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The Real Story from the NYT/CBS Poll: McCain Is Screwed

Posted by Todd Beeton, MyDD.com at 11:11 AM on July 17, 2008.


Despite bad framing by the New York Times, the numbers don't lie: Obama is kicking ass.
080220mccainvlvertical

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The new CBS News/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a 6 point national lead over John McCain but if NYTimes' Adam Nagourney is to be believed, it's doom for Barack Obama, doom I tell ya, with his frontpage headline blaring "Poll Finds Obama Isn't Closing Divide on Race."

The Obama campaign's rapid response team wasted no time in pushing back against this framing with a memo that hit the Times on several points including:

[...] c) Obama's 31% favorable rating among white voters is virtually identical to McCain's, which is at 34%. d) By a 2 to 1 margin over McCain, white voters are more likely to say that Obama would improve America's image in the world e) "Racial dissension" around Mrs. Obama's 24% favorable rating among whites is an extremely odd description given that Mrs. McCain's favorable rating among white voters is 20%. f) Enthusiasm for Obama's candidacy is roughly 2.5 times higher among white voters than is enthusiasm for McCain's. [...]

As Nagourney points out in his response to the Obama campaign, much of the data contained in the campaign's memo wasn't covered in depth by Nagourney in his article, but even looking at the results that he did cite, he could have chosen a far different line of argument, such as, say: "John McCain Unable To Define Himself" or the more to the point "John McCain is Screwed."

Digging into Nagourney's piece we find that among Hispanic voters, McCain, despite attempts at outreach to the community, is still paying a steep price for the anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies of his party.

After a Democratic primary season in which Mr. Obama had difficulty competing for Hispanic votes against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain among Hispanic voters in the likely general election matchup by 62 to 23 percent. Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by more than half of Hispanic Americans, compared with Mr. McCain, whose favorability rating is just under one-quarter. By significant margins, these voters believe that Mr. Obama will do a better job of dealing with immigration; Mr. McCain has been trying to distance himself from Republicans who have advocated a tough policy on permitting illegal immigrants to stay in the country.

Also, this doozy was buried, literally, in the final paragraph:

The poll found that Mr. McCain is yoked to the legacy of President Bush -- majorities believe that Mr. McCain, as president, would continue Mr. Bush's policies in Iraq and on the economy. Mr. Bush's approval rating on the economy is as low as it has been in his presidency, 20 percent; and even while there has been an increase in the number of Americans who think the war is going well, there has been no change in the significantly large number of people who think it was a mistake to have invaded.

How is the McCain campaign handling the reality that the McCain = Bush meme has taken root? Conference calls of the absurd:

On a conference call just now with reporters, McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann compared Barack Obama's insistence on a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq to Bush's insistence that we were winning even as things went badly for years. "I think the American people have had enough of inflexibility and stubbornness in national security policy," Scheunemann said. When asked later by the Huffington Post's Sam Stein whether the campaign was disparaging President Bush, Scheunemann dug in: "We cannot afford to replace one administration that refused for too long to acknowledge failure in Iraq with a candidate that refuses to acknowledge success in Iraq."
Forget "McSame." The candidate they want us to think would really continue Bush's policies is "BushBama."

AlterNet is a nonprofit organization and does not make political endorsements. The opinions expressed by its writers are their own.


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Post by Seth Colter Walls. October 10, 2008.

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BushBama
Posted by: Ryan on Jul 17, 2008 11:21 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Yep, this is the newest try: Rove also tried to creat this link in his WSJ column as far as I can remember. Its a Rovean strategy: strongest point is O is totally opposite Bush, so link him with Bush and his policies. And besides that: when was the last time McCain told Bush his approach sucked and he is stubburn???? Oh yea, in 2000.

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Maven
Posted by: maven on Jul 17, 2008 12:39 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
As my father used to say,

Please refrain from enumerating your juvenile poultry prior to the completion of the process of incubation.

Please people--let's not talk about who's winning--we have months of debates, speeches, swiftboaters, dirty tricks, election tampering, etc., etc., etc. until we can say who will be president--which as you know may NOT be the person who won. Please keep these postings and pollwatchings to a minimum and concentrate on the real issues and where these candidates stand.

