Obama Ties Hillary Nationally, Leads by 20 in SC and Gets More Secret Service Too

Posted by Steven Reynolds, The All Spin Zone at 6:38 AM on January 8, 2008.

Great news for Barack Obama this morning, and it's likely to be more good news when the New Hampshire results come in tonight. The national poll numbers took a big leap upward for him, and he's leading by a ton in South Carolina. Hey, and they've increased Secret Service protection for Obama, too.

Its still early. The only results we have in New Hampshire are from Dixville Notch, and that counts, but just a little bit. Barack Obama got 7 of the 10 votes there on the Democratic side (McCain won on the Republican side). Perhaps this says something about the entire New Hampshire vote, but I'm willing to wait until the end of the day for that. Still, the USA Today/Gallup poll, the first national one since Barack Obama's Iowa caucus vitory, shows better news. From the Guardian:

Barack Obama has erased Hillary Clinton's once-formidable nationwide advantage and the two Democrats now are tied for their party's lead, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released today.

Obama and Clinton both won 33% in the national poll, which was conducted after the Illinois senator's decisive win in the Iowa caucus, while John Edwards took 20%. The poll also showed Mike Huckabee vaulting to the front of the Republican field on the strength of his Iowa win, with Mitt Romney dropping to single digits after his second-place finish there.

The formidable bounce for Obama, who trailed the former first lady by 18% in Gallup's mid-December national poll, mirrors a SurveyUSA poll released today that shows him taking 50% to Clinton's 30% in the South Carolina primary on January 26. The two were tied in a similar poll taken three weeks ago in the state, where Edwards won in 2004 but now takes only 17%.

The surge of national support for Obama comes at the worst possible time for Clinton, who has often touted her nationwide lead as proof that she is the most viable Democratic candidate in a general election. In addition, the poll's 5% national gain for Edwards offers some evidence that his strategy of aligning with Obama as "change" candidates-thus boxing out Clinton-has worked.

It's also Obama's day because Huckabee is still growing in strength, too. The dream opponent for any Democrat is Mike Huckabee, of course, and while Barack Obama is beating almost any Republican opponent in almost every state polled by Survey USA, he's absolutely creaming Huckabee. (Yeah, the Republican love affair with the Christian Right is coming home to roost with the support of Huckabee, support that, if it is successful, will lead to a Republican losxs bigger than any in a century.)

What's interesting to me is that this is the time chosen by the Secret Service to increase their protection detail for Barack Obama. No, I don't suspect that action is a sign of the strength of the Obama candidacy, but I'm wondering if it does mean something. Here's the Washington Times:

Secret Service presence has increased for Sen. Barack Obama since his dramatic win in Iowa, amid fears over the safety of the man seeking to become America's first black president.

The Illinois senator's security now rivals that of President Bush, with a dozen Secret Service agents wearing dark suits and earpieces leading bomb-sniffing dogs through event venues, sweeping all equipment brought by journalists and flanking the candidate as he plunges into crowds of supporters.

"For many black supporters, there is a lot of anxiety that he will be killed, and it is on people's minds," said Melissa Harris-Lacewell, a Princeton University professor of political science and contemporary black culture.

"You can't make a prediction like this -- like he has 'a 50 percent chance of getting shot.' But the greater his visibility and the greater his access to people, there is a danger," she said.

Another black presidential candidate, Jesse Jackson, drew Secret Service protection because of violent threats during his campaigns in the 1980s. And former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell ruled out a presidential run in part because his wife expressed fears he would be assassinated.

Mr. Obama, who reportedly resisted asking for Secret Service protection but personally requested a detail of agents after friends insisted, has been under federal watch since early last year. No one will say whether he has received an explicit death threat -- his campaign said yesterday only that "we don't comment on security" -- but officials have tracked racist chatter on white-supremacist Web sites.

The Telegraph leads with the assassination threat, including discussion of a couple recent scares that turned out innocent. I am resisting the urge to wonder whether Bill O'Reilly has anything to do with this, but I'm going to conclude that I have no evidence that Bill O'Reilly has any connection to White Supremacy groups.

Hmm, I guess the poll stuff is good news for Obama, but I'm not sure about that increased Secret Service presence. It sure says something bad about the state of our politics in this country, though. Obama seems the least scary of these candidates, at least in the sense that he's doing the least demonizing of the other side. Heck, some criticize him for being too much of a Kumbaya sort of guy, wanting to just "get along," as Rodney King might say.

UPDATE: Obama is expected to win the very coveted Culinary Workers Union endorsement in Nevada tomorrow.

Tagged as: obama, election08, secret service, hillary clinton, edwards, huckabee, new hamsphire, south carolina

Steven Reynolds is a regular blogger for the All Spin Zone