wrong, a whopping 42% are confident McCain will make the right decisions on the war, while 21% of Democrats have no confidence in Obama and the same number no confidence in Clinton.

How to explain these surprising numbers? Part of the explanation lies in the changing view of the war. Over the last year, the number who say the war is going well jumped from 30% to 48% in the LAT/B poll. The NYT/CBS poll records a similar jump since last June, from 22% to 43%. In the WP/ABC poll, the number who see "significant progress" jumped from 31% to 43% in just the last three months. That increase tracks very closely with the growing political fortunes of McCain, who was all but counted out last summer.

Yet in nearly every poll a majority do not expect this progress to produce success for the U.S. 54% say things are still going badly, in the NYT/CBS poll. And when Pew asked, "Should we bring the troops home as soon as possible?" more said yes than no (though just barely, 49-47). So, while the growing perception that "the surge is working" helps McCain, it's hard to credit that alone for the voter's trust in him.

Another key to McCain's success is his view that Iraq is just one front, though the most vital, in a global war on terrorism. On that global front, voters clearly see him as their most trustworthy defender.

When the LAT/B poll asked, "Who would be best at protecting the country from terrorism?", McCain bested Clinton by the wide margin of 54-27 and Obama by the even wider margin of 58-21. In the Pew poll, 43% said Obama would not be tough enough on foreign policy and national security issues. 37% had the same concern about Clinton, but a mere 16% about McCain. Independents showed the same pattern on the issue as the overall electorate.