Super Tuesday Is a Super Stalemate

Posted by Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report at 8:13 AM on February 6, 2008.

Several months ago, the political world put a big, red-ink circle around Feb. 5, 2008, on their calendars. It wouldn't just be Super Tuesday, it would be the biggest day in the history of the presidential primary process. This de facto national primary would answer lingering questions, establish a clear frontrunner, and let the party shift its focus away from the primaries and onto the general election.

Or not. In order for Super Tuesday to resolve anything, there had to be a clear winner. Instead, we have two powerful, well-funded candidates who can both claim, credibly, that they had very good days. As Walter Shapiro put it, "Never before in the long history of presidential politics have so many voters in so many states gone to the polls and their caucus sites on the same day -- and decided so little."

Looking at the landscape the morning after, who won what? As of right now:

Obama won Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, and Utah.

Clinton won Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

New Mexico, for reasons that I don't quite understand, is still too close to call, and with 92% of the precincts reporting, Obama leads Clinton by a few hundred votes.

Any way you slice it, Super Tuesday was effectively a tie. Obama won more states (13 to 8), but Clinton won bigger states (four of the five biggest contests). Clinton narrowly won the day's popular vote (49% to 48%), but Obama narrowly won total state populations (49% to 48%).

As for the metric that really matters -- the delegate count -- it couldn't have been much closer. According to NBC News' Chuck Todd, Obama apparently edged Clinton in Super Tuesday delegates, 841 to 837. That number may swing within 10 delegates in either direction, depending on final results in California, but either way, it's a split decision.

With this in mind, it comes down to bragging rights, and Clinton and Obama each have compelling pitches, bolstered by the results.

From the Obama campaign's perspective...

Obama far exceeded expectations. If you had told the campaign a month ago that on Feb. 5, the senator would walk away with more states won and an edge in delegates, staffers would have done have been delirious with joy. For that matter, even two weeks ago, no one seriously believed Obama would win 13 or 14 Super Tuesday states -- but he did.

What's more, some had begun to suggest Obama could only win in states with large African-American Minnesota, populations. Yesterday, however, Obama won in states like Alaska, Connecticut, Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah -- all of which are overwhelmingly white.

Feb. 5 was supposed to be Clinton's big day -- she even claimed publicly a couple of weeks ago that she'd nail down the nomination on Super Tuesday -- and it wasn't. Advantage: Obama.

...and from the Clinton campaign's perspective.

Obama entered Super Tuesday with all the momentum, and he was poised to score huge wins in competitive states. That didn't happen -- Clinton won four of the top five biggest contests, and the other was Obama's home state. Clinton won California by double-digits, and even won Massachusetts, despite support from the party establishment (Kennedy, Kerry, Patrick) for Obama. With that, Obama's momentum comes to a screeching halt.

Obama may have won more individual contests, but six of those wins were in caucus states, which minimizes their significance.

As for the delegate count, yesterday was effectively a tie, but for the year thus far, it's Clinton who's ahead by about 100 delegates, not Obama. Advantage: Clinton.

Which of these spins is right? They both are.

Indeed, yesterday reinforced suspicions that this competition may very well go all the way to the convention. Neither can put away the other, both have lots of money, and both have demonstrated an ability to score unexpected victories.

Clinton and Obama aren't going anywhere. Super Tuesday only made that more obvious.

Via Open Left:

(click for larger version)

Tagged as: clinton, obama, super tuesday

Steve Benen is a freelance writer/researcher and creator of The Carpetbagger Report. In addition, he is the lead editor of Salon.com's Blog Report, and has been a contributor to Talking Points Memo, Washington Monthly, Crooks & Liars, The American Prospect, and the Guardian.