Why Is the Trend Towards Obama?

Posted by Steven Reynolds, The All Spin Zone at 5:17 AM on February 12, 2008.

We Democrats really like our candidate choices. Even now there's rarely a negative word about John Edwards. Still, the votes are moving towards Barack Obama, and I'm thinking it is because that "unity" theme is starting to take hold.

Dick Polman has a short column addressing why Maine voters gave Barack Obama a landslide, and it mirrors my issues with Clinton. Perhaps Dick Polman has hit on some of the reasons for the numbers trending Obama's way. He lists a whole bunch of compalints from a friend in Maine, and those complaints center on Hillary's "Billy baggage" and her being "too caught up in the old politics game." We Democrats seem to like both Obama and Clinton, but we're buying into the unity theme of the Obama campaign, and that's not a theme that works for most Democrats when we think of Hillary Clinton. Make no mistake, the numbers are indeed trending towards Obama, with the national numbers going to Obama for the very first time. From USA Today:

A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday finds a Democratic race between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton that remains too close to call, though Obama is making incremental gains against the New York senator. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats hail each as an exceptional candidate.

. . .

Among Democrats and independents who "lean" Democratic, Obama beats Clinton 47%-44% -- the first time the Illinois senator has led the USA TODAY survey.

. . .

"As Obama has succeeded in some contests, his percentage of the vote has gone up while Sen. Clinton's share of the vote has remained mostly static since before New Hampshire," says Mark Blumenthal, editor of the non-partisan pollster.com.

Democratic voters are delighted with their choices: 12% call Clinton and Obama the best presidential candidate of their lifetimes.

Another 50% say Clinton is "better than most;" 48% say that of Obama.

Lookie there! Again, we Democrats really like our candidates. Not one of them will lose our votes come September, or not many votes, at least. There's not rift like with the Republicans, where radical right wing Christian Clerics and the Limbaugh/Coulter Axis of Evil are threatening and pouting about the John McCain candidacy. We like both of our candidates, but I'm convinced that this "unity" theme of Obama's is starting to resonate.

One thing, we always knew the unity theme was resonating with young voters. Obama has that demographic down cold. And thanks to Sarah Boltuck and her father Richard, even more of those young people are going to vote in Maryland. Seems they agitated for allowing 17 year olds who will be 18 by November ro vote in the Maryland primary. I've no idea how the polling is going in Maryland, but look for a big Obama win there.

So, will this trend towards Obama continue? Will it be pushed by big victories in Maryland, Virginia and DC? I'm not so sure. If Obama is the frontrunner, then the media might take off after him. No, I'm not implying a media conspiracy, but the stories are bigger when they are about the frontrunner, so the focus and the attention is going to ratchet up. Besides, maybe Hillary will cry again in order to get a couple points back in the polls.

Tagged as: democrats, clinton, obama, youth vote

Steven Reynolds is a regular blogger for the All Spin Zone