A Funny Thing Happened On the Way to McCain's Coronation

Posted by Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report at 8:12 AM on February 11, 2008.

The results on Super Tuesday removed all doubt about who would win the Republican presidential nomination -- John McCain's lead was insurmountable. Senators who hate him began endorsing him, Mitt Romney was forced from the race, and the Arizona senator was suddenly free to shift his emphasis to a general-election strategy. It was a done deal.

Realistically, it probably still is, but it's worth considering just how embarrassing yesterday's GOP results were for the presumptive nominee. It was as if Republican voters in three states -- one in the South, one in the West, and one in the Plains -- collectively got together to smack McCain in the face.

Louisiana-- Huckabee 43%, McCain 42%, Romney 6%, Paul 5%

Kansas -- Huckabee 60%, McCain 24%, Paul 11%, Romney 3%

Washington (with 87% of the precincts reporting) -- McCain 26%, Huckabee 24%, Paul 21%, Romney 17%

Sure, McCain wasn't exactly campaigning aggressively in these states -- neither was Huckabee or Paul -- but the obvious frontrunner for the nomination probably expected to have at least a little more support from the party faithful. In Kansas, McCain had Sam Brownback touting his campaign, but that didn't prevent a 36-point drubbing.

For that matter, Washington was supposed to be an easy one for McCain; Huckabee had few built-in advantages here. And yet, McCain apparently won a squeaker. (In what is, in effect, a two-person race, the frontrunner barely won a quarter of the vote. Ouch.)

In response to the poor showing, a campaign spokesperson said last night, "John McCain is the presumptive nominee in this race and our path forward is unchanged by today's results."

That's probably right, but is still has to sting.

It's a reminder of just how much work McCain still has to do. Over the past several days, the Republican establishment has, for the most part, reluctantly come to accept the realities of the political landscape. It was time, they decided, to close ranks.

But rank-and-file conservative Republicans apparently didn't get the memo. This isn't to say McCain will falter before claiming the nomination, but if yesterday proved anything, it's that he's going to have to work for it.

Jonathan Martin added:

Mike Huckabee blew him away in the Kansas caucuses and edged him out in the Louisiana primary. In Washington, which held caucuses, McCain bested Huckabee by two percent. And in a symbolic straw poll vote at CPAC, McCain was narrowly topped by Romney.

None of these results will have significant practical bearing on McCain's seizing the nomination. But the Kansas and, to a much lesser degree, CPAC results underscore the maverick's challenges with conservative activists. And Huckabee's success in Louisiana demonstrate his continued appeal among evangelicals in the South and offer a reminder of why McCain didn't enjoy a clean sweep on Super Tuesday.... [E]ven taking such symbolic hits after a week of questions about McCain's ability to heal old wounds on the right flank is not the way they wanted to start the path to November.

It's also a reminder of a point I've tried to emphasize all week -- McCain is now going to have to move to the right, when he wants to move to the center.

As for Huckabee, he scored another two wins, without even trying very hard (he lacks the resources to mount serious campaigns in any state).

Asked last night why he's still in the race, Huckabee said, "I have nothing else to do." I guess that means he'll be sticking around for a while longer.

Tagged as: huckabee, mccain, kanasas, washington, louisiana, republican party

Steve Benen is a freelance writer/researcher and creator of The Carpetbagger Report. In addition, he is the lead editor of Salon.com's Blog Report, and has been a contributor to Talking Points Memo, Washington Monthly, Crooks & Liars, The American Prospect, and the Guardian.