Clinton Campaign Bets Everything on March 4th Primaries

Posted by Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report at 7:46 AM on February 12, 2008.

By any reasonable measure, today is a pretty important day in the Democratic presidential race. Generally called the "Chesapeake Primary," Dems (and independents) will vote today in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Obama is considered the favorite in all three.

But on the front page of the NYT today, the story isn't about today's three contests; it's about two contests three weeks away.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.

"She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she's out," said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. "The campaign is starting to come to terms with that." Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Alan Patricof, one of Clinton's national finance chairmen, added, "[W]e can't wait to get to March 4."

The meaning of the comment is almost literal -- today's travel schedule for Clinton includes three stops, not in any of today's contests, or in any state that votes in February, but rather, in Texas.

In other words, the firewall has already been identified, and is in the process of being fortified.

The campaign apparently doesn't feel as if it has a lot of choice. The NYT noted that "several" superdelegates who have pledged their support to Clinton conceded yesterday that they are "wavering" in light of Obama's victories over the weekend, and expected success today. (If Obama wins all three of today's contests, he'll have won seven out seven in post-Super Tuesday states.)

It's strategy wrought with risk. If Clinton loses every single contest Super Tuesday and March 4, the campaign will, in effect, say, "Those losses don't count; we're focused on Ohio and Texas." (And if she wins any of those contests, after lowering expectations, it's a pleasant surprise.)

And if all of this sounds kind of familiar to you, it's because we've seen a related strategy on the other side of the aisle: Rudy Giuliani had blown leads in several of the early contests, but consistently argued that those defeats were irrelevant because he was focused on Florida. Clinton appears to be attempting a similar approach to justifying a series of setbacks, though there are important differences: 1) Clinton will finish a competitive second in every February defeat, while Giuliani was losing to Ron Paul; 2) Clinton may actually wins a February contest or two; and 3) Clinton's firewall states may actually come through for her.

Nevertheless, the broader strategy is at least similar. Every time Giuliani lost a state, he said, "Florida." Every time Clinton loses in February, she'll say, "Texas and Ohio." It's all about minimizing the impact of defeats, and focusing attention on the future, because the present isn't going well.

Whether any of this can actually work, of course, remains to be seen.

Tagged as: texas, clinton, obama, ohio, democratic party, giuliani, superdelegates

Steve Benen is a freelance writer/researcher and creator of The Carpetbagger Report. In addition, he is the lead editor of Salon.com's Blog Report, and has been a contributor to Talking Points Memo, Washington Monthly, Crooks & Liars, The American Prospect, and the Guardian.