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Russian intelligence leak: U.S. to strike Iran this Friday

Posted by Joshua Holland at 6:04 AM on April 3, 2007.


Joshua Holland: Grain of salt required.
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On Sunday, the Jerusalem Post reported that the U.S. may attack Iran as soon as Friday.

The United States will be ready to launch a missile attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as soon as early this month, perhaps "from 4 a.m. until 4 p.m. on April 6," according to reports in the Russian media on Saturday.

According to Russian intelligence sources, the reports said, the US has devised a plan to attack several targets in Iran, and an assault could be carried out by launching missiles from fighter jets and warships stationed in the Persian Gulf.

Russia's RIA Novosti carried the original story [ht: commenter Heroesall]. According to the report, "American commanders will be ready to carry out the attack in early April, but it will be up to the country's political leadership to decide if and when to attack."

Two weeks earlier, the paper ran a French-language report that predicted the "point of no return" had been reached in late February, when the IAEA was unable to confirm Iran's claim that its nuclear program was solely a civilian endeavor.

But don't buy April 6 in the office when-are-we-going-to-blow-up-Iran's-shit pool just yet. Because the media leak -- true leaks, false leaks, whatever -- is an integral tool in multi-party negotiations, and there's a lot of diplomacy going on behind the scenes between Russia, the EU, the U.S., the UN and Iran.

Read the accounts of veterans of multi-party negotiations -- like Richard Holbrooke's case study of the lead-up to the Dayton Accords -- and it's clear that leaks in that context are often designed not to inform the public, but to send a message to one party or another. You leak stories that might shame one side, or that might lead one side to believe the other will get credit for a breakthrough, or that send a message that time is running out. James Baker, writing about getting the Israelis and the Palestinians to the table in Madrid, described how he'd leak stories that would "lay the dead cat" on one or another party's doorstep if the negotiations fell apart in the early stages.

And, of course, those moves are held very close to the vest; if it's a leak designed to send a message rather than to inform, we won't know that until those on the inside start retiring and/or writing books.

Personally, I don't think the sale's pitch for an attack against Iran has been sufficient thus far -- the drums haven't been beaten hard enough on the domestic front -- to expect anything to happen in the very near future.

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Tagged as: iran, leaks

Joshua Holland is an editor and senior writer at AlterNet.


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Most Russian press is like Fox News on LSD.
Posted by: albrechtkrausse on Apr 3, 2007 6:31 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The Russian press is very similiar to the US press back in the 19th and early 20th century. Very sensationalistic. Relying on 'other' sources and then using them as proof of the story. Similiar to Fox News, Weekly World News, or other tabloid journalism. Although most aren't translated to English you can find some. Read them. They are very funny but for entertainment only. The editorials tow the official country's line with more sensationalism and conspiratorial thinking (lots of intrique by the US or Isreal). Stories of aliens, animal/human hybrids, fantastical stories like 'proof of hell' found in a mine deep drilling operation, sexual oddities, and photos of hot Russian models, etc. They are a bunch of crackpots but it makes some funny reading.

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It's true: all ex-communist countries have sensationalist media
Posted by: Bobsays on Apr 3, 2007 6:44 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The newspapers are full of rumour and hearsay. They out-and-out gossip about anyone and anything with no back-up. When they aren't doing that, then it is sex stories (biggest tits in Kalmikia!), sex photos, sex, sex, sex.

Then there are conspiracies about jews and how they run the world. Or a regular favourite is 'guess the fag'. They usually like to suggest cabals of gays are behind the scenes everywhere.

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It may be sensationalist, but...
Posted by: Rathan47 on Apr 3, 2007 8:10 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I don't think there will be a great deal of build up on this one. I predict:

1) The British/Iran scandal will escalate, not dissipate. And Britain isn't going to wait long. Tony Blair stated on Apr 2, 2007 that the next 48 hrs were critical in deciding how this thing goes. Coincidence that that puts us into Apr 5, 2007 when the Brits make their decision which way to go, the day before the expected "attack"?

2) The Brits will make the first move on this one, with the US backing them up as an ally. I imagine the US will use the excuse that since the Brits are part of the "Coalition of the Willing" any attack on them is an attack on the whole Coalition. It will give them a back door into the war they want without being the instigators. A way to ease the whole thing to the American public.

3) Any attack on Iran is going to backfire in ways the US and UK governments have not foreseen. I honestly think this is pushing us towards an eminent World War. Not today, maybe not even next year, but it's coming. And if you think this isn't about Oil and a NWO, think again...

"Iran has the world's second largest reserves of conventional crude oil at 133 gigabarrels, according to the CIA World Factbook." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

"Iraq has the third largest reserves of conventional oil in the world at 112 gigabarrels." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

So...why are Syria or North Korea not the targets of a potential US invasion? Especially NK, since they have demonstrated that they HAVE nuclear weapons?! And Syria, a country that is well known for it's terrorist ties? Because both have next to nothing when it comes to Oil reserves. It's just not worth bothering to invade them.

