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Amid 2012 Hopefuls' Career Implosions, Future Looks Bleak for GOP

Posted by Booman, Booman Tribune at 3:18 AM on July 5, 2009.


Where are they going from here?

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Two things have happened recently to drive home the point that the Republican Party is in massive decline. The Democratic Caucus in the U.S. Senate reached sixty members and we saw three potential 2012 GOP presidential careers' unexpectedly implode. Where are they going from here?

The GOP might regain some momentum by winning the governor's races this November in either/both New Jersey and Virginia, but their prospects of picking up seats in the 2010 Senate elections look exceedingly bleak. The Democrats have very strong candidates running in Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, and New Hampshire in what should all be open seats. The Republicans will have to stage upset victories in all four of those seats and find a way to win elections in Delaware, Colorado, or Connecticut to gain any ground. And most of the emerging races are on Republican ground. Texas could become a competitive seat once Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns to run for governor. It remains to be seen if Charlie Crist will prevail in Florida's closed GOP primary. Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina is polling terribly and could become vulnerable if the Democrats find a strong challenger. Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana could have difficulty weathering his diaper-wearing visits to the Cat House if Rep. Charlie Melanchon gets in the race.

The Dems have a little housecleaning to do. They will have contentious primaries in Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. But they should be favored to win all of those races. My best guess is that the Democrats will pick up a net of four to six seats, giving them 64-66 senate seats for the 112th Congress.

The House is another matter.

The Dems will probably lose at least a couple of seats. There are only a handful of vulnerable Republicans left in the House, so unless they have a lot of retirements, the odds are that they'll win more contests than they lose. But, even here, it's highly doubtful that they Republicans can net even a dozen seats, and that will barely change the dynamics of Congress at all. In fact, the most vulnerable Democrats are already voting with the Republicans half the time anyway.

In short, there does not appear to be any near-term relief coming for the Grand Old Party. And, if they take another beating in 2010, their next obstacle will be the post-census redistricting which will be controlled in many states by the Democrats. A bunch of Republican seats will just get carved out of existence for the 2012 races, and a decade of deep minority status will set in.

Finally, if the party doesn't show any signs of life through 2010, then it's likely that no new leaders will emerge to challenge for the presidency. They have no one now, and there is nobody on the horizon. The last time this happened was when Eisenhower failed to recruit an ideological successor and his vice-president lost to Kennedy. The GOP tilted badly to the right and nominated Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964. Goldwater got crushed and the Democrats entered the period of their greatest dominance in the post-war period. We appear to be on a similar trajectory. Which makes this all the funnier.

Digg!

Tagged as: democrats, republicans, gop

Booman is the proprietor of the Booman Tribune.


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What party?
Posted by: Mrs. Jefferson on Jul 5, 2009 6:31 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
No politician today can stand on the shoulders of past patriots and our founders claiming they represent a democracy.

We look like a Police State and Empire Builder.

America has one political party with two right-wings." - Gore Vidal

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

It's Pawlenty
Posted by: sliver on Jul 5, 2009 7:12 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Minnesota gov. Tim Pawlenty is the leading candidate. He acts like a nice guy. He doesn't have any scandals, other than choking the road budget until the 35W bridge collapsed. His main accomplishment has been choking the budget of every school and community in the state, just like the Republicans want to do nationwide.

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the Palin effect
Posted by: awakeallready on Jul 5, 2009 8:16 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It doesn't really matter that they have no leading prospects right now. The typical republican will be able to generate messianic enthusiasm for whomever is annointed by les grande frommages of the party. When the time comes, we'll see a nation of Spongebobs calling their candidate the Best Ever.

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» RE: the Palin effect Posted by: willymack
Party of "So" and the Caucus of "No" must Go!!
Posted by: Purple Girl on Jul 5, 2009 8:31 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Repugs not only say "No" they proudly procalim "SO" when it comes to the will of THE PEOPLE.
Although disgustingly treasonous, this Repug stance has been operating since the Reagan era- nothing new here.
What has become painfully obvious is the fact that even though the liberal minded Dems have rewarded the Dem politicians with the legislative majority- they continue to say "No" to our agenda and demands. Most of those who are working against Us are nothing mroe than Repugs who jumped ship when the Moral majority took over the Republican party during Reagan. Same Corp Whores merely wearing Blue overcoats to conceal their Red Coats.
As Dems it is time to clean house of these covert operatives, who have not only caved, but paved the way for the Neo Cons over the last few decades. Although not an exclusive indicator of these deceivers, If they were avid supporters of Hillary's it's a good chance they are One of Them. "Blue Dogs"- are nothing more than the lapdogs of the Repugs adn their Corp benefactors. But there are others who do not fit either of these catagories- Pelosi.
If the Dems who have now been granted the controlling majority fail in move the Democratic parties agenda forward- they may find numerous 3rd party members flooding both Houses in '10 & '12.
As a Life Long Dem- I am disgusted by the numerous members who have repeatedly told Us "NO"! Don't bother painted these Shit concessions as 'bipartisanship' when you are both working for the same Corp Bosses! As far as I'm concerned their 'Bipartisanship' is more aptly referred to as Treason.
ENOUGH do the damn jobs we sent you to DC to do and stop playing these placating games!Any Dem who votes against a Healthcare Public Option, Votes against Energy reform, votes against EFCA ...Can start looking for a new career!

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Never you fear
Posted by: willymack on Jul 6, 2009 12:13 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The rethugs aren't about to go the way of the Whigs. Not just yet.There's still money and slave labor to be extracted from our people, and they NEED it. They always will.
Forgotten, but not gone is karl rove. Remember him? He's neck deep in the fradulent elections of '00 & '04, and a host of other nasty crimes.
Speaking of ol' Turdblossom, whatever happened to the subpoena ad testificandum ordered to take place in June? Did it ever happen? If it did, I must have been off-world when it did.
Things like the bush crime family's manifold capital crimes have a nasty habit of falling through the crack here, and is a measure of the rethugs' lingering power.

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Aren't we forgetting the OBVIOUS nominee
Posted by: bettyn on Jul 6, 2009 7:31 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
for the Repigs in 2012(or 2016)?

It'll be JEB and ONLY JEB!

You can say "Not another Bush!" However this is the SMART member of the Family...and. by far, the most devious. He's just waiting for the time to strike.

With the entire corporatocracy behind him, how can he fail?

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