Has Obama Found His Veep?

Posted by Chris Bowers, Open Left at 5:59 AM on July 30, 2008.

Obama visited his campaign's vice-presidential selection offices today. And, in case you hadn't heard, Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia, is being seriously vetted:

Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had "very serious" conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine.

The only people who are confirmed in the vetting process right now are Chris Dodd, Tim Kaine, and Kathleen Sebelius. Keep in mind that Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are confirmed as not part of the vetting process. In fact, Terry McAuliffe has recently all but confirmed that Clinton will not be the Vice-Presidential choice. Given the short list that was leaked recently, that leaves only Evan Bayh as a remaining, fourth possible short list member.

So, Dodd, Kaine, Sebelius, and maybe Bayh are the probable real short list. I would definitely prefer Dodd and Sebelius over Kaine, given that the former two have a more progressive record on virtually everything. About the only value I can see to picking Bayh and Kaine is that they would probably help Obama in their home states, Indiana and Virginia respectively. If Obama were to win the Kerry states (where seems like a virtual lock), plus Iowa (where he seems a virtual lock), plus either Indiana or Virginia, then he would reach 270 and 272 electoral votes, respectively. So, I suppose there is an electoral math argument to be held in their favor, even though Obama just said he wouldn't use that as a criteria in his selection.

Of these four choices, I simply have to conclude that Kaine must be the Obama campaign's top choice right now. The reason is that the Obama campaign also put Jim Webb on the short list, except that Webb refused to submit vetting papers and took his name off the list. If they put two people from Virginia on the list, two people who have a combined eight years in statewide elected office (1.5 and 6.5, as Kaine was the Lt. Gov before he was Governor), then they are really, really, really looking for someone from Virginia. Given that Obama is already narrowly ahead in Virginia, given that Obama has never trailed in Iowa since he announced his campaign, and has led in every single poll of every single Kerry state for two months, it is possible that selecting Kaine would serve as electoral checkmate on McCain.

It would also signal that Obama has no intention to govern as a progressive. As such, it would be difficult to muster up enthusiasm to work for the ticket. By contrast, Obama / Sebelius would be fine, and Obama / Dodd would be exciting. If these are the final three choices, and I think there are good indications that they are the final three choices, I really hope that Obama doesn't go with Kaine. Unfortunately, right now, it looks like he probably will.

Update: The Washington Post claims that Bayh and Biden are being vetted, which contradicts Biden's statement on the matter two and a half weeks ago. I won't go into detail, but I would prefer Biden to Bayh and Kaine. But it isn't an appealing set of choices.

Tagged as: obama, chris dodd, obama ticket, veep, veepstakes, tim kaine, kathleen sebelius

Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.