McCain Running Scared: Arizona is a Battleground State

Posted by Steven Reynolds, The All Spin Zone at 5:18 PM on July 25, 2008.

John McCain, by all indications, may have troubles winning his own home state of Arizona. And this appears to be not because Bob Barr is leeching votes from McCain, but more because of McCain's flip flopping on immigration issues, thus abandoning the Hispanic vote.

Even the McCain camp is now seeing Arizona as a swing state. Heck, they've been viewing it as such since at least June 10th. Man, that has to rankle Senator McCain (R-Irascible). Here's what the story was then, from the Washington Independent:

In a clear signal that Arizona's 10 electoral votes are up for grabs, the McCain campaign has added Arizona to its list of 24 "battleground states" with their 242 electoral votes.

In a "strategy briefing" video posted Saturday on the McCain campaign website, Rick Davis, the campaign manager, did not include Arizona as one of the 17 "historically Republican states" -- though Arizona has voted Republican in every presidential election but one since 1952. In that one election, of 1996, Bill Clinton carried Arizona by a 2.2 percent margin over Sen. Robert Dole.

In the briefing, Davis avoided mentioning Arizona in his breakdown of McCain's electoral strategy. But he did include Arizona among swing states. "In the Southwest," Davis says in the video, "McCain's history in the region with over 25 years representing the state in Washington combined with his strength with Latinos and his record on immigration, makes him a natural Western state candidate."

As the article notes, polls then had McCain up in Arizona by 11 points or so, but the McCain campaign must have known what it was talking about, for once. Recent fundraising figures show Barack Obama out-fundraised McCain in McCain's home state by $432,000 to $313,000 in June. Sure, McCain has raised more in the state overall than Obama, but we've got a ways to go. The Arizona Republic reports that a Zogby International July 10th online poll shows Obama with a 3 point lead in Arizona, and that is mirrored by the July 23rd Zogby, with Bob Barr getting seven percent, playing the spoiler. The Arizona/Eight Cronkite School poll in June had McCain over Obama by ten points, with many undecideds. (How could voters be undecided about a Senator they'd put in office multiple times?) My goodness, McCain seems to be in trouble in his home state, and might just have to campaign and spend money there. But what's the worst news?

Barack Obama is taking the Latino vote. Yeah, it seems John McCain's frantic flip flops on immigration, an issue where he truly crossed the partisan line and joined with progressives in the past, are coming home to haunt him. Obama is polling, according to the Pew Hispanic Center poll, at a 66% approval, with just 23% approving of McCain. That's stunning. Oh, forget about the headline which touts this as a stunning turnaround for Obama. The numbers for McCain represent the biggest turnaround we can imagine for any candidate. He used to be the darling of Latino/Hispanic voters, and his flip flopping has evidently destroyed his credibility. Here's some of the story from CNN:

Obama's approval rating with registered Latino voters, the nationwide Pew Hispanic Center poll found, is at 66 percent versus 23 percent favoring McCain.

Obama's "strong showing in this survey represents a sharp reversal in his fortunes from the primaries, when Obama lost the Latino vote to Hillary Clinton by a margin of nearly 2-to-1," according to Pew Hispanic Center associate director Mark Hugo Lopez.

Obama's favorability among Latinos is slightly up from a Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May, which showed Obama with 62 percent of Latino voters nationwide, compared with 29 percent for McCain.

"He now appears to be even more popular than Hillary Clinton among Latinos," Lopez said.

Pew Hispanic Center's deputy director, Susan Minushkin, added that Obama is "enjoying broad-based support among Hispanics who don't see great differences by age, by gender, by education, by income."

I'm guessing McCain's flip flops on immigration, in order to appeal to the jingoistic wing of the Republican Party (all of them?), have eroded his support among Latinos. Think for one moment, John McCain. Your flip flopping in order to pander just may have cost you the 10 electoral votes in your own home state. Now wouldn't that be something.

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Steven Reynolds is a regular blogger for the All Spin Zone