Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program in '03, Unlikely to Develop a Weapon This Decade

Posted by Amanda Terkel, Think Progress at 1:00 PM on December 3, 2007.

This post, written by Amanda Terkel, orignally appeared on Think Progress

A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released today concludes with "high confidence" that "in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." From the report's findings:

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.

We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.

Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.

The intelligence community's 2005 assessment concluded, inaccurately, that "Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons" and "could produce enough fissile material for a weapon by the end of this decade." But as the new NIE finds, Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability until after 2015 "because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems."

This new NIE is long overdue. It was reportedly completed a year ago, but blocked by the White House. IPS reported:

A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has been held up for more than a year in an effort to force the intelligence community to remove dissenting judgments on the Iranian nuclear programme, and thus make the document more supportive of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney's militarily aggressive policy toward Iran.

As ThinkProgress has documented, the White House's manipulation of the Iran NIE bore a striking resemblance to the controversies that played out over pre-war Iraq intelligence.

But even with Cheney's meddling, this NIE makes it clear that there is no imminent danger from Iran's nuclear program. Newsweek's Howard Fineman recently reported that the intelligence community is trying to send a message to "slow down what the president, most particularly the vice president" in what they "want to do in Iran."

UPDATE: National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley "quickly issued a statement describing the N.I.E. as containing positive news rather than reflecting intelligence mistakes. 'It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,' Mr. Hadley said."

Amanda Terkel is Deputy Research Director at the Center for American Progress and serves as Deputy Editor for The Progress Report and ThinkProgress.org at the Center for American Progress.