A New Cold War Brewing in Latin America?

Posted by Revolter, BoRev at 11:23 AM on July 25, 2008.

After being the only country to back out of the South American Defense Council (CSD) during May's founding of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), Colombia has now agreed to join the fledgling initiative. President Uribe reconsidered after speaking with Chilean President Michelle Bachelet and Brazil's Lula during the latter's visit to Colombia. Lula was in Bogota over the weekend to sign Defense and other bilateral cooperation agreements between Colombia and Brazil.

Despite his country's reversal, Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos today stated that he "still does not know what [the CSD] is for" during an event at the Center for American Progress (video). Santos is in Washington in an attempt to exploit the July 2 hostage operation and push Congress to pass the Colombian Free Trade Agreement and grant $Billions more for Plan Colombia, which is already the biggest military partnership in the Americas. (NYT Op-ed co-authored w/ US Defense Secretary Gates).

Meanwhile, much has been made about Chavez sparking a so-called "arms race" by seeking to buy air defense systems and submarines from Russia. Venezuela doesn't need those things, because it's not like US fighter jets have violated Venezuelan airspace or that the world's superpower has a huge armada conducting military exercises off its coasts. It also shouldn't be concerning that armed-to-the-teeth Colombia doesn't worry about pesky little things like international borders when executing U.S.-coordinated airstrikes.

Chavez is in Moscow to sign Venezuela and Russia's own military and economic agreements. New Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called Venezuela-Russia relations, "one of the key factors of security in the (South American) region". He also said that Venezuela was Russia's "most important partner." Anti-U.S. flattery? Maybe, but more believable than, "U.S. Seeks Improved Relations w/ Venezuela." That is how the State Dep. categorized Thomas Shannon's testimony to Congress last week. But when reading all of Shannon's remarks, it is clear that the top Latin American official means "improved relations" and continued funding of "the people of Venezuela," a.k.a. the mostly affluent, non-brown opposition. The only contemplated cooperation between the US and Venezuelan governments is on anti-drug operations.

So how do all these defense collaborations and conflicting agendas co-exist?

Defense Minister Santos stated that Colombia has only joined the CSD as long as 3 conditions are met. 1) Decisions made by the Council must be unanimous. 2) CSD's charter must include a specific condemnation of illegal armed groups (the FARC). 3) It will not accept restrictions on outside alliances (the U.S.). So Santos may just "not be sure" if Colombia plans to utilize the CSD for it's military benefits, or merely to sabotage/neutralize it from within, which is certainly the desire some U.S. military personnel are voicing to the Defense Minister as he pleads for more money.

For it's part, Brazil's push for the CSD is seen as an example of it's role as the moderating force between the South America's left and right as it steps up its leadership in the region. Lula stated that Brazil "must definitively assume responsibility over the integration of South America" and that it should "be a type of bridge that links all of the political currents of South America". The day before he traveled to Colombia, Lula was in Bolivia with Hugo Chavez to provide economic and political support to Evo Morales as he battles the right-wing autonomy movements ahead of the August 10 recall referendum in that country.

The other key Brazilian interest in signing agreements with Colombia and getting them on board the CSD is promoting the material well-being of its arms, energy and aeronautic industries. This is also the overriding Russian concern in Venezuela according to the New York Times. Gazprom, of which Medvedev was once chairman, is one of three Russian energy giants that received exploration rights in Venezuela's oil and gas-rich Orinoco Delta. In addition, the two countries continued discussions on creating a "gas OPEC".

But Russia also has an axe to grind with the U.S. over the Eastern European missile defense system and other intrusions of the US in it's geographical sphere of interest. There are reports that Russia will begin deploying nuclear-capable bombers to Cuba as an f-you over the missile defense plans. And Russian-Venezuela both desire seeking out partners in pushing for a strengthening of the United Nations' authority.

If Russia does increase it's presence in Latin America, it will be interesting to see how the US and others react. But to simplify the various military-technical maneuvers as a regional arms race led by Chavez ignores the financial and political interests of Brazil, the US and Russia. And if it does become an arms race, it shouldn't be placed at the feet of Chavez. After all, it doesn't matter whether you pay for your arms or if they are given to you when the quantity is added up.

Tagged as: venezuela, russia, latin america, united states, south america, colombia, brazil, juan manuel santos, bogota