Why the GOP has already lost 2006

Posted by Jeffrey Feldman at 3:48 AM on March 27, 2006.

I love the smell of framing in the morning. It's the smell of: Victory for the Democrats.

Based on the current dynamic of political debate in America, the Republican Party seems slated to lose big in the 2006 mid-term elections. There may not be a full swing in the House of Representatives, but even if there is a more modest uptick in Democratic seats, the losses will be enough for heads to roll in the upper echalons of the GOP.

To all skeptics of political soothsayers, rest at ease. This tale of impending GOP collapse is no crystal ball incantation or tea leaf reading. The proof is in the framing. And the framing favors Democrats.

The Three Key Frames: Security, Leadership, Spending
In the recent political cycle, Republicans have beaten Democrats by controlling three key frames: security, leadership, and spending. There has been considerable anxiety amongst Democrats about how well the GOP managed to control these frames. Less than a year before Americans head to the polls for the 2006 elections, Democrats now control all three of these frames.

National Security
Analysis: For years, the GOP has controlled the crucial 'national security' frame through the idea of the 'War on Terror.' The key to their control was a massive attempt to define President Bush as a 'wartime' leader through successive use of the military. Heading in to the last election, the GOP dominated this key area of debate by defining anyone who questioned the President as 'weak on defense' or 'undermining the troops.' The mounting U.S. casualty rate, growing concern from military families, and a questionable decision to sell U.S. ports to a little-known Middle Eastern oil state--all three of these issues have resulted in total collapse of the GOP national security frame. Democrats by contrast, have responded by assertions that the real war depends on a stronger focus on security 'at home' and a more nimble approach to fighting Al Qaeda in many places abroad, not just Iraq. These two ideas are now routinely repeated in the media and increasingly shared by most Americans.

Conclusion: Democrats will control national 'security' through 2006 by talking about security at home and the real danger being Al Qaeda, not Iraq.

Leadership
Analysis: Under President Bush, the GOP has defined leadership by saying that good leadership is based on decisive action and strong moral values. Democrats were crippled by these frames as 'flip floppers' and 'secularists.' The NSA domestic spying scandal, the Abramoff bribery scandal and the President's increasingly jingoistic speeches on Iraq have all undercut these the GOP leadership frame. The Democrats, by contrast have advanced two key ideas that are now controlling the debate: leadership as good management, and leadership as following the law. The result is that President Bush is now routinely described as 'incompetent' by the media and the press, and the illegality of his actions--while not clearly established--is constantly debated.

Conclusion: Democrats will control the 'leadership' debate through 2006 by talking about good management and honesty.

Government Spending:
Analysis: For as long as most people can remember, Americans have associated out-of-control government spending with the Democrats and fiscal responsibility with the Republicans. Five years of Republican leadership in the White House and Congress has changed this perception. The Public now equates the Republicans with the financial concepts of 'debt' and 'bribery.' The driving factor in this change has not been the Democrats, per se, but spending in the Iraq War and high-profile financial scandals in large Republican corporations and a Republican controlled Congress. This has resulted in a revolt within the GOP seeking to reclaim 'their party' from the 'radicals' by which they mean: re-establish fiscal conservatism

Conclusion: Democrats will control the 'spending' debate through 2006 by talking about 'radical spending' by the GOP.

Dems Now Control Frames That Delivered Past GOP Victories
The overall conclusion is clear:

The framing favors Democrats

The answer to that question depends largely on factors that operate below and beyond the level of public discussion, and have to do with organizational strategies and institutional effectiveness.

But one thing is clear. The Republicans have lost control of the most powerful weapon in their arsenal: the power to frame the election to their advantage on multiple issues.

The big victory in 2006, therefore, will come after the elections when the GOP consultants finally realize that they no longer control the key frames that have brought their clients victory. They will be fired and a new crop of consultants with new ideas will be hired by new leaders in the GOP. Ken Mehlman will be fired, inevitably, and a new era of scrambling for scraps of the GOP pie will begin.

Suddenly, a media machine obsessed with talking about the woes of the Democrats will start talking about the disarray of the GOP. That story will dog the Republicans heading into 2008.

So, yes indeed. The framing favors Democrats.

The next step for Democrats is (1) to see that they now control these three frames, (2) to believe in their ability to dominate public discussion, and (3) to bring their campaigns up to the highest possible level of high-tech and focused organization.

Organization is the key. As Al Gore often reminds us, Democrats often rest on their laurels in the months before the elections instead of digging in for the final push. Seeing that the GOP has already lost the debate is the first step to realizing that the Democrats are in good position to capitalize on that failure. Debate alone is not enough. Victory in debate must be turned into victory at the polls.

The next step is to get focused and get out there.

Jeffrey Feldman is Editor-in-Chief of Frameshop.