2008 Results: Fewer White Voters, While Minorities Set Records

By Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet. Posted November 18, 2008.

Keyssar also had reservations about the Ohio figures. In an e-mail, he said:

"It suggests two obvious trends. First, that Obama and the Democrats were able to mobilize and motivate minority voters in a probably unprecedented way. Second, it may suggest that Republicans had more difficulty turning out their voters, but it's hard to be sure about that without knowing who the white voters were who showed up last time and not this time. Maybe it was evangelicals who stayed home because they were unenthused about McCain; or maybe it was previously democratic voters who stayed home because they were unenthused about Obama. The statewide data don't give us a clear picture."

Keyssar said it was too soon to know if the 2008 election was similar to previous presidential elections that saw major shifts in the electorate, such as the 1936 election where many immigrants voted for the first time, or the 1968 election, the first election after enacting the Voting Rights Act, which expanded voting rights to minorities, particularly African Americans.

According to Project Vote's preliminary figures, the minority group that saw the largest nationwide percentage gain in voting were African Americans, who saw a 21 percent increase compared to 2004. In Florida, the increase was 180,000 voters or 20 percent. In Nevada, it was 38,500 voters or 66 percent. In Missouri, where the presidential victor has not yet been decided and ballots are still being cast, it was 158,5000 voters or 72 percent.

El Voto Castigo

The increased voting among Latinos was equally striking. In Pennsylvania, the increase was 64,000 voters or 37 percent, according to the group. In Missouri, it was nearly 31,000 voters or 111 percent. In Colorado, it was nearly 123,000 voters or 71 percent. In Nevada, it was nearly 72,000 voters or 86 percent.

Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice, a pro-immigration reform group based in Washington, D.C., said neither the turnout increase among Latinos -- nor the swing in support to Democrats -- were surprising. Here's how he put it in an e-mail: 

No, I'm not surprised. Telling people you don't like them and don't want them is not a winning electoral strategy. But that is what the Republican Party has been saying to immigrants, Latino immigrants in particular, for the past four years. No surprise, then, that record numbers of Latinos turned out in 2008 and that the swing away from Republicans to Democrats among Latino immigrants in particular was dramatic. Based on comparable studies, Latino immigrants nearly split their vote in 2004, supporting John Kerry over George W. Bush by 52%-48%. In 2008 a larger group of the same voters supported Obama over McCain by 78%-22%. That is a whopping swing of 46%. You might call it "el voto castigo" (the punishment vote) for that is what Latino immigrants did to Republicans who have so mishandled this issue that even John McCain, a past hero on immigration reform, got trounced."

Sharry did not call 2008's apparent increase in minority voters a mandate. However, he did say the election placed federal immigration reform back on Congress' agenda. He said that a failure to deliver on behalf of the newest voters would hurt Democrats.

"Democrats need to be careful," he said. "If first-time voters find that the President they put into office does not deliver for them, many may become disillusioned and stay home next time."

Other Washington analysts also were cautious about drawing conclusions.

"This does not necessarily mean that the shape of the electorate has changed in a more fundamental and lasting way," said Thomas Mann, of the Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank. "It remains to be seen whether the increased turnout among minorities will be sustained over time. Part of these patterns of turnout in battleground states is probably due to the relative effectiveness of voter mobilization efforts."

Mann also said many minority voters are assuming Obama will address their concerns.

"I suspect the increased support of Obama by minorities is partly symbolic, partly an embrace of the Democratic Party," Mann said. "There was little discussion in the campaign about a minority agenda."

See more stories tagged with: election 2008, minority voters, project vote, minority turnout, white turnout, 2008 battleground states

Steven Rosenfeld is a senior fellow at Alternet.org and author of Count My Vote: A Citizen's Guide to Voting (AlterNet Books, 2008).

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