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Can Howard Dean Save Us From a Brokered Convention?

Posted by Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report at 1:16 PM on February 7, 2008.


What could Dean and the DNC actually tell Clinton or Obama that would compel them to give up and take the VP slot?
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Following up on yesterday's reports hinting at the likelihood of a brokered Democratic convention in August, it's worth keeping in mind that DNC Chairman Howard Dean apparently has some kind of plan to intervene.

The narrow margin in delegates, and the growing likelihood that it will remain close, prompted concern on Wednesday from the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, who said Tuesday night that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton should avoid taking the nominating fight all the way to the party convention in August.

"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April," Mr. Dean said Wednesday on the NY1 cable news channel, "but if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention; that would not be good news for either party."

An adviser to Mr. Dean said Wednesday that he had not discussed the idea with either candidate.

"He was essentially laying down a marker that if need be, he is prepared to step in and try to help resolve the situation," the adviser said.

Dean added, "The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario."

That certainly sounds right to me, but I haven't the foggiest idea what Dean could do.

This is not to say the DNC chair is some kind of figurehead; he's not. In fact, I think Howard Dean has done a great job implementing an important 50-state strategy, raising lots of money for the party, helping recruit some great candidates, etc.

But, as a practical matter, Dean can sit down with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, aiming for "some kind of arrangement," but what kind of deal could he offer? Obviously, both candidates want the Democratic nomination, and there aren't any substitutes. The next best thing, of course, is being the vice presidential nominee, but I'm still skeptical this could happen, especially in "the middle of March or April."

Even if we put aside the fact that the two candidates don't appear to like one another, and have little incentive to pick the other as a running mate, I think there's a more practical problem. By April, Obama and Clinton will probably still be about tied. Given this, I suspect both would tell Dean, "Why should I give up and accept the #2 slot when I'm this close to winning the nomination?"

In short, they shouldn't. If one candidate seems to be dominating by mid-March or April, Dean may find it easier to push one way or another. But if the landscape looks like it does now, I don't see a lot of room for making an "arrangement."

Am I missing something? What could Dean and the DNC actually tell these two that would compel one of them to give up and take the VP slot?

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Tagged as: super delegates, democratic convention, clinton, obama, dean, dnc

Steve Benen is a freelance writer/researcher and creator of The Carpetbagger Report. In addition, he is the lead editor of Salon.com's Blog Report, and has been a contributor to Talking Points Memo, Washington Monthly, Crooks & Liars, The American Prospect, and the Guardian.


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Am I alone...
Posted by: hurricane hugo on Feb 7, 2008 2:34 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
in wanting a brokered convention, floor fights and all?

jdfu!

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» RE: Am I alone... Posted by: desidid
» No Posted by: NoPCZone
» RE: No Posted by: Dale Dressler
» RE: No, you two have Posted by: rhbee
Listen To Fannie Lou Hamer
Posted by: desidid on Feb 7, 2008 5:19 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
address the credentials committee during the 1964 convention. Just scroll down the page for the link. As you listen to her remember that it was only 44 years ago.

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It was just yesterday I said, "Dean doesn't want a brokered Convention"
Posted by: Prairie Waif on Feb 8, 2008 4:08 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Who is Howard Dean to determine who the Democratic Presidential Candidate will be?

The thousands of Democrats that have voted in Primaries and Caucuses are currently waking up to the fact that THERE VOTES MAY NOT COUNT FOR NOTHING in the face of SUPER DELEGATES.

All the work of knocking on doors, putting flyers in mail boxes repeatedly could be for naught as these "SUPER DELEGATES" like Maxine Waters can vote who they are committed to, not the overwhelming choice of their constituents.

And now? Howard Dean tells these young people who participated in RECORD NUMBERS that he will "work something out" as a "brokered convention won't be good for the party?"

Please!

Give me a brokered convention.

John Edwards only SUSPENDED his campaign. While the others squabble, let's put the adult in the White House.

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How It "Used" To Be ~
Posted by: Sissy on Feb 8, 2008 5:04 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It hasn't been all that long ago that all conventions were "brokered". You didn't know who was going to be the nominee until the Convention was over and it was exciting. That doesn't happen anymore and I don't know if the "present day" electorate can handle it.

