Obama Receives Large Sotomayor Bump

Posted by Chris Bowers, Open Left at 10:19 AM on May 29, 2009.

Rasmussen had been showing President Obama with lower approval ratings than other outlets. They are still doing so, but the trendlines and demographic crosstabs since Sotomayor's nomination are important (emphasis mine):

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 37% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as President. Twenty-seven percent (27%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +10. That's the first time the President Index rating has reached double digits since March 31 (see trends).

On Tuesday morning, just before announcing Sotomayor's selection, the President's Approval Index rating had fallen to the lowest level yet recorded, +1. Since then, the President's numbers have improved significantly among Hispanic voters and liberal voters. Hispanic voters strongly favor the confirmation of Sotomayor who is in line to become the first Hispanic Justice.

The Daily Kos / Research 2000 poll, some of which was conducted before hte Sotomayor nomination, showed President Obama improving to

from

among Latinos. Next week's results should be more enlightening, as will polls from other news outlets next week.

As I wrote in this post, Sotomayor's nomination, combined with the Republican attacks on her nomination, could potentially result in a long-term shift of Latinos toward Democrats. While early polling is never a great indicator of long-term trends, it is not only the early polling numbers that suggest this. The perception within the Lainto community of unfair, racially based attacks on Sotomayor by non-Hispanic Republicans can become a political identity shaping moment in the Latino community:

Identity politics usually gets portrayed as something transactional. Some group wants something, and you give it to them in exchange for their support. It could be appointing one of them to an office, or supporting their position on some issue.

I wonder if something bigger than that is possible in the case of the Hispanic community. As far as I can tell, the Hispanic political identity is still somewhat malleable, and there's much to be gained in shaping it. One way to do this is to raise the profile of Hispanic left-wing figures, and get them into fights with unappealing non-Hispanic Republicans. It's true of everybody -- if you don't have strong feelings on some issue, but someone you regard as one of your people presents articulate and forceful arguments on that issue, you're going to gravitate towards the position she was arguing for. It works especially well if she's arguing against some obnoxious outsider.

While President Obama is receiving his first real post-inauguration bump from Sotomayor, and while a disproportionate percentage of that bump is coming from Latinos, Republicans keep calling her stupid, unqualified, mean, racist and privileged. Not only is this a total political disaster for Republicans, but any Republican who actually tries to stop the trainwreck is excoriated by his own party.

The enormity of this political opportunity can hardly be overstated. Republicans are handing us a second Terri Schaivo on a silver platter. We need to keep fueling this discussion.

Tagged as: obama, supreme court, sotomayor, bump for obama

Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.