Let's also not forget the estimated 9-40 gigabarrels of oil in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, & Uzbekistan that was opened up by the construction of the Afghanistan pipeline now that it is "liberated".

So that would make around 254-285 gigabarrels of reserves available to the US, which will match of exceed the amount of reserves in Saudi Arabia.

My theory is that the US foreign policies are driven not by total lunacy, as they appear to be. Instead, I argue that the US is moving in this direction because they know that as a world economy based off of oil, we're near or have passed Peak Oil. The US is positioning itself to have access to enough oil reserves to continue it's current economic lifestyle. There's certainly no way that the US administration could ever admit to such a policy..."Yes, we regret to announce that we have to make these maneuvers to strengthen our global position with regards to our access to future oil reserves, due to the dwindling level of supplies and the increasing level of consumption not only by ourselves, but especially growing gigantic economies such as China."

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» RE: It may be sensationalist, but... Posted by: oregoncharles
» RE: It may be sensationalist, but... Posted by: Joshua Holland
It may be sensationalist, but... PART II
Posted by: Rathan47 on Apr 3, 2007 8:11 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Permanent military bases, oil pipelines, oil wells being the best secured areas in Iraq, little to no oil being used to pay for restructuring Iraq at this time (due to "insurgent attacks"). Why bother to get the oil out of the ground now when the price is low? Hang on to it and control it for when it's value rockets up, which it will in the future. There's no rush to get it out of the ground to pay for "rebuilding". In fact, I suspect the US administration and military don't give a crap about rebuilding Iraq, or stabilizing it for the future. As long as the oil is under their control, it's worth spending $1 trillion dollars (heck even two or three trillion) of US taxpayer's money in a futile war(s) when you can get an estimated $16.25 trillion in return (an estimate of 250 gigabarrels of oil at a price of $65.00 per barrell). And just wait until oil doubles in price over the next 5-10 years...that would make it $32.50 trillion dollars on an investment of say $3-5 trillion dollars and who knows how many thousands of US lives, and I imagine a millions or so Iraqis/Iranians.


It would also give enough freedom to the US to make a forceful play against Saudi Arabia, who has the US by the balls due to the amount of oil they control. I suspect after Iran is handled, within the next 3-5 years or so we'll suddenly hear about just how many of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudis, and how corrupt and undemocratic their country is...

This Middle East excursion of the US is just Imperial jockeying for resource control...oil. And they will gain control of it, and hold it. The US will NEVER, EVER leave Iraq. And they will put a puppet government in place in Iran (good luck!).

And when the oil sands up here in Canada get cost effective enough to extract at a profit (once the price of oil goes up and extraction methods get better), you can bet the 170 gigabarrels of oil in the Oil Sands up here in poorly defended Canada are going to start looking awfully good...probably within 10-15 yrs I expect.

That's my rant, and until someone proves me wrong, that's what I expect to happen...

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on the other hand...
Posted by: carolcarre on Apr 3, 2007 8:28 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
An unverifiable number (more than 10) of fighter jets flew out of Buckley Air Force base yesterday afternoon...low enough that the engine roar made houses shake and set off car alarms in Boulder...I suppose they were "below the radar." I didn't see any reports of this in our local papers, so it is all a mystery.

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» RE: on the other hand... Posted by: zyxwvut
Surprise this time?
Posted by: oregoncharles on Apr 3, 2007 8:51 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I don't think I agree with Joshua about the amount of build-up this time. Much as we would like to think so, these Bushies aren't stupid. In 2003, they had wide public support and credibility, so they could make their case, however implausible, to the public and go in with a solid, bipartisan vote in Congress.

This time, that won't work. The more warning they give, the less likely they'll be able to do what they want. The attack may well happen when the last carrier group gets to the Gulf.

Fill your tanks (come to think, I'm going to go do that), gas is going out the roof. The oil market is taking the wardrums seriously this time.

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» RE: Surprise this time? Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Surprise this time? Posted by: oregoncharles
Outsourcing outrage
Posted by: eddie torres on Apr 3, 2007 9:15 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Whatever happened to the Great CNN / Fox / MSNBC "Yellow Journalism" Revival? They were literally running disinformation operations for the White House and printing propaganda straight from the horses' mouths (Rove / McClellan / Fleischer) not too long ago.

Like announcing DHS colour-coded terror alerts during the Anthrax investigations, or Miller's "untraceable Middle East WMD" stories during the 2002 midterm elections, or the antics of "God Hates Fags" when the body bags started piling up at Dover Air Force Base.

And now Americans have to rely on the French and Russian press to get their hate on?

The outsourcing has now reached epic proportions.

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Politics as Usual...
Posted by: ~Fiona~ on Apr 3, 2007 10:03 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It seems Mother Russia may not be so much different than the infestation in the white house. More smoke and mirrors and the old distraction game. As long as you're lookin' the other way, you won't be so apt to catch me and what I'm up to.

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