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» You are right, but Posted by: Ocean tides
» RE: You are right, but Posted by: maven
» RE: Maven Posted by: Electric Bill
» RE: Maven Posted by: BitcoDavid
» RE: Maven Posted by: Nukie
ONE SCARY THOUGHT
Posted by: VZEQICVA on Jul 17, 2008 2:31 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The true McCain/Bush fans are not conerned with how much or how little McCain knows about anything. They vote for something called values, and/or the guy they would like to have a beer with. They don't set the bar very high. Bush didn't win by much but he got an alarming number of votes. So enter Obama, a smart guy who makes no apologies for it. After 8 years of Bush he takes getting used to. But I like what I see. Thanks, ANNA

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» RE: ONE SCARY THOUGHT Posted by: davewuxi
Kucinich and impeachment - Do this now and pass it on!
Posted by: foreverhope on Jul 17, 2008 8:14 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Kucinich is taking names from supporters of his articles of impeachment against the BUSH/CHENEY Admin.

This is something we can do NOW and it IS important! PLEASE CALL AND PASS THIS ON:

1-202-224-3121

You can also let Rep. Conyers know you appreciate the work he is doing to bring justice and possible indictments against Rove and others in the BUSH regime, same number.

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One "little point"
Posted by: Sissy on Jul 18, 2008 4:01 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
There is one thing that the MSM and all the nay-sayers and pundits can't get away from or get their negative swiftboating arms around. I would like them all to answer a very simple question:

If Obama just got through raising $55 million dollars in the same time period that McCain raises $22 mil., where does that leave us in figuring out who is doing better in this campaign?

A simple answer will do!!

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» RE: One "little point" Posted by: weathered
» 3rd party.. Posted by: walldodger1969
Who conducted the poll Arthur Andersen?
Posted by: weathered on Jul 18, 2008 6:35 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Polls are engineered to sway and skew, if they're a CBS/NYTimes poll they're driven by a paid underwriter and that can never be good.

Pull the plug on all MSM and flourish or stay stuck in the Lie.

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MillValleyGramma
Posted by: millvalleygramma on Jul 18, 2008 7:42 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I'm with Maven here. Complacency and/or over-confidence could kill Obama's chances. The GOP will use caging, voter intimidation, last minute vicious rumors, perhaps an October surprise, and voting machine tampering (if they can get away with it again) to win the White House. They are spending all their resources on McCain, realizing that both Houses of Congress are lost causes to them. We need to act as if it is a very close race; get the youth to actually go to the polls; mobilize the black vote, especially in the South; build the volunteer base in the swing states; and take nothing for granted.

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» RE: MillValleyGramma Posted by: jareilly
TV news sucks
Posted by: Grandma Crabby on Jul 18, 2008 7:54 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I think the corporate media is desperate to have McCain win and the coverage (in general) is hopelessly biased in McCain's favor.

Good grief, that guy has said some of the dumbest things in the world but there's no reporting on it.

But they spend days on the Jessie Jackson nuts comment.

TN news today reminds me of high school gossip mongers. I get so sick of them I want to puke. But since I'd just have to clean it up myself, I refrain. Don't you admire my self control?


VideoProductionTips = Learn Internet Video

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There will be NO LETTING UP by the Obama campaign
Posted by: MTguy on Jul 18, 2008 8:02 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Senator Obama is not stupid. The whole thrust of his grassroots campaign is that we are all in this together. He knows that, as a black man, the GOP will pull out all the stops in the fall, and that it will take something more than a traditional campaign to win in November.

I look forward to the eventual defeat of John McCain for the reason that he simply 'doesn't get it' on so many of our current problems.

I also think having an extremely intelligent, grounded person as our President will be a very refreshing change for the American people and the world.

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McCain Is Screwed
Posted by: bc430 on Jul 18, 2008 10:48 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
McCain Is Screwed
Posted by: bc430 on Jul 18, 2008 10:33 AM
Current rating: Not yet rated [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]

if intelligent, courageous non White racists of all ethnicities are willing to drive the stake through the heart of American White racism NOW. Should one care to accept this mission this task begins with sharing factual info with the most fearful, misinformed, homophobic, racist, relative, friend or associate with whom we have dealings.

We all know that the real issue in this election, polls and all, is not Barack Obama, his wife or Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

The despicable and insidiously shameful big issue confronting America is thiis. The dual incompetences of George Bush and John McCain are approved as presidential because they are "White men," and the overwhelming competence of president Barack Obama is not approved because of a long ago established American standard regarding African Blood - Barack Obama is a "Black" man. Shame on us if one more anybody at any time future is forced to jump through so damn many sensless White racist hoops lest we unsettle the disappointed departed ghost of some un-american confederate ancestor.

