Poll-Watch: Pendulum Swings Back as McCain Gets his Convention Bounce; Palin an Early Hit

Posted by AlterNet Staff, AlterNet at 1:30 PM on September 8, 2008.

Barack Obama has held a minute lead in most head-to-head polls since it became clear that he and John McCain would be the presidential contenders, Obama and Biden enjoyed a surge after the Democratic convention, and now it appears that the pendulum is swinging back.

The news that has many progressive hands wringing today, via USA Today and Gallup:

The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

How fickle the electorate must appear when viewed in this context:



Looking a bit deeper, there are a few things to point out.

First, the Gallup numbers -- both its daily tracking poll with McCain up by 5 among registered voters and the Gallup/USA Today poll of likely voters, with McCain suddenly up by 10 -- are outliers, and without Gallup's results, the rolling average remains basically a statistical dead-heat. CNN, Rasmussen and the Hotline/ Diageo polls all show essentially a tied race.

I should also note that Gallup's "likely voter" model has a partisan breakdown as follows:

Republican -34 percent
Democrat -33 percent
Independent - 32 percent

That's suspect; the Dems have enjoyed a partisan advantage for some time. According to Rasmussen, the most recent to poll it, the Dems' advantage has shrunk over the last month but still stands at close to six points:

During August, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans increased two percentage points to 33.2% while the number of Democrats was little changed at 38.9%.

That gives the Democrats a net advantage of 5.7 percentage points, down two points from a month ago and down significantly from the double digit advantage they enjoyed in April and May.

However, the Democrats still enjoy a much bigger advantage today than they did when votes were cast in Election 2004 and an advantage almost identical to their edge in January. In fact, other than the past six months, the current 5.7 percentage point advantage is one of the biggest on record (see history from January 2004 to present).

I'd also caution against putting too much emphasis on the swings produced by these carefully-orchestrated pieces of political theater; the debates are coming and the race remains tight.

Having said that, last week was certainly a positive one for the McCain camp. The much-discussed partisan "enthusiasm gap" appears to be narrowing, with the selection of Sarah Palin having energized a GOP base that had deep misgivings about John McCain.

According to Rasmussen, the selection of Sarah Palin appears to be going over quite well with the electorate; people like the ALaska governor, at least based on what they know of her thus far. With an approval rating of 58 percent, Palin's become the most popular candidate in the contest -- with a higher favorability numbers than Obama (57 percent), McCain (57 percent) and Joe Biden (48 percent).

A week ago, just before he introduced his running mate, just 42% of Republicans had a Very Favorable opinion of their party's nominee. That figure jumped to 54% by this Friday morning. Among unaffiliated voters, favorable opinions of McCain have increased by eleven percentage points in a week--from 54% before the Palin announcement to 65% today.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters now believe that McCain made the right choice when he picked Palin to be his running mate while 32% disagree.

As an untested candidate, there's much more information on Palin to come, and we'll see how long that lasts with indepenents and swing voters as they get to know her in greater depth.

Whatever the general public's view, at least one key GOP constituency views Palin's selection as a home-run:

A recent two-part nationwide email survey by Crosswalk.com, the world's largest Christian audience online, reveals that Republican candidate John McCain has secured the evangelical vote following his announcement of vice presidential candidate, Gov. Sarah Palin. In the weeks preceding the VP pick, McCain held 73% of the evangelical vote and just one week later, was able to gain 7% of the evangelical vote reducing the number of undecided evangelicals by half.

According to the follow-up survey, McCain also gained 8% of the Independent evangelical vote - an increase from 54% to 62%.

A few final observations from Gallup:

McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.

The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33%.

Tagged as: obama, election08, mccain, biden, poll-watch, palin