Netanyahu Is Trying to Influence an American Election -- 5 Reasons It's Not Going to Work
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If Jews make up the same share of the electorate in 2012 as they did in 2008 – 2 percent – this means that 0.4 percent of American voters are Jews who rank Israel among their top 3 issues. Even in Florida, they'd make up only .08 percent of the vote.
3. Conservative White Evangelicals Won't Vote for Obama Anyway
Although we don't have the data necessary for an apples-to-apples comparison – with white Evangelicals ranking the same eleven issues as Jewish voters – it's possible that this group puts more emphasis on the issue of Israel than Jewish Americans. A 2006 poll by Pew found that “seven-in-ten white evangelicals (69%) believe God gave Israel to the Jewish people and a solid majority (59%) believes that Israel is the fulfilment of biblical prophecy.”
According to a Pew poll last year, two-thirds of them said, “helping to protect Israel should be a very important policy goal for the United States in the Middle East” – a much higher share than among other Christian groups. What's more, the study found that the conviction was stronger among more conservative Evangelicals – people who would never vote for Obama anyway.
4. Jewish Voters Aren't Too Worried About Iran; Approve of Obama's Approach
According to the AJC survey, just 4 percent of Jewish voters say that Iran's nuclear program is their most important concern, and only one in seven say it ranks among their top three.
When the survey was conducted in March, Obama's overall support among Jews was 9 points lower than it is in the latest Gallup poll, but the respondents approved of how Obama has handled Iran by a 61-37 margin.
5. Like other Americans, Jews Care About the Economy
Jewish Americans' top four issues, according to the AJC survey, are the economy, health-care, taxes and national security (in that order).
Here's how they rated Obama's performance on those key issues back in March (again, when their overall support for Obama was around 10 points lower than it is today):
Economy: 59 percent approved
Health-care: 62 percent approved
Taxes: 57 percent approved
National Security: 69 percent approved
And while it wasn't a top issue, Jewish voters approved of how Obama has handled the U.S.-Israeli relationship by a 58-40 margin.
All of this is why Netanyahu's attempt to drive a wedge between Jewish voters and Obama is a fool's errand. Give Obama some credit for calling his bluff.