10 Right-Wingers Who Got Election 2012 Hilariously Wrong
We really had a contest between the reality-based community, and a conservative movement that had convinced itself that Obama was so heinous that there was simply no way the American people could possibly re-elect him. Progressives read the polling averages, and read Nate Silver to stave off the anxiety created by a beltway media intent on making the race appear to be a toss-up. As conservatives slept, they dreamed of Ronald Reagan's electoral maps, all painted red, and a defeated, weak Democrat limping off the field of battle, chastened by Real America.
They say the only poll that counts is the final one. And it has revealed a number of conservative pundits – people who make their living gauging the state of the race – to be utterly clueless. So join us, as we take a tour of their wild swings-and-misses. Enjoy the Schadenfreude!
1. Michael Barone
You almost get the sense that Michael Barone, a relatively fact-based analyst, drew the short straw for this one.
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama....
Both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
Barone then called all of the contested states except for Nevada for Mitt Romney.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
2. Peggy Noonan's Good Vibrations
Noonan, who appeared to be fighting back tears when Fox News called Ohio, brought her own unique brand of navel-gazing to this WSJ column:
While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency. He’s quietly rising, and he’s been rising for a while...
Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.
Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.
All the vibrations are right.
3. Karl Rove: Party ID
In the Wall Street Journal, Bush's Brain wrote, “It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.”
Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.
Yup, Democrats only had a 6-point turn-out advantage according to the exit polls.