UK Survey of Iraqi Opinion - The Murdochian Spin

Posted by Richard Blair at 12:24 AM on March 18, 2007.

The construction of surveys and analysis of the results is an art form unto itself. Every public opinion poll is influenced by the phrasing of questions, the order in which questions are asked, the skill of the interviewer, underlying personal bias of the responder, and survey sample representation. Most of us aren't survey / polling wonks, and don't claim to be experts at analyzing survey results - but we can read and make some basic interpretations.

Only a Rupert Murdoch publication (The Times, UK) could positively spin the results of a survey that indicates one in four Iraqis have had a family member murdered since the invasion of Iraq four years ago:

MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.

The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week...

"Optimistic"? Hardly...

The Times article is based on a survey conducted by the UK polling firm, Opinion Research Business. It's difficult to draw any specific conclusions about a possible ideological slant of ORB, because their client list appears to be all over the ideology roadmap - which is actually a good thing, at least from my own personal standpoint of determining survey credibility. This particular survey sampled 5,019 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq, and was conducted in face-to-face interviews in all areas of the country. A PDF of the actual survey results and demographics can be found here.

So, with this introduction out of the way, let's examine a few of the stats from the ORB survey, Public Attitudes in Iraq - Four Years On, March 2007. My commentary is in italics. (Note: for raw sectarian analytical purposes, I'm using the Mother Jones demographic breakdown of Iraq - 65% Shia, 15% Sunni, and 20% Kurd.)

• Iraqis are evenly split on the question of whether or not the country is engaged in or close to a civil war. 63% of Sunnis say they are in, or close to, a state of civil war. 49% of the total population and 36% of Shia think the same. (Page 11)
  
  This is a little bit surprising. Througout the survey, it's crystal clear that there's a tremendous divide in opinion between the largest sectarian divisions in Iraq, the Sunni, Shia, and Kurds. So, it seems significant that fully half of the country - and nearly 2/3 of the Sunni population, - believes that they are involved in or close to a civil war.


• 50% of Iraqis experienced the murder or kidnapping of a friend, family member or colleague. (Page 7)
  
  All I can say is - damn. Of the more than 5000 people surveyed, in all areas of the country, half have had someone they know (or love) killed or kidnapped (or in some cases, presumably both). Transpose this number in your mind for a moment, and apply that stat to your own cushy life. Then, consider the following statistic...


• With respect to things being better or worse since Saddam, again, opinions are almost evenly split. As an aggregate, 49% of Iraqis feel things are better. 29% of Sunni say better, 62% say worse or the same. 66% of Shia say better, 26% say worse or the same. (Page 32)
  
  So, where does the murdochian spin of "MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein" come from?? An ex-Fox producer's mind who is now working for the UK Times? 49% isn't even a majority. Ask Al Gore. But watch as Fox News spins this all over their Sunday news shows. There's apparently even a sizeable minority of the previously oppressed Shia who feel that things were better under Saddam. Go figure.


• When asked why they thought that George Bush was implementing the U.S. escalation, only 33% responded, "To increase security and stability in Iraq". 36% see more nefarious motives: to invade a neighboring country, to take out the al-Maliki government, or to "take control of Iraq". (Page 1)
  
  The cynicism of the average Iraqi toward the "surge" clearly shows in this statistic. What's even more interesting is the sectarian breakdown of the answers to this question. Clearly, the Shia believe that Bush is using the escalation of forces as a staging ground for a future invasion of Iran.


• And lastly, launching from the previous question, 53% of Iraqis believe that the security situation in Iraq will be better when the U.S. departs. Only 26% feel it will be worse.
  
  Without doing a moment's worth of research, I'll bet that the attitudes of average Americans are comparable in this regard. The bottom line - a majority of Americans want the U.S. out of Iraq, and a majority of Iraqis want the U.S. out of Iraq. So what are we still doing there? Oh, yeah - that "oil thing".

So, there you have it. Murdoch takes hay that's been processed through a bull, and spins it into pyrite for the Bush regime. The problem for the Murdoch empire is: fewer and fewer people are buying Rupert's brand of "fools gold". The vast majority of Americans, viewing the quagmire from a distance, no longer believe a word the Bush regime says about Iraq. A clear majority of Iraqis, living the quagmire every day close up and personal, never did. They wish to control their own destiny.

It's time for the Democratic Party controlled congress to start paying attention. Once again, supporting the troops (and supporting the Iraqi quest for autonomy) means getting out and bringing the U.S. military home.

Tagged as: iraq, rupert murdoch, survey

Richard Blair is a Philadelphia area freelance writer, and the blogmaster of All Spin Zone.