Updated: Feverish speculation about an October Surprise.

Posted by Joshua Holland at 9:45 AM on April 25, 2006.

Over in Peek, Melissa touched on the piece former White House Counsel John Dean had on Findlaw (I got it via The Smirking Chimp) predicting an October Surprise by the Bush administration as it tries to rescue an embattled GOP:

If anyone doubts that Bush, Cheney, Rove and their confidants are planning an "October Surprise" to prevent the Republicans from losing control of Congress, then he or she has not been observing this presidency very closely.

What will that surprise be? It's the most closely held secret of the Administration.

How risky will it be? Bush is a whatever-it-takes risk-taker, the consequences be damned.

Dean throws out a few ideas. Maybe they'll replace Dick Cheney with someone palatable like Rudy Giuliani. Yes, but I don't think that would be enough to do the trick. Perhaps the administration can achieve a grand coalition of "great powers" that will present a united front against Iranian nukes. But diplomacy? Nah. Anyway, Russia seems set against escalating our pissing match. Of course, he adds, there's always the option of starting another war. I just pray Dean's wrong on that one.

"If there is no 'October Surprise,'" he writes, I would be shocked."

Ok, I think it's a bit early, but I'll play along.

My first thought is immigration. But I'm very (very) doubtful the Senate's going to pass anything on that front, and if they do the Tancredo wing in the House is going to make reconciliation a nightmare. Today, the WaPo had a piece about how Bush was pressing for a deal to be struck by Memorial Day, but he doesn't want to take the lead on any specific measure, only to have it die later (that'd be a waste of political capital, see?). They only have 71 legislative days on the calendar and tthe Republicans who set the legislative agenda are themselves way too divided on the issue. Plus, if they were to pass something, whatever it is, it would make some constituency really unhappy.

Of course, they don't need to actually enact any real reforms. They can do something showy. Joshua Bolten, the new Whitehouse Chief of Staff may have tipped the strategy in his "five point plan" to rejuvenate Bush's limp presidency. The very first point, according to Time, is:

DEPLOY GUNS AND BADGES. This is an unabashed play to members of the conservative base who are worried about illegal immigration. Under the banner of homeland security, the White House plans to seek more funding for an extremely visible enforcement crackdown at the Mexican border, including a beefed-up force of agents patrolling on all-terrain vehicles (ATVs). "It'll be more guys with guns and badges," said a proponent of the plan. "Think of the visuals. The President can go down and meet with the new recruits. He can go down to the border and meet with a bunch of guys and go ride around on an ATV."

Are photo ops on the border and some arrests going to be enough? I wonder. They've stirred up the passions on this issue very well. Perhaps too well for Bush to go down to the border, play cowboy for the media and call it a day.

There's a lot of talk about doing whatever it takes to keep a disgruntled Republican base from staying home -- abortion, gay marriage, flag-burning -- the usual.

But I'm going to go with gas prices, because I think those social issues are going to get a lot less traction with gas costs at $3.50 a gallon. There's not all that much they can do in such a short window -- the prices are high because of Bush's saber-rattling towards Iran, a touchy situation in Nigeria and because domestic refining capacity hasn't fully recovered from Katrina. But there is one thing they can do: flip-flop. Bush promised never to tap the Strategic Oil Reserve except in a genuine crisis, but I think I saw Karl Rove standing behind him with his fingers crossed.

Thoughts?

**Update: Earlier today, the administration ordered the DOE to halt deliveries to nthe Strategic Petroleum Reserve until the Fall, when there will be more oil on the market.

Joshua Holland is a staff writer at Alternet and a regular contributor to The Gadflyer.