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The Next National Nightmare: A Republican Majority Congress in 2015

The Washington Post predicts the Republicans will win big this fall.
 
 
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Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican leader.
Photo Credit: http://www.mcconnell.senate.gov

 

The right-leaning Washington Post’s 2014 election experts are now predicting that Republicans have an 86 percent chance of taking over the U.S. Senate. The  New York Times puts it at 58 percent. Other top pollsters agree with the Times, saying the GOP’s odds of a Senate majority are strong but slimmer. Only Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball strongly disagrees, saying that many Democratic incumbents will not be beaten.

What would it look like if Republicans controlled Congress under President Obama? In the short term, there is no evidence that they would govern with restraint. The specter of veto wars from one end of Pennsylvania Avenue to the other looms large. In the long term, the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court hangs in the balance. And today’s younger voters, who helped elect Obama, will keep seeing a government that can’t solve problems, which pollsters are saying has pushed some millennials to embrace Libertarian values.  

The results could be even worse for the country than Rupert Murdoch's latest corporate takeover attempt, in which his Fox News media empire is seeking to buy Time Warner, Inc. If successful, that merger could mean that right-wing propaganda would creep into much of the media content fed to Americans. That’s discouraging enough. But a government held hostage by Republicans ideologues only benefits the GOP. Too many of today’s Republicans have run for office pledging to obstruct government and to cut public services.

Let’s start with the federal budget.

The latest plan put forth by Rep. Paul Ryan, the House budget architect, distilled “every form of right-wing lunacy,” Democratic Florida Rep. Alan Grayson said in April. Ryan released his 100-page budget bill at 7pm on a Friday and Democrats had to file their amendments by noon the following Monday, Greyson noted, calling it a typical strong-arm tactic. Today, those proposals go nowhere in a Democratic Senate. But what would the GOP do if it could?

“It’s all in there,” Grayson wrote in a Huffington Post column:

“Tax cuts for the rich, the so-called ‘job creators.’ Tax cuts for multinational corporations, the other so-called ‘job creators.’ (Why don’t we ever call them by their real name, job exporters?) Cuts in middle-class tax benefits, like deduction for pension benefits and IRAs, to pay for this (Robin Hood in reverse). Cuts in Medicaid and food stamps, because, you know, the Republicans want to make millions of sick, hungry people more self-reliant. A legal requirement to force the president to cut Social Security benefits and/or raise Social Security taxes, to make Obama do the Republicans’ dirty work for them. Big jumps in student loan interest rates. And massive increases in military expenditures.”

There’s more devilish details. Right now, Medicaid—state-run healthcare for the poor—pays below-market reimbursements. Under Obamacare, many blue states used additional federal funds to extend Medicaid coverage to millions of uninsured people. Ryan’s plan, however, seeks to cut $732 billion in future Medicaid spending. That would hit children, elderly and disabled people the hardest, wrote Bruce Leslie of First Focus Campaign for Children. Similarly, you could expect a GOP-controlled Congress to pass bills ordering federal agencies they don’t like to issue new rules that would stymie specific programs, such as how Obamacare works at Health and Human Services, or gutting new power plant emission standards at EPA.

You could also expect Republican vendettas to try to block Democratic governors from tackling problems that have been frozen in Congress. As the Times reported Thursday, the House’s new Majority Leader, California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, pledged to block funds for California Gov. Jerry Brown’s biggest response to climate change: a high-speed rail link between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Other examples were cited, suggesting that extreme stances by the GOP leadership could become law.

 
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