The thin veil of deceit has finally fallen from the fact that in the minds behind major decision making in America "Black African Blood" diminishes the quality of personhood. This racist devaluing is compounded when one has the chance to have all of the "All Humans Are Human" worldview trained out of them and be converted to hard line conservatives like say, Clarence, Colin, Condoleeza, Alan Keyes etc. and serve their country with honor and distinction as well behaved, happy, colred, all american creations. Proud trophies of the trials and triumphs of their kind, compassionate, conservative masters, and OMG, they refuse. We have demeaning names and graphic images to put into the public square for Uppity Blacks like Barack and Machelle Obama. Be afraid of their cute lil daughters too. By now the Dixie Chicks shouldn't be the only American citizens who are ashamed.

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But now we know that Obama doesn't intend to end the war . . .
Posted by: billwald on Jul 18, 2008 10:49 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
only to move it to Afganistan.

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McCain Is Screwed (cont'd)
Posted by: bc430 on Jul 18, 2008 10:49 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
That we are yet catering to the well guarded sick White racist phobias, celebrity and illegitimate power worship of the 40s and 50s when images of Black stars couldn't be printed in magazines or shown on TV is shameful. If the network stuck it's neck out and granted a Black entertainer a prime time variety TV show - there were no sponsors, even though more than just White folks dropped green bucks for the sponsor's stuff. Back then it waas blamed on the silliness of the racist south. Now the greatest silly manifestations occur more up south than down south. That we are still kowtowing to the stupid and destructive doctrine of White supremacy in the face of undeniable worldwide realities is indeed shameful. Let's call this thing just what it is and kill it, instead of allowing it to steal from, kill, and destroy more and more people.

The May '08 edition of TIME featured on it's cover a smiling Barack Omama with the caption And The Winner* Is... (that was the primary) John Mcain is a much weaker foe, and there are no more kitchen sinks or toilets left to be thrown now that the brilliant New Yorker cover art has debuted.

A precious few weeks from the national Dem convention no one calling themselves an Obama supporter or advocate of Change should be inviting others to join them for a drowning in the murky waters of fear and unsound goal attainment. An earlier poster's over concern with the down and dirty-nesses of the other side comes to mind. Ok, that's what they do. They can't help themselves and we can't wish our way out of the fight. November is coming. So we prepare to kick the stink out of them this time because WE can't live with ourselves if we lose one more time. And WE WIN!!! They simply cannot win because of how we are willing to think NOW, and what our thinking compels us to do NOW. This time. Our conversation must be all about WINNING. Not playing not to lose, but WINNING. Period. Quite frankly I'm tired of hearing about them, and how they just keep winning and winning and winning.

"YES WE CAN" means we are very aware of our opponent and losing to said opponent is not an option. Only giving up can defeat such a truly unified force of made up minds in prepared people. It is our responsibility to be such a force this November. More focus on their strategy and tatics than our own indicates fear of succeeding.

Remember, you hold the stake, I'll swing the hammer, then I'll hold the stake and you swing the hammer.

Lat's Know our game damn well and play it like we praticed it.

OBAMA '08.

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YE GODS, You are So Naive About the Politics of Race and Religion. . .
Posted by: SkeeterVT1 on Jul 18, 2008 11:12 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
When are progressives going to WAKE UP and face reality?

No, I'm not talking about Obama's chances of beating John McCain -- that's pretty much assured. What I'm talking about is how big -- or, more accurately, how SMALL -- the margin of Obama's victory will be.

It is foolhardy to deny the reality that race still matters in American politics. That the sad, undeniable fact is -- and I really hate to admit that Geraldine Ferraro is right -- that the real reason the gap between Obama and McCain is so small -- and will likely remain that way throughout the campaign -- is the fact that Obama is black.

The CBS News/New York Times Poll cited in the above article isn't the only one that has found that Obama still is having trouble drawing white voter support. It's only the latest in a series of polls showing a stubborn 30 percent of white voters vowing they'll never vote for the Illinois senator for president under any circumstances.

That 30 percent of white voters are mostly conservative, blue-collar, over 55 years of age, have only a high-school education or less and -- oh, yes -- are Christian evangelicals and fundamentalists.

A high proportion of this group has even had the courage to admit to pollsters that they're "uncomfortable" with the idea of an African-American as president. Not to mention the fact that most of this group still believes in the falsehood that Obama is a Muslim.

Nothing Obama does between now and November is going to open up these people's closed, bigoted minds -- and it'll be a waste of his time, energy and money for him to try.

Therefore, Obama has NO CHOICE but to appeal to the broadest possible spectrum of the electorate. He MUST appeal to the center, or he hasn't got a snowball's chance in a blast furnace of getting elected.

