VEEPWATCH: Obama Winning High-Stakes Expectations Game

Posted by John Nichols, The Nation at 12:41 PM on August 22, 2008.

Barack Obama is winning the vice presidential race.

No, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president is not preparing to flip his ticket position. He's winning the fight for the centerstage position that a well-managed roll-out of a veep prospect affords a president candidate.

Obama's got everyone waiting to learn the identity of his selection of a running mate for the 2008 Democratic ticket.

Television crews have cameras stationed outside the homes of the "possibles" and even some of the "impossibles." They're at the airport with cameras aimed at Obama's campaign plane.

It's a classic Obama Drama.

And guess who is watching most closely?

John McCain, the man Republicans will run against Obama in the fall.

Of the two major-party presidential contenders, McCain is the advantaged player in this high-stakes poker game.

The Republican gets to see the Democrat's hand hefore he has to show his own.

And, no matter what anyone says, McCain will make his choice with an eye toward trumping Obama's pick.

If Obama picks Hillary Clinton -- who, if McCain used the internet, would be one of the Republican's Facebook friends -- he'll look for an attack dog who can stir the conservative base up to beat not just Obama but the Clintons. Imagine a 21st-century version of Spiro Agnew and you've got the picture. Who? Don't think that there won't be a discussion of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, McCain's wing-man during the primaries, who for all his nice-guy talk has a reputation for being edgy, mean and funny at the same time. And imagine a vice presidential debate between a Clinton and a former governor of Arkansas.

If Obama picks Joe Biden, the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, start thinking stature. McCain's camp will know they need someone who will look good against Bidem. Who has the stature? There will be buzz about Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman -- who, like Biden, really wants to be Secretary of State. But the GOP's social conservatives are not about to accept an ardently pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-environment VP candidate who still sits with the Senate Democratic Caucus. Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, though he also raises hackles from the anti-choice camp, is the logical prospect here. As the former head of Homeland Security, he can go at it with Biden, and he also has appeal to the the blue-collar voters to who Biden will be sent after. An even better, but even less likely prospect? The woman who already has the Secretary of State job: Condoleezza Rice.

If Obama picks Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, McCain can just go with someone vaguely interesting, like Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Yes, Crist has plenty of vulnerabilities. But Democrats can't exploit them. Amusingly, Crist may actually stand to the left of Bayh on several issues. But, in truth, a vice presidential race with Bayh in it will draw little attention.

If Obama picks Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who a few years ago was serving on the Richmond city council, McCain will counter with someone with a longer resume. The goal will be to highlight the relative inexperience of the Democratic ticket. Think Mitt Romney here. Ultimately, that would be a mistake, as Kaine would be able to hold his own against Romney. A smarter choice for McCain would be someone like Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, but the Republican presidential candidate is probably not that creative.

If Obama picks someone that no one has ever heard of, like Texas Congressman Chet Edwards, McCain can counter with someone equally obscure, like Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. This would be the ultimate "who cares?" contest.

And if Obama picks former Vice President Al Gore, well, that's easy: McCain can trump him with Dan Quayle.

John Nichols writes about politics for The Nation magazine as its Washington correspondent.