Women Could Reach 'Critical Mass' in Congress

WASHINGTON -- Nominations of female congressional candidates may have fallen off this year, but the field promises to produce the best showing since 1992, when women nearly doubled their ranks in the House and Senate.

"This is the most positive I've ever felt about these races," said Gilda Morales, a researcher at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, a leading think tank for women and elections. "Although we don't have as many women candidates as we did in prior years, the women that are running are really seasoned campaigners."

At the same time, Hillary Clinton's groundbreaking race for her party's presidential nomination and the appointment of Sarah Palin on the GOP vice presidential ballot may also make it easier for voters to vote for a woman. "There isn't a stigma or a newness for women running for office," Morales said. "People see this is normal. These are the way things should be."

This year Morales predicts women -- who currently hold 87 of the 535 seats in Congress, or about 16 percent -- could pick up as many as 13 seats on Election Day.

That means women's share of the House could reach 19 percent, near the 20 percent that political scientist Sue Thomas identified more than a decade ago as a tipping point. In a study of 12 state legislatures Thomas found that when women held at least 1 in 5 state legislative seats, they were more likely to sponsor and push forward women-friendly legislation such as funding for domestic violence shelters and stricter child-support laws.

Marie Wilson, head of the White House Project, a nonpartisan organization in New York that works to elect women to all levels of office, sets that "critical mass" bar higher, at 33 percent. That's closer to women's percentages in legislatures in Scandinavian nations, which have typically led the world in working toward gender equality.

The most likely female gains in these elections are in the House of Representatives, where 71 women currently serve.

Four women -- including Ohio Rep. Deborah Pryce, the highest ranking Republican woman in Congress -- are retiring this year. One other, Democrat Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio, died earlier this year.

Makeup Opportunities

But female candidates have dozens of opportunities to make up for those losses on Nov. 4.

Democrat Marcia Fudge of Ohio won an Oct. 14 special election to run as the Democratic nominee to replace Tubbs Jones, an African American lawyer who had served in Congress for a decade. Fudge, an African American attorney who was mayor of Warrensville Heights, a suburb of Cleveland, is heavily favored to win in the Democratic district, according to Jonathan Parker, political director of EMILY's List, a political action committee that backs pro-choice Democratic women.

Democrat Chellie Pingree of Maine also has her House race virtually sewn up, he said.

Republican Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, nominated to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin, is also a sure bet this fall.

Four others -- Debbie Halvorson of Illinois, Judy Baker of Missouri, Linda Stender of New Jersey and Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio -- are running strong campaigns in open-seat races.

Even though incumbents are notoriously difficult to unseat, a number of women are mounting serious challenges against GOP representatives made vulnerable by souring sentiment toward the party of President Bush. Top competitors include Democrats Christine Jennings of Florida, Kay Barnes in Missouri, Jill Derby and Dina Titus in Nevada, Alice Kryzan in New York, Sam Bennett in Pennsylvania and Darcy Burner in Washington state.

On the Republican side, ex-GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania wants to reclaim her old seat from Democrat Jason Altmire, who unseated her in 2006.

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