The Question Isn't Whether the Dems Will Pick up Seats ... the Question is How Many?

Posted by Booman, Booman Tribune at 9:50 AM on July 25, 2008.

According to Chuck Schumer the Democrats are currently 'ahead' in five senate races and 'even or close' in six more. And Schumer sees five additional races where we're "not close yet, but they're getting there." That's sixteen potentially competitive senate races. The races that Schumer does not see as competitive are in Tennessee, Alabama, Idaho, one of the Mississippi races, and both of the Wyoming races. I think it is too early to write off either Bob Tuke in Tennessee (he hasn't secured the nomination yet) or Larry LaRocco in Idaho. On the rest of the races I agree with Schumer that they are not competitive. Still, with eighteen potentially competitive senate races, we shouldn't be talking about getting the 60 seats needed to override filibusters but the 67 needed to override presidential vetoes. Yes, it would require running the table and that is not at all likely. But just the mere potential is news.

Things are no better in the House. To get an idea of how perilous things have become for the Republicans, this is what passes for spin from the NRCC:

"As long as Democrats continue to defy 60 percent of the American people who want to drill for more oil to lower the cost of gasoline and send their vulnerable members home in August without passing an energy bill, they won't come anywhere close to winning in the 75 seats they have been ranting about," said NRCC spokesman.

Even DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen doesn't suggest that the Democrats can win 75 House seats.

Van Hollen, Schumer's House counterpart, expressed confidence that Democrats next year will control more than the 236 House seats they presently hold. Van Hollen said that there are about 75 House districts "in play," of which 25 are being defended by Democrats and 40 to 50 by Republicans...

If Van Hollen steers the Dems to a 50-seat pickup I suppose the NRCC will boast that he didn't come anywhere near winning seventy-five. Of course, he still would have won all the races he considered competitive. To get a sense of the potential for a sea change election, look at this:

The national survey, conducted by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center, showed that 66 percent of Hispanic registered voters supported Obama, compared to 23 percent for Republican John McCain. The other 11 percent were undecided ...

Hispanics have long supported Democratic candidates, though President Bush started to make inroads, picking up about 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004.

If Barack Obama wins 70% of the Latino vote that will be a 10% improvement over John Kerry's performance. And it will be concentrated in swing-states like Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arizona. Back in May, the NDN predicted huge Latino turnout in this fall's election:

A record 11.9 million Hispanic-Americans will vote in this year's presidential elections, a staggering 59 percent more than cast ballots in 2004, a progressive think tank estimated on Wednesday.

With nearly eight in ten Hispanic voters backing Democrats over Republicans in presidential primaries this year, the Latino vote could swing several key battleground states come November, said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network.

Black turnout should be extremely high. And Barack Obama should expect to win at least 95% of their votes. Black turnout alone could give Obama victories in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. How will that affect the downticket races in those states?

The pressure on the Republicans has grown strong enough to result in changed behavior:

Democrats are marching through their legislative agenda as they near the fall election season, scoring several key victories and forcing President Bush to abandon his veto threats.

The latest triumph came Wednesday when Bush dropped his opposition to a massive housing-rescue bill and the House subsequently passed the measure, 272-152. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) can add that win to her party overriding Bush on a water resources bill, the farm bill and an effort to stave off sharp cuts to doctors under Medicare. They also forced the president to back down on GI education benefits and unemployment compensation -- both of them included against his wishes in the emergency war-spending bill.

The Republicans post-midterm strategy was to obstruct every piece of legislation in Congress so that they could go to the people this November and say that the Democrats are ineffective and cannot govern. For the first year and a half they were successful. But their resolve has started to crumble.

Soon, the Obama campaign will roll out a P.R. campaign made up of former Republicans that are endorsing his campaign. That should take Republican demoralization to a new level.

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Tagged as: congress, obama, mccain, nrcc, dccc< chris van hollen, the senate, the house, the hill, hispanic vote

Booman is the proprietor of the Booman Tribune.