But guess what? McCain's got the exact same problem, although for different reasons. HE has virtually no appeal among African American and Hispanic voters -- and white conservatives, especially evangelicals, still don't trust him.

Indeed, many of these same evangelicals refused to vote for Mitt Romney in the GOP primaries -- despite the fact that he was on the same page with them on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage -- solely because of his Mormon faith, which many evangelicals still consider an un-Christian cult.

So McCain must also appeal to the broadest possible spectrum of voters, or else HE has no chance in hell of getting elected.

Bottom line prediction: It's going to be a VERY long Election Night in November.

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What I won't buy into
Posted by: bc430 on Jul 18, 2008 5:34 PM   
Current rating: 3    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
is another day of being dosed with media driven propaganda that serves to maintain the status quo by any lie and misleading non news item necessary.
Prophit, you Wrote:
"DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW BAD THIS IS GOING TO BE. As we speak, Europes trading houses are behind 48 hours in recording transfers from the US. The big money investors are rapidly transferring billions of dollars in assets out to Europe because of what is coming."
"Also understand that the current opinion by economists is that what is coming will be worse than the 1929 crash and the worst the world has ever seen. The curse of researching all of this is those of us who do suffer more because we are not heard."
And;
"Those who remain oblivious and don't want to know are in lalla land longer and suffer less until the end. Then if unprepared they will suffer the ultimate pain. This is going to be worse than you could ever imagine. It will be as basic as trying to find food and water.
It will be that bad. Believe me, its bigger than race, we will all be going through this."
I got that.
Two posts above were titled: "I heard the powers that be were trying to start a race war" and "Ye Gods you are so naive about race and politics" or words close to that.

Why I write what I write the way I write it.
I write to dispel the notions that:
1. There is any truth in what daily gets punped into the compliant american brain.
2. There is something that Barack Obama needs to do to fix some unknown X factor that is wrong with this nation.
3. The U.S. citizens can function as free human beings in a "democratic republic" without it costing each and every citizen more than TAX dollars and the thought of the loss of a luxuary creature comfort or two from time to time.
4. We who think that avoiding overtly White racist people is the same as confronting White racism and destroying it. Not the person - the "ISM."
5. That you don't encounter these lost souls every year, month, week and day; in your home, in the beighborhood, at school, work, places of worship, socially, in government, at family reunions,... they're everywhere. Talk to them about race and the origins of American White Racism because that's the one that now stands in the white House Door vowing...
"Barack Obama will be snuck in here through the back door (slimest of margin) or ova my cold dead body." American White Racism.
I didn't start the fire.
"Those who remain oblivious and don't want to know are in lalla land longer and suffer less until the end. Then if unprepared they will suffer the ultimate pain. This is going to be worse than you could ever imagine. It will be as basic as trying to find food and water."

Oh no, it is because I know the pain and the inevitable 'how much worse' that I write, and speak to distrub those in lala land as often as time permits. Pain me now or pain me later.
No pain - No change.

We all need to know that everything American, from day one, has been and continues to this second to be about RACE; from the Constitution to the economy to who will be America's 44th president. We even quote statistical percentage numbers of how many White racists are going to do this or not do that as if our human rights violators are somehow imune from judgement.
Finally, to the poster who heard that a so called "race war" might be in the future...Yo buddy, that dog won't hunt at all. Where have you been? The race war has never ended. Your sources are just trying to frighten you and cause you to vote for John McCain because he said he knows how to win wars, although he has never won one.
1929 or 2008 the same American White Racist politicians, policies and power brokers have had their way, their wars, took home their profits, stashed others offshore and left the rest of the world with way too many woes, wounds and worries.

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Folks a war monger is a warmonger is a warmonger.
Posted by: Nightstallion on Jul 19, 2008 12:42 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It doesn't matter if he is black, white, pinque, brown, red, blue, purple, yellow, or just plain green. If he is going to use your money in tax dollars to attack someone (FOR ANY PURPOSE!) he is a frigging warmonger.

Oh by the way . . . just because you change the location or country being attacked doesn't mean you aren't a warmonger so stop the obsession and denials already, yea?

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McBraindead gets support........
Posted by: tap17x on Jul 26, 2008 1:58 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
.........from those who identify with him, that is, the stupid and ignorant. They secretly want a candidate who is also stupid and ignorant, one who hides his vast defects behind a screen of toughness. Even idiot voters should know that Bush, who masqueraded as a toughy, was a totally weak, failed fuckup on terrorism, both before and after 9/11. I vividly recall his sitting in total paralysis when the aide told him of the attacks, obviously waiting for someone to tell him what to do. McBraindead is not one bit better.

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