The Best Poll Of The Year (So Far)

Posted by Chris Bowers, Open Left at 5:05 AM on August 13, 2008.

Gallup just released a very useful poll, one that is, in fact, my favorite poll of the year. What makes this poll different from all other polls released this year is that it is open-ended, and does not include the names of any candidates or parties in the question. Thus, this poll measures hard support for each candidate, and also provides an accurate gauge of third-party support:


Gallup, August 7-10, 903 RVs, MoE 4
Obama: 45%
McCain: 38%
Nader: 1%
Barr: 1%
Clinton: 1%
Other: 2%
None / Won't Vote: 7%
Unsure: 6%

We can tell from this poll that Obama leads by 7% in "hard" support. That is, among voters who seem to have made up their mind to the point where they no longer have to be prompted in their choice, Obama holds a decent advantage. Removing the 7% who indicated they won't vote, and combining the third parties / write ins together, here are the results:

Obama: 47.9%
McCain: 40.4%
Other: 5.3%
Unsure: 6.4%

In addition to Obama's strength among "solid" supporters, it looks like there will be decent third-party support this year. The combined third-party vote will probably be about 4%, but not the 7% currently projected by polls that include third-party candidates. To get the most accurate reading on third-party support, the best option for pollsters is probably to ask Obama, McCain, or "someone else," rather than listing the specific third-party candidates.

Cool stuff. Very useful and informative. I wish there were more open-ended polls like this.

Tagged as: clinton, vote, obama, mccain, poll, nader, barr

Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.