6 Bizarre, Amusing, and Downright Crazy Predictions for the Presidential Race
The guessing game has been in full-tilt over the last week, with everybody near a microphone making calls about the outcome of today's election. Here are some of the oddest prognostications we've seen so far.
1. Predictor: Peggy Noonan /Wall Street Journal
Reasoning:Look, He’s a Crook
“I think it’s Romney. I think he’s stealing in 'like a thief with good tools,' in Walker Percy’s old words. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency. He’s quietly rising, and he’s been rising for a while.”
Honey, we’ve been saying all along that Romney was trying to steal this election. Good to see the right-wingers finally get the picture.
2. Predictor: Dick Morris/FoxNews
Call: Romney (by a landslide)
Reasoning: Liberal Media Conspiracy
”It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history…It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit.”
I dunno, Dick. There’s probably a reason Andrew Sullivan created the Dick Morris Award for “stunningly wrong cultural, political and social predictions.”
3. Predictor: Paddy Power / Irish Betting Company
Reasoning: This Could Make You Rich
A controversial Irish bookmaker thinks Obama is such a sure bet that it plans to pay out $800,000 to gamblers who picked Obama over Mitt Romney a day before the election. Paddy Power announced the plan in ads it placed in Monday’s Irish Times and The Times of London. A spokesperson said:
"Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he's had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than presidential potential."
Hey, why didn't we sign on to that?
4. Predictor: Jay Cost /Weekly Standard:
Reasoning: Polls Don’t Know Shit (and Neither Do I)
“When I started making election predictions eight years ago, I had a very different perspective than I do today. I knew relatively little about the history of presidential elections or the geography of American politics. I had a good background in political science and statistics. So, unsurprisingly in retrospect, I focused on drawing confidence intervals from poll averages. Since then, I have learned substantially more history…and have become much more skeptical of public opinion polls.”
Don’t worry, Jay. You can always go back to historical amnesia if the polls don’t say what you want.
5. Predictor: Jim Cramer / CNBC
Call: Obama (by a landslide)
In a Washington Post round-up of guesses, Cramer predicted that Obama will win a mind-boggling 440 votes in the Electoral College over 98 for Mitt. Never mind that pollsters have been giving the President extremely good odds on winning. Of his logic, Cramer simply says: “the presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest.”
As to WTF is up with Cramer, we have the same question as Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum: What was he smoking, and can we get some of that?
6. Predictor: Blair Robertson / Psychic Medium
Reasoning: None. Uses "Time Projected Empathy" (TPE)
Robertson shared his clairvoyant certainty on the presidential race to the Voice of Russia: "President Obama will be one term president....Obviously, it's going to Mitt Romney." He's so sure that he originally posted the prediction on his blog in 2011 saying that a GOP candidate would win.