Is The Religious Right Losing Its Edge?

Posted by Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report at 1:03 PM on July 21, 2008.

In January, Focus on the Family's James Dobson ruled out voting for John McCain, if he won the Republican nomination. "Speaking as a private individual, I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," Dobson said in a statement. In February, just as McCain was wrapping up the GOP nod, Dobson reiterated that McCain was unacceptable.

As recently as April, Dobson told the WSJ, "I have seen no evidence that Sen. McCain is successfully unifying the Republican Party or drawing conservatives into his fold. To the contrary, he seems intent on driving them away." Dobson added that McCain has "written off" social conservatives.

And yet, Dobson has suddenly discovered that his hatred of McCain is not as intense as his hatred of Barack Obama.

Conservative Christian leader James Dobson has softened his stance against Republican presidential hopeful John McCain, saying he could reverse his position and endorse the Arizona senator despite serious misgivings.

"I never thought I would hear myself saying this," Dobson said in a radio broadcast to air Monday. "... While I am not endorsing Senator John McCain, the possibility is there that I might." ... In an advance copy provided to The Associated Press, Dobson said that while neither candidate is consistent with his views, McCain's positions are closer by a wide margin.

"There's nothing dishonorable in a person rethinking his or her positions, especially in a constantly changing political context," Dobson said in a statement to the AP. "Barack Obama contradicts and threatens everything I believe about the institution of the family and what is best for the nation. His radical positions on life, marriage and national security force me to reevaluate the candidacy of our only other choice, John McCain."

Dobson recognizes that he's done a 180-degree turn here, and told the AP, "If that is a flip-flop, then so be it."

Now, it's tempting to just dismiss this as yet another unprincipled religious-right leader, doing what these clowns always do -- shill for the Republican Party.

But I have to admit, Dobson's reversal actually surprises me. In fact, from a political perspective, Dobson isn't doing himself any favors here.

As a matter of course, we see ideological heavyweights, from both sides of the aisle, denounce a presidential candidate in the primaries, only to see everyone close ranks once there's an official nominee. Grudges are put aside for the sake of political expediency -- partisans invariably hate the other party's candidate more than their own.

But as a rule, that's now how Dobson has operated.

In general, there are two types of religious right leaders: partisans and ideologues. Dobson, who's far more interested in issues than party, is definitely part of the latter.

TV preachers like Pat Robertson are just as extreme in their beliefs as Dobson, but at their core, they're just Republicans who think it's fun to get invited to sit at the big kids' table. Robertson has always gone out of his way to help Republican candidates, even those he disagrees with on important issues, to help advance the party's broader agenda. In the Christian Coalition's infamous voter guides, for example, Robertson would promote GOP moderates by skipping over issues that might anger the religious right's rank and file. It's always been more important to Robertson to elect Republicans than it was to achieve ideological purity.

Dobson's different, or at least, he was. In 1996, for example, the Bob Dole/Jack Kemp ticket wasn't doing much to electrify the far-right GOP base. Robertson was touting the ticket on his 700 Club program and Ralph Reed was hobnobbing on the floor at the Republican National Convention. What about Dobson? He not only steered clear of Dole/Kemp, he publicly announced that he didn't even vote for the Republican ticket, opting instead for the radical Constitution Party.

Robertson sees his GOP allies as his buddies at the country club who invite him to cool parties; Dobson sees his GOP allies as a means to a right-wing end. Robertson wants a seat at the table; Dobson wants to own the table and will let Republicans sit at it if it suits his interests.

Given this, Dobson is acting out of character here. He hates McCain, and always has. In 2000, Dobson even went after McCain's history of adultery, publicly accusing McCain of having a moral character "reminiscent" of Bill Clinton's -- possibly the ultimate insult in conservative circles.

And yet, here we are, just 106 days until the election, and Dobson is not only giving up on his commitment, he's doing so for nothing. In fact, Dobson is proving himself to be a surprisingly cheap date -- McCain can ignore Dobson, Dobson's issues, and Dobson's movement, but when push comes to shove, even after Dobson vowed never to support McCain "under any circumstances," Dobson is still prepared to hold his nose and support the Republican nominee.

For the religious right, this should be a fairly depressing development, and a sign that the movement's influence is seriously on the wane. In this election cycle, the religious right has been completely irrelevant, and the movement hasn't been able to call any of the shots. They couldn't stop the candidate they hate from getting the nomination, and without him so much as lifting a finger, they rallied behind him anyway.

Dobson maintains clout based on fear -- it's his supporters who provide the GOP with foot-soldiers. If Dobson is prepared to back McCain now, without McCain doing anything to earn his support, the fear factor is gone, and the religious right movement starts to look like a paper tiger.

Tagged as: obama, religious right, pat robertson, mccain, republican party, james dobson, religion and politics