I remember as a kid listening to the 1956 convention on the radio. That was the first time that I heard the name "John Kennedy" and he came close to getting the vice-presidental nomination. But of course he didn't and went on to 1960.

If the Presidential nomination isn't decided by Convention time, because of present day "attitudes", it could get very nasty. Barack could go there with the popular vote and not the delegate number or vice-versa with Hillary. Given the mood of the people right now and the fact that we know there is going to be wheeling and dealing we could reminisce 1968. The "good ol' boys" in the backroom would not go over and it would be a metophorically speaking "blood bath".

I think this is going to go down in history as one of the most contentious, thrilling elections in our lifetime.

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» RE: How It "Used" To Be ~ Posted by: rhbee
is it possible?
Posted by: robmikejas on Feb 8, 2008 6:07 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
that even if a brokered convention gave us only a few weeks to campaign between the convention and election day, enough true Dems and Independants will come out and vote Democratic regardless of which cantidate heads up the ticket? Aren't we in the end more committed to dumping the Republicans than we are to allowing them to out vote us in November? God help us if we aren't. This country will truly go under with anymore Republican "leadership".

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Sercle
Posted by: sercle on Feb 8, 2008 6:08 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
NOOOOOOOOOO! It's not over; hang on a bit. What about Obama-Bloomberg? Why saddle Barack and Hillary with each other? I doubt that either would want to be vice president, the odd one out will likely prefer to stay in the senate.

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DNC and floor fights
Posted by: richardbelldc on Feb 8, 2008 6:18 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
One of the DNC's major "hidden" functions is to suppress floor debates (aka "fights") at the convention. The party bosses believe that floor fights of any sort are bad for the party. In recent conventions, these efforts have been aimed at suppressing debate over proposed planks for the party platform with which the bosses were uncomfortable. In most cases, the bosses are successful, given the intensity of pressure which they can bring to bear. There are all kinds of concessions that can be offered as carrots, in addition to the threats of pain.

In the case of the two presidential contenders, we appear headed for a very nasty political situation. Assuming that neither candidate breaks out, then the final outcome falls into the hands of the superdelegates, an outcome which favors HRC.

The DNC is not in charge of the convention. The convention is the judge of its own rules, and the courts have been extremely wary of getting into convention rule disputes.

Don't forget that HRC, after first agreeing not to campaign in Michigan and Florida, per the DNC's punishment of those two states for violating party rules about dates, is now calling for delegates from those two states to be seated. And since she just happened to leave her name on the ballot, unlike the other candidates, seating these delegates would be a windfall for HRC.

And it's the other delegates to the convention who will rule on what to do about FL and MI. So a superdelegate pledged to HRC could vote with a majority to seat FL and MI, and then vote with his/her constituents for Obama, knowing that the FL and MI delegates would be enough to put HRC over the top. This kind of horse trading goes on all the time in the Congress, and would hardly be surprising at the convention.

The worst possible outcome is one in which Obama clearly has late momentum, and is then done in by superdelegates who vote against the votes in their home districts. Such an outcome would infuriate the millions of new voters whom Obama has brought into the process.

Would Obama be willing to accept the VP under such conditions, knowing that he could not win a convention because of the superdelegates? House Speaker Tip O'Neil used to say "Politics ain't beanbag," but even Tip might have blanched at the height of the stakes here.

For better or for worse, we are likely to learn a great deal in the coming months about the lust for power versus the long-term health of the country as a whole.

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» Obama WAS on the ballot in FL and... Posted by: sallythewally
WHAT??
Posted by: carcinoid112 on Feb 8, 2008 7:48 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You mean Howard Dean has lost his mind??

I though he was trying to be the antithesis of the back-scratchin', deal-makin' exclusionary people that don't WANT any input from The People.

Howard, WHY did you have to sell out to the "party leadership" when they've been leading us down the road to permanent defeat for years??

