Pew: Democrats Crushing Republicans in Party Identification Advantage

Kicking off its "Convention Backgrounder" [PDF], the Pew Center for the People and the Press says:

As the 2008 conventions approach, the Democratic Party's advantage in party identification remains as large as it has been over the past two decades, and the Democratic Party's image remains substantially more positive than the GOP's. The Democrats have a 13-point lead in party affiliation (51% vs. 38%) among registered voters, when independents who "lean" to either party are included. Four years ago, the Democrats held only a slim 47% to 44% lead by this same measure.

Over the past four years, the Democrats' gains in party affiliation among younger voters have been particularly striking. In 2004, the Democrats had a 10-point lead among 18-29 year olds (50% to 40%); this more than doubled, to 22 points (55% to 33%), in polling conducted between January and August of 2008.

And while Democratic gains have occurred across all income and education groups, the change from 2004 is particularly notable among middleincome voters. In 2004, Americans with household incomes between $30,000 and $75,000 tilted Republican (48% Republican/lean Republican, 44% Democrat/lean Democrat). Today, the Democrats have built a substantial 14-point lead among these voters (53% to 39%).

While the news continues to be encouraging across a wide range of indicators, there is a slight fall-off between polling done this month and polling done earlier this year--indicating some spillover from Obama's declining lead of John McCain since the immediate aftermath of clinching the primary.  The convention could well help to reverse that trend, however, which is relatively slight compared to the deep hole the Republicans have dug themselves into with such demonic vigor.


Party Favorability: Similar, But Slightly Different

The party-ID shifts are generally comparable to the shifts in favorability rating, but there are differences which are significant. Note that GOP favorability peaked around late 2002/erly 2003, the period from the 2002 elections to the invasion of Iraq, while Dem favorability reached its lowest ebb in late 2005/early 2006. Pew comments:

Currently 57% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 37% express an unfavorable opinion. The Democratic Party's image has remained largely unchanged since the Party took control of Congress a year-and-a-half ago. In January 2007, 54% rated the party favorably, 35% unfavorably.

By comparison, just 43% of Americans offer a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while 49% view the party unfavorably. While far less positive than the Democrats, this represents a slight uptick in GOP favorability from May of this year, when GOP favorability was at a historic low of39%.

White Voters: Not What Versailles Thinks

There's a lot more to the report, with all sorts of cross-tabs, but I want to close this brief teaser post with a look at the parties and the white electorate.  Pew summarizes their findings thus, with all percentages intra-party, and thus running down the columns, not across the rows:





Among the highlights:

• We see that Reps are split 50/50 between men and women, while Dems are almost 60/40 female. With leaners this shifts just a few points.
  
  
• The Dems actually do not enjoy a significantly larger chunk of younger white voters within their own party, with Boomers in the 50-64 age range 3 points more of the Dems share the Reps--almost the exact reverse of the 30-49 age group, while the under-30 intra-party edge for Dems is just 1 percent (2% with leaners).  Thus, the story here is with the overall larger size of the Democratic Party, more than the age distribution.
  
  Still, a slight uptick compared to the 4-point disadvantage in the 30-49 demographic, represents a net intraparty improvement of 5% compared to the previous cohor, a sure sign of significantly stronger young blood, confirming what we've all seen. NOTE: With all voters, the Dem's intra-party share of under-30 voters is 2% above the Reps, and 4% higher with leaners included.
  
  
• The Dems have a 4% intra-party edge in those with a high-school education or less--a finding strikingly at odds with the Versailles narrative of the GOP as today's party of the white working class.
  
  
• The Dems have a dramatically more striking 9% intra-party edge in those making $30k or less.  The intra-party ratios of those over $75k to those under $30k are 2.33 in the GOP, versus 1.22 in the Democratic Party.
  
  In short, the white working class is overwhelmingly dwarfed by the white upper-middle class and higher in the GOP, but is only slightly outnumbered in the Democratic Party.  Exactly the opposite of what Versailles (and even, to some extent, Thomas Frank, would have you believe.

There's lots more good stuff to be found in Pew's report, this is just a taste to whet your appetite.