Minnesota Update: Not Looking Good for Al Franken?

Posted by tremayne, Open Left at 8:26 AM on November 26, 2008.

Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 231 votes according to the Star Tribune which is 16 more than he started with prior to the recounting. Of course the "real" margin has been almost entirely obscured by the more than 3,600 challenges lodged by the two campaigns. Nevertheless, I am not optimistic because county-by-county results show a clear pattern: the candidate who challenges the most ballots in a county is the candidate who has gained votes in the county. Here are some examples:

There are exceptions to this pattern, mostly counties with a small number of challenges and very small gains or losses. Two other exceptions are Ramsey County where Franken has one more challenge but has gained 34 votes and St. Louis County where Coleman has issued a 100 more challenges but has gained only 57 votes. And Coleman has issued 80 more challenges overall compared to Franken but with 82% of the recount completed that difference alone won't net Franken enough votes.

Nate Silver's models still show Franken pulling ahead, possibly by 100 votes or more. The idea is that Coleman's challenges are negating clear Franken votes while Franken's challenges are more often to ballots ruled void (double votes, scribbles, etc.). But based on the county-by-county patterns it seems optimistic to me. Tell me I'm wrong, please.

Tagged as: minnesota, al franken, election '08, norm coleman, recount, senate race