Y'all ever notice that there has been NO major TV coverage of the conventions ever since they became CORONATIONS instead of actual (with the votin' and the discussions and more votin') CONVENTIONS??

Heck, if people just freakin' BEHAVE LIKE HUMANS and have a convention without histronics and a rash of Talking Heads pontificating, the Great Mass of voters MIGHT buy the idea that there IS room for input from the 'average guy' and that the Beltway Democratic Elite DOES NOT run the show. Because if the Beltway Democratic Elite DOES run the show?? They'll SCREW IT UP again.

Lately, the ability to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory is the most defining characteristic of the Power Dems. (Impeachment is off the table?? What a STUPID thing to do.) Preventing a REAL convention for the sake of a scripted "show of unity" that's as false as GreatGrandpa's storebought choppers--Oh, hell, they're gonna sell us all out again, aren't they??

Damn.

Sorry, Dr. Dean. Welcome to my s--tlist. It's your fist time there, so watch out for the pins to the liver in my voodoo dolls. I'm NOT a happy voter.

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Superdelegates will broker the convention
Posted by: DennisDalrymple on Feb 8, 2008 9:49 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
If the Democrats can figure a way to fuck up everything on the path to the presidency, they'll find a way.

If Obama and Clinton are close in popularly elected delegates by convention time, the superdelegates (govenors, senators, congresspersons and Democratic Party hacks), will broker the convention, instead of the old-style bosses. Unfortunately, it looks like the Clintons (you'll be getting both) have sewn up the superdelegates, so Hillary will be the nominee. Talk about "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory." If Ms. Clinton is the nominee, every poll shows John Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran McCain will defeat her, while Senator Bomb cannot defeat Obama. By the way, I heard earlier this week a very interesting quote from right wing personality, Pitchfork Pat Buchanan. With regard to the war in Iraq and potentially Iran, "McCain will make Cheney look like Gandhi." Think about it.

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Brokered convention
Posted by: Schroeder on Feb 8, 2008 1:26 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Don't be fooled into thinking that McCain can beat Hillary. I think that is nothing but rhetoric that has been put out there to keep Hillary from being elected. The Republicans will do and say whatever they think will keep a democrat from being in the Whitehouse. I just hope it's not the Democrats who are their own undoing. I don't know how anyone thinks the Republicans can be believed about anything. Limbaugh says he'll support Hillary. Remember when Limbaugh said he was done carrying water for the Republicans. Why does anyone believe anything they say. To be a member of THIS Republican party, the first requirement is that one must be a liar!!!

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I agree with Mr. Dean
Posted by: metryjen on Feb 8, 2008 2:28 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
If this race does go to the convention you run the risk of undermining the authority of the eventual nominee by making it look like they got there via back-room dealings rather than by the will of the people. That will only weaken party unity, making Democrats that much less likely to pull off a win against the Republicans. While I have no idea what it is that he can do, I hope it doesn't come down to that. Hopefully one or the other of the candidates is in a clear winning position by April, enabling him/her to start an effective national campaign.

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» RE: I agree with Mr. Dean Posted by: carcinoid112
A Choice
Posted by: cmaroudas on Feb 8, 2008 8:01 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I think the superdelegates are left with a choice: They can perpetuate the sick feeling most people get when they think of politics (status quo, cronyism, horse trading, favoritism, etc...) or they can vote with the candidate whose philosophy on the important issues captures the imagination of the citizenry and mobilizes them to action. Since an active and informed citizenry is actually quite dangerous to elective officials, I fear they will choose the former, but hope they choose the later.

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So where is the petition to sign?
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Feb 8, 2008 11:17 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
So where is the petition to sign already?

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Isn't it Dean...
Posted by: KeepsonTickn on Feb 9, 2008 6:47 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
...who put the candidates and the party at risk by disenfranchising the Democratic voters of Michigan and Florida? Tell me Howard, what did those people do to deserve that? Now you control the outcome of the election - by re-enfranchising the few who bothered to turn out for a non-primary, you can toss the nomination to Clinton. That is just great.

There is very little time to dismantle the misguided DNC machine that is running the Democratic party off the rails. The Republicans won't be